Joe Biden may be losing his lone front-runner status and is effectively tied with Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren at the top of the Democratic 2020 primary field, according to a Monmouth University poll released Monday.
But the survey has a large margin of error and is an outlier compared with other recent national polls, which have usually shown Biden with at least a several-point lead.
National support for the former vice president among likely Democratic voters interviewed by Monmouth dropped to 19% from 32% compared with Monmouth's previous poll in June, while Warren, of Massachusetts, jumped to 20% from 15% and Sanders, of Vermont, leaped to 20% from 14%.
Survey numbers indicated that previous supporters of Biden, a moderate, might be flipping to Warren and Sanders, two of the most progressive candidates in the race, rather than opting for less left-wing alternatives.
Sen. Kamala Harris of California held steady at 8% support in the Monmouth survey, Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey claimed 4% support and entrepreneur Andrew Yang registered 3% support.
"Moderate voters, who have been paying less attention, seem to be expressing doubts about Biden. But they are swinging more toward one of the left-leaning contenders with high name recognition rather than toward a lesser known candidate who might be more in line with them politically," Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.
The survey has a 5.7% margin of error, suggesting more polling is needed to confirm whether a shift is really taking place in the race and whether Biden, Sanders and Warren are as competitive as they appear.
"This poll is an outlier that is contradicted by every measure of the national average," a Biden campaign spokesman said in a statement, citing a Real Clear Politics aggregation of multiple recent national polls showing Biden leading Warren and Sanders by more than 10% on average.
Murray acknowledged the poll's unusual result, adding, "It's important to keep in mind this is just one snapshot from one poll."
Biden has largely maintained a commanding lead in previous presidential primary polls even as questions have mounted about his frequent verbal slips on the campaign trail and the often-lukewarm views of his supporters.
The poll was conducted through live telephone interviews from Aug. 16-20 with 298 registered voters who identify as Democrats or who lean toward the party.
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