WASHINGTON _ Political strategists have long known that some issues can be important to voters but have little effect on who they vote for. Other issues can motivate both sides in an election, while still others move partisans on one side more than the other.
The University of Southern California/Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" poll provides new evidence of how issues are playing out in the presidential campaign.
Earlier this month, the poll asked respondents to choose three issues that were especially important to their vote. By far the most cited was the economy, named by 60 percent of respondents.
But although the economy is important to voters, it's not having a powerful effect on their vote, the poll found, suggesting that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have pretty much fought to a draw on it.
By contrast, the Supreme Court appears to be having a strong impact _ in one direction. About one quarter of the respondents listed the future of the court as an important issue. They were significantly more likely to be backing Trump than the average voter and significantly less likely to be supporting Clinton.
Three issues pushed in the opposite direction _ boosting Clinton while hurting Trump:
Respondents who said racial discrimination was one of the most important issues were almost twice as likely to back Clinton as the average voter. Those who listed presidential temperament as a key issue were about 2 { half times more likely to back her. And those who said experience was a key issue were almost three times as likely to back Clinton as the average voter.
Another big issue that boosts Trump is immigration. Those who said immigration was a key issue to them were about 1 { times more likely than average to be backing Trump.
The immigration and Supreme Court issues affect Trump's vote in very different ways, however.
The impact of the Supreme Court is purely partisan. Republicans are more likely to say the high court is a critical issue for them, and they are also more likely to back Trump. The court as an issue doesn't add to Trump's support beyond the impact of partisanship.
Immigration, by contrast, adds to Trump's support beyond what can be accounted for by partisanship. It's a signature issue for him, and it clearly has helped build his following.
The two issues also move different blocs of voters. The Supreme Court as an issue appears to bolster Trump especially among men with college educations and those with higher incomes. The immigration issue helps him most with men who did not go to college and have lower incomes.
Race discrimination appears to help Clinton simply on a partisan basis, rather than anything particular about her. By contrast, those who say that experience and temperament are important to them support her at a level beyond what partisanship accounts for.
Experience appears as a particularly powerful issue in motivating college-educated women to back Clinton. Not surprisingly, racial discrimination as an issue provides the most motivation to minority voters.
