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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Toby Helm Political editor

Poll shows Conservative party 15 points ahead of Labour

Pro and anti-Brexit supporters hold signs and flags while demonstrating outside the Parliament in London, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2019.
Boris Johnson’s Brexit plans were more popular than Theresa May’s, the poll showed. Photograph: Frank Augstein/AP

The Conservatives have opened up a 15-point lead over Labour following the party conference season, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

The Tories are up two points to 38%, compared with a week ago, while Labour is down one point on 23%. The Liberal Democrats have dropped five points to 15%.

Among remain voters, the Liberal Democrats have dropped seven points in a week, with Labour gaining nine points among the same pool of voters who voted to stay in the European Union.

However, Labour has lost as many voters among leavers. According to the survey only 8% of leave voters now say they would back Labour in a general election after a conference season in which the party argued over its Brexit policy.

Boris Johnson continues to enjoy a comfortable lead over Jeremy Corbyn when voters are asked who would make the best prime minister – 36% say Johnson and just 16% Corbyn.

Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, said: “Post-conference the Conservatives are in much the same position as they were going into it with a substantial lead over Labour, based on consolidating the leave vote, while the remain vote continues to oscillate between Labour and Lib Dems.”

Boris Johnson’s Brexit plans, made public last week, were more popular than Theresa May’s deal had been, the poll found. When asked about May’s deal in February, 45% said it was a bad deal and just 14% that it was good for the UK. By contrast only 22% say Johnson’s plan is bad for the UK with 27% saying it is good.

Drummond said there were two main reasons for the contrasting views of the two deals among voters. “The first is that Boris Johnson, who was leader of the leave campaign, supports it, which, regardless of the details, lends it a degree of legitimacy among leave voters. Johnson’s resignation from the cabinet over May’s deal helped to destroy the legitimacy of her deal.

“The second is that Theresa May’s deal had been agreed with the European Union, whereas the EU has already said that the UK proposals are not acceptable.”

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