FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ A poll of likely Florida voters released Wednesday found Democrat Andrew Gillum with a significant 54 percent to 45 percent lead over Republican Ron DeSantis in the governor's race.
The Quinnipiac Univesity Poll shows Gillum has passed the 50 percent threshold among likely Florida voters.
Gillum has gained and DeSantis has slipped since a Sept. 4 survey by Quinnipiac, in which the Democrat had the support of 50 percent and the Republican had the support of 47 percent of likely voters.
The latest poll shows Gillum, currently mayor of Tallahassee, has strong support among multiple demographic groups:
_ Women favor Gillum 59 percent to 39 percent.
_ Black voters favor Gillum 98 percent to 2 percent. If elected, Gillum would be Florida's first black governor.
_ Hispanic voters support him 59 percent to 41 percent.
_ Independents favor the Democrat, 56 percent to 40 percent.
_ Democrats support Gillum 96 percent to 2 percent.
DeSantis, who was a congressman until resigning this month to campaign full time, finds his support concentrated in the Republican Party's base:
_ Men favor DeSantis, 51 percent to 48 percent.
_ Republicans favor their party's nominee 90 percent to 9 percent.
_ White voters back DeSantis 53 percent to 45 percent.
Quinnipiac also found Florida voters view Gillum and DeSantis differently.
Gillum is rated favorably by 55 percent of likely voters surveyed and negatively by 31 percent, for a net positive of 24 points.
Voters have a somewhat unfavorable view of DeSantis, with 42 percent viewing him positively and 47 percent negatively, which puts him 5 points underwater.
"At this point, Gillum's biggest asset is just that voters like him better," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a written analysis of the results.
Each Florida poll released since the Aug. 28 primaries has felt like deja vu: a slim lead for Gillum. Wednesday's report from the Quinnipiac Poll is the ninth in a row that shows him ahead of DeSantis.
On Tuesday, the NBC News/Marist Poll showed Gillum with 48 percent to DeSantis 43 percent.
Previously, Gillum was plus 4, plus 2, plus 6, plus 6, plus 4, plus 3 and plus 2.
In almost every poll, the lead is within the margin of error. When the leads are within the margin of error, the race could be tied _ or DeSantis could actually be slightly ahead.
The margin of error in the Quinnipiac survey is plus or minus 4 percentage points, which means Gillum's 9-point lead is statistically significant. Breakdowns for smaller groups, such as men, women, Democrats and Republicans, have higher margins of error.
In the NBC/Marist poll the margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
"The political environment in Florida, overall, is tipping in the Democrats' favor," Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, said in a statement about the poll he conducted for NBC News.
(In the U.S. Senate race in Florida, NBC/Marist found U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, a Democrat, had 48 percent and his Republican challenger, Gov. Rick Scott, had 45 percent. Quinnipiac had Nelson at 53 percent and Scott at 46 percent.)
That doesn't mean the election is over. It does mean that Gillum supporters need to avoid complacency and a feeling that he's going to win so actually going out and voting isn't critical.
And Republicans are mounting an extensive effort, both in person through DeSantis and via television ads, to sow fear about Gillum.
"All these TV ads don't seem to be helping DeSantis' campaign," Brown said. "Those TV ads, run in an effort to introduce DeSantis to Florida voters, are airing at the same time his favorability numbers are sinking and Mayor Gillum's are rising."
The Quinnipiac poll of 888 likely Florida voters was conducted from Thursday through Monday.
The NBC/Marist poll of 600 likely Florida voters was conducted from Sept. 16-20.
Quinnipiac and Marist, which both used live callers to landline and mobile numbers, are among the best regarded pollsters in the business. Pollster ratings from statisticians at fivethirtyeight.com give Quinnipiac an A-minus and Marist College an A.
