A new poll by Lord Ashcroft of marginal parliamentary seats has put Labour ahead of the Conservatives in one of its most challenging and symbolic London targets, suburban Finchley and Golders Green in the north-western Tory-run borough of Barnet, which it lost by some distance in 2010 having held it since its creation in 1997. Ashcroft has Labour two points in front of the Tories in the area Margaret Thatcher represented for 33 years.
This is the latest poll suggesting Labour is on course to make big gains in the capital. With national surveys stubbornly indicating a neck-and-neck finish between Ed Miliband and David Cameron in the race for Number 10, here in the Big Smoke Labour has been given recent leads of 11 and 14 percent by YouGov and ComRes respectively. Last week, Ashcroft found Labour to be leading in another of its London targets, Harrow East where a 3.5% swing is required to unseat the Tory incumbent Bob Blackman. In Finchley and Golders Green, Labour’s Sarah Sackman needs a swing of no less than 6.2% to oust former Barnet council leader Mike Freer. The Ashcroft snapshot gives her 7%. The seat is tenth on Labour’s London hit list. It would be a huge victory.
The detail is intriguing. Labour is up nine points compared with the 2010 general election result, the Conservatives are down five and the Liberal Democrats down eleven. It seems clear that Labour is benefiting from the Lib Dem decline. The party might also be benefiting from Ukip being up four points to six compared with 2010. Ashcroft’s commentary notes that this is nonetheless the lowest share among the batch of ten marginals across the country he’s looked at, “meaning more direct switching to the main opposition party”. It’s also worth noting, though, that although Ukip’s rise is less marked in London than elsewhere, it has been mostly at Tory expense. The Greens are on four points, underlining how their vote could have a crucial effect on the outcome of some marginals.
As well as issuing the customary statistician’s warning that a two point lead is “well within the margin of error” Ashcroft’s commentary also highlights the rather fascinating finding that optimism about the economy, “both for the country as a whole and for themselves and their families” was highest of all in Finchley and Golders Green. In other words, while voters there seem to agree with Cameron that things are looking up they are going off his government anyway.
See the full detail of the findings here. I’m still studying it myself and will update this article if I uncover further gems. If you spot any, let me know.
