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The National (Scotland)
The National (Scotland)
National
James Walker

Poll predicts big boost for SNP and commanding lead over Scottish Labour

THE SNP continue to enjoy a strong lead over Scottish Labour in both Holyrood and Westminster voting intentions, according to a new poll.

Carried out by Survation on behalf of Edinburgh-based research agency Diffley Partnership, the survey asked more than 1000 Scots how they would vote in Scottish Parliament and Westminster parliament elections as well as how they would vote in an independence referendum.

In voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament ahead of the 2026 election, the SNP lead with 36% backing the party in the constituency vote.

On the regional list, support stands at 28% – ahead of Scottish Labour, who poll at 22% in both ballots. 

It represents a boost for John Swinney, with The National's recent poll putting support for the party at 35% and 25% in constituency and list vote respectively.

The Scottish Tories, meanwhile, come in at 13% for the constituency vote and 16% on the list.

Reform UK registers double-digit support, with 14% of respondents saying they would vote for the party in the constituency ballot and 12% in the list vote.

The Scottish Greens have 5% in constituency but 10% in list vote (below).

(Image: Diffley Partnership)

When it comes to Westminster voting intention, 33% would support the SNP, 24% would support Labour, 15% would vote for Reform UK, and 14% for the Conservatives.

The poll also surveyed how respondents would vote in an independence referendum, with 49% reporting that they would vote Yes and 51% would vote No.

Scott Edgar, senior research manager at the Diffley Partnership said: “With the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections just a year away, this poll shows the SNP are in pole position to remain the largest party at Holyrood come next May.

“Despite Labour’s efforts in recent months, they have yet to make significant inroads into the SNP’s lead.”

He added: “Meanwhile, Reform UK’s polling performance indicates that they will be a force to be reckoned with at next year’s election.

“As the election approaches, all parties will be looking to seize the narrative, clearly articulate their vision, and make a compelling pitch to voters in what promises to be one of the most consequential elections since devolution.”

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