Labor and the Liberals are locked in a battle for Australia's newest electorate, but polling has defied apparent strong community support for a well-known Nationals candidate.
YouGov polling has Labor's Trish Cook and Liberal Matt Moran running neck and neck in WA's seat of Bullwinkel, with 32 per cent of the vote each and the Nationals' Mia Davies - a previous state opposition leader - with eight per cent.
But on the ground in the vast 9500sq km seat, ranging from Perth's working-class eastern suburbs, over leafy hills communities, and deep into the Wheatbelt, it's a different story.
Voters are reeling over Labor's decision to ban live sheep export from 2028, and the surging cost of living, a lack of social services and crime are all top of mind.
Hills resident Mike O'Connell said he was normally a Liberal voter, but he was likely to vote for Ms Davies in the May 3 federal election.
"She has got leadership experience at a state level, she's very personable, and she knows what she's talking about," he told AAP.
"I don't think (Liberal leader Peter) Dutton is the right choice; he's going to lose us this election."
The retired surveyor said the soaring cost of living and the ban on live sheep exports, which Ms Davies opposes, were key issues for him.
The live export ban was also top of mind for Wheatbelt resident Rianne Kluth.
"A lot of our farmers around here rely on sheep export and a lot of them will lose money," she said.
The graduate accountant expressed her frustration with the policy, saying it catered to city folk "who don't have a clue about farming".
Ms Kluth said the lack of affordable rentals in rural towns, such as Northam where she works, was also a concern.
She said Ms Davies, who was raised on a farm and was previously the Western Australian Nationals leader, was likely to get her vote because of her stance against the ban.
"I like Mia ... she's actually been out with the people ... she's really made a point of talking to people."
The YouGov modelling found 45 per cent of people polled in Bullwinkel were opposed to the live export ban, with 39 per cent in favour and 16 per cent undecided.
Long-time Northam local and former butcher Henk Braun is also against the legislation and said it would have a massive impact on the rural economy.
"What's going to happen to all our farmers ... we'll have nothing left," he said.
"It keeps a lot of people employed."
The retired businessman, who was tight-lipped about who he would vote for, said towns in the region were already "dying" and he wants political parties to improve services.
"A lot of places are deteriorating, shops are closing and businesses are going broke," he said.
York resident and teacher Karen Barrett was undecided about who to select on the ballot slip come Saturday, but she said she "loved" Ms Davies and that she had done "amazing things for the Wheatbelt region".
She said she'd like to see more money spent on health, education and social services in rural areas.
"We've had new teachers come into the area and they can't even get in to see a doctor," she said.
At the foot of the Perth hills, former policeman and retired High Wycombe local Robin Moore also threw his support behind Ms Davies.
"She seems a very switched-on lady ... she seems very caring and interested in what we are," he said.
"She gets out there and she does things and talks to people."
Mr Moore, who normally votes for the Liberal Party, said he wanted to see health services improved in Perth's eastern suburbs.
"I'm getting older and hospital (ambulance ramping) and not getting in ... we've had some good experiences ... but it needs to get better," he said.
Despite his conservative leanings, Mr Moore said he supported the live sheep export ban due to the conditions the animals often endured on ships.
"The only way we can do it is cold, refrigerated ... we've got to change our way of shipping those sheep," he said.
Medical receptionist Helen Lane, who also lives in High Wycombe, said Ms Davies had impressed her during the campaign and "from the word 'go' she has been very out there in the community".
She said she was concerned about the ban on live sheep export and its potential impact on rural communities.
Ms Lane would like to see more police on the beat in her suburb and funding for social services.
"We live down the bottom of the hills, the top of the hills get a lot of the services the bottom of the hills doesn't," she said.
Ms Lane said her family was struggling with the rising cost of living.
"Unless you're getting highly paid, it would be almost impossible to make ends meet," she said.
The AAP-commissioned polling of 3000 people across 12 electorates nationwide shows the coalition on top in Bullwinkwel with 51.5 per cent of the vote to Labor's 48.5 per cent two-party preferred.
But YouGov Director of Public Data and Affairs Paul Smith said the seat was too close to call and could go to either party.
Most of Bullwinkel sits east of the Darling Range, which divides Perth and the inland rural areas, but less than 15 per cent of voters live there with the remainder located in the city boundaries.
The new electorate is named in honour of Lieutenant Colonel Vivian (Statham) Bullwinkel, who was a civilian and military nurse and prisoner of World War II.
