Democrats have opened a 14-point lead over Republicans in a national NPR/PBS News Marist Poll survey asking which party voters would back if the midterms were held today.
Why it matters: It's the largest advantage Democrats have held in a Marist poll since 2017, yet another positive sign for a party looking to make a comeback next year after a cascade of victories earlier this month in off-year elections.
Driving the news: Among 1,291 registered voters, 55% said they'd vote for the Democratic candidate in their House district, compared to 41% who said they'd back the Republican, according to a NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll national survey conducted last week.
- Another 3% said they would vote for another party's candidate, and 1% were unsure.
- When voters were last asked the question, back in November of last year, they were evenly divided, 48% to 48%.
- The Democrats have not held such a commanding lead in the survey since November 2017 — roughly the same point as today in President Trump's first term.
Context: This is a single high-quality poll, but composites show a similar trend, albeit with a narrower Democratic lead.
- FiftyPlusOne's polling average shows Democrats with an about four-point lead, while RealClearPolitics' shows a nearly five-point lead.
- But as noted by NPR, Democrats held a lead of zero to four points throughout the fall of 2022 with former President Biden in the White House. Republicans narrowly captured the House that year.
Friction point: Trump's approval rating has also plummeted to the lowest point of his second term in the poll, with 39% of national adults and 40% of registered voters approving of the job he's doing.
- Among independents, just 24% approve of his performance.
Stunning stat: Democrats hold a commanding lead among independents, with 61% saying they'd back the Democratic candidate compared to just 28% who would support the Republican.
What they're saying: But Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that "[c]herry-picked polls don't win races."
- He added, "House Republicans are on offense, smashing Democrats in fundraising, recruiting stronger candidates, and delivering real solutions."
- The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee did not immediately return Axios' request for comment.
Between the lines: Democrats began the year mired in an identity and favorability crisis, with an apparent leadership vacuum and shut out of power on the Hill.
- Democrats' frustration with their own party and the tensions between its old and new guard are still very much prevalent.
- But elections earlier this month delivered a resounding rebuke to Trump, with Democrats claiming expected victories — but on head-turning margins.
The intrigue: Progressives and moderates alike centered much of their recent campaign messaging on affordability, which Trump has since tried to echo.
- In the NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll survey, one issue stood out as the clear winner when voters were asked what the Trump administration's top priority should be: lowering prices.
- Nearly three out of five (57%) voters said that should be the administration's priority, compared with just 16% who chose controlling immigration and 10% who selected reducing crime.
What we're watching: There is still a year to go, and many more polls, until the 2026 midterms. Across the country, redistricting efforts — and the legal fights they've sparked — could tip the scales.
Methodology: National NPR/PBS News/Marist poll of 1,291 registered voters conducted Nov. 10–13, 2025. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.
