WASHINGTON _ A new poll Tuesday carried good news for Democrats in Pennsylvania, showing Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in the presidential race there and Katie McGinty holding a 4-point advantage in her bid to oust incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey.
The Monmouth University poll is roughly in line with other recent surveys, most of which found Clinton leading Trump by 10 to 11 points statewide and McGinty with a small edge in the Senate contest.
The new poll has a 4.9 percent margin of error, suggesting the Senate race might still be a near dead heat as the campaign enters its final two months.
Clinton's wider margin _ 48 to 40 among likely voters _ is fueled by a massive advantage in Philadelphia and its vote-rich suburbs, which account for around 40 percent of the statewide vote. She leads by 62 to 29 in Southeastern Pennsylvania, the poll found _ bigger than the 25-point margin President Barack Obama scored there in his victory four years ago.
"It looks like Clinton's got a friend in Pennsylvania, particularly in the Philly suburbs," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. "A key factor boosting Clinton's support there is that about half of white voters in this region have a college degree, compared to just over one-third in the rest of the state."
Trump does better in the northeast, central and western parts of Pennsylvania, but those areas have fewer voters. One of the GOP nominee's sons, Eric Trump, was scheduled to be in Clarks Summit on Tuesday to open the campaign's northeast Pennsylvania office.
Clinton, the poll found, has a 10-point lead among college-educated whites, traditionally a strong GOP voting bloc. Trump leads by 57-32 among whites without college degrees.
The biggest gap came among racial groups: 90 percent of Pennsylvania blacks, Hispanics and Asians support Clinton, while 5 percent back Trump. Among whites, Trump leads, 48-39.
Clinton's surge since the Democratic convention has coincided with gains for McGinty, who is trying to capture a Senate seat that could help determine control of the chamber.
Among likely Pennsylvania voters, McGinty leads Toomey, 45-41, with 8 percent backing Libertarian Edward Clifford and 9 percent undecided, the Monmouth poll found. Several other surveys have found McGinty with a 1- to 3-point edge _ essentially leaving the race in the balance as Labor Day approaches _ though one outlier, from Emerson College, gave Toomey a seven-point advantage.
Both campaigns see an opportunity in the fact that McGinty, Gov. Tom Wolf's former chief of staff, remains widely unknown: 56 percent of those surveyed by Monmouth had no opinion of her. Democrats believe that once she gets her name out, more Clinton supporters will come to like her and add to her lead. But Republicans believe they can define McGinty on their terms, and push voters toward Toomey.
With Democrats showing concern about their chances in Ohio's Senate race and pulling some television ads there, Pennsylvania becomes more critical to their hopes of retaking the Senate.
Toomey leads with independents, 41-29, and has a positive job approval rating, 43-35, Monmouth found, but Democrats have a voter registration edge and believe Clinton will give them a major down-ballot advantage, if she maintains her lead.
The Monmouth poll surveyed 402 likely voters between Aug. 26 and 29.
