WASHINGTON _ Republicans are at risk of a wipeout in California's six most hotly contested congressional races, a new poll shows _ a result that could radically reshape the state's political map.
But the poll, conducted for the Los Angeles Times by the University of California, Berkeley's Institute for Governmental Studies, also underscores how close many of the contests remain.
The Democratic tide threatens to swamp congressional districts in Southern California's suburbs that Republicans have controlled for decades. That would significantly boost Democrats' chances of gaining the additional 23 seats they need to win a majority in the House.
But if the tide ebbs only slightly, the GOP could emerge with much of its control intact.
With the Nov. 6 midterm election less than five weeks away, none of the Republicans in the state's six most competitive races have a lead. The Democrats lead strongly in one race and narrowly in three others, and two are dead heats, the Berkeley IGS Poll shows.
Reaction to President Donald Trump appears to drive the results more than any specific issue and, in most cases, more than the individual candidates.
"Trump appears to be the main motivator for voters in these districts," said Mark DiCamillo, the veteran pollster who directs the Berkeley IGS Poll. "He's the central figure."
The overall picture could change between now and Election Day, but voting by mail begins statewide Monday, and at least four major factors appear set:
Trump is unpopular across most of the targeted districts _ four covering parts of Orange and San Diego counties, one in Los Angeles County and one centered on Modesto in the Central Valley. That's especially true among college-educated white voters, whose alienation from the president has turned suburban districts across the country into risky territory for the GOP, and among Latinos and women.
The share of voters who approve of Trump serves as a ceiling for Republican candidates, with none able to surpass Trump's level by more than a few percentage points. That's a significant problem for Republicans; in five of the six districts, a majority of likely voters disapprove of the president's performance in office.
In several districts, the president's opponents appear more motivated to vote than his supporters, with self-identified liberals and registered Democrats more likely to say that they view this year's election as more important than previous contests.
Strategies that the Republicans had hoped would bolster their campaigns and make up for the undertow from the president appear to have had limited effect, at best.
A ballot measure to repeal the recent increase in the state's gas tax, which Republican operatives had hoped would spur turnout on their side, trails in each of the six highly competitive districts. Money for the repeal campaign has largely dried up as Republicans have diverted funds elsewhere.
A national effort by Republicans to portray untested Democratic candidates as unacceptably liberal appears also to have come up short in these California districts. Several Democratic newcomers have maintained favorable images with voters, the poll showed.
As a result of those factors, Republicans lag behind in two of the four congressional districts that cover most of Orange County, long the heartland of California conservatism. The other two contests are dead heats.
A longtime Republican incumbent, Rep. Steve Knight of Palmdale, is narrowly trailing in the only remaining L.A.-centered district the GOP holds.
Farther north, Republican Rep. Jeff Denham of Turlock, who has survived previous attempts by Democrats to oust him, is behind by a slim margin in his Central Valley race.
The poll's findings in those districts are generally similar to other recent nonpartisan, publicly released surveys.
In addition to those six districts, the poll also surveyed the races in two Republican-held seats that have not been top Democratic targets but have attracted considerable attention.
Rep. Devin Nunes of Tulare, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, has a 53 percent-45 percent lead in his race against Andrew Janz, a county prosecutor. Nunes' role as a defender of Trump has opened a gusher of money for Janz, despite the district's heavily Republican tilt.
But in another heavily Republican district, Rep. Duncan Hunter of Alpine has only a 49 percent-47 percent lead over Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, a result well within the poll's margin of error.
Hunter was recently indicted on federal fraud charges, turning a usually safe Republican district in inland San Diego and Riverside counties into a competitive one. He recently released a sharply negative ad that tries to link Campa-Najjar, who is of Mexican and Palestinian ancestry, to terrorism.
The poll findings in the six most contested districts illustrate the forces that have put the GOP's majority at risk.
