Energy and climate issues are front and centre for both sides of politics. The government is struggling with pushback from some regional communities against the rollout of transmission lines and wind farms. At the same time, it will soon have to produce its 2035 target under the Paris climate agreement.
Meanwhile, the opposition is fractured over whether to stick by its commitment to net zero emissions by 2050.
We’re joined on this podcast by the Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen.
Bowen remains upbeat about the energy transition:
I think it’s going well. We can always do more, and there’s always more effort needed, and the job is far from done. But when you consider what we’ve achieved over the first three years, I would say pleased but not yet satisfied. We are, by and large, on track for our 43% emissions reduction. Just in the last couple of days, [we saw] some excellent figures about the amount of new renewable electricity connected to the grid.
So all this is a very significant turnaround from 2022, but I’m far from mission accomplished. There’s still a lot more to do. This is the biggest economic transition our country has undertaken, and you don’t sort of do three years’ work and put your feet up. This is a constant effort, and that’s an effort on which I’m entirely focused.
Just now, Bowen is also focused on preliminary work for Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ Economic Reform Roundtable in August.
Bowen announces he’ll be hosting two roundtables of his own, feeding into the broad August 19-21 meeting:
I’ll be holding two roundtables, one on electricity and one on climate adaptation which is going to be an increasing focus of this government and future governments because tragically the world has left it too late to avoid the impacts of climate change. We can hopefully avoid the worst catastrophic impacts of more than 1.5 and two to three degrees.
On Australia’s bid to host COP in 2026, Bowen says Australia has the votes against the other contender, Turkey, but the decision-making process is informal:
So one of the things about the process to decide COPs I’ve learnt is it’s quite opaque and there’s no particular timeline and no particular rules to the ballot. I will say, I’ve said before, we’ve got very strong support. So it’s not a matter of going out and getting more votes.
But there’s no agreed time or process for a ballot. It’s meant to work on a consensus, sort of an old world, sort of gentlemanly approach to say whoever loses will withdraw.
Despite the delay, Bowen says Australia will be ready if the bid is successful:
Having said that, the last COP, the one last year, in Azerbaijan, I accept Azerbaijan is a very different country to Australia, but they found out a year in advance as well. And logistically, physically, they put on a very good COP, that can be done. And I know the premier of South Australia is a very, very enthusiastic supporter of hosting the COP.
On the Coalition potentially dropping its commitment to net zero by 2050, Bowen calls the target “the basic bare minimum of action”:
It’s what the IPCC has recommended as what is absolutely necessary to avoid […] the worst catastrophic impacts of [climate change]. To be debating net zero 2050 in Australia this year is like debating whether the sun should come up. It’s the most basic framework. It’s nowhere near enough.
I think it’s got strong support, and it’s retaining that. I mean, the election result shows that. That we were told to get on with it. Keep going basically.
I’ll just say this. At least Peter Dutton had net zero as a policy objective. I mean, Sussan may be indicating maybe she won’t. I used to say Peter Dutton would be the worst prime minister for climate than Tony Abbott, and I was correct at the time, but now it’s starting to look like Sussan Ley would be even worse.
TRANSCRIPT
MICHELLE GRATTAN: Energy and climate change will again be issues this parliamentary term. Not only does Australia have to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target, but the Government soon has to set a target for 2035 and decide the degree of ambition that it will put forward. Energy prices are a pinch for many families meanwhile. And in the regions, there’s been a revolt against some renewable projects. On the Coalition side, the 2050 net zero target is up for review in both the Nationals’ and the Liberals’ party rooms. Barnaby Joyce, meanwhile, the prominent and outspoken National, is introducing a Private Members’ Bill to repeal Australia’s commitment to net zero.
Chris Bowen, let’s start with the big picture. How is the clean energy transition going in your view?
CHRIS BOWEN: I think it’s going well. We can always do more and there’s always more effort needed and the job is far from done. But when you consider what we’ve achieved over the first three years, I would say pleased but not yet satisfied. We are by and large on track for our 43% emissions reduction.
Just in the last couple of days, some excellent figures about the amount of new renewable electricity connected to the grid. So all this is a very significant turnaround from 2022. But I’m far from ‘mission accomplished’. There’s still a lot more to do. This is the biggest economic transition our country has undertaken and you don’t do three years’ work and put your feet up. This is a constant effort and that’s an effort on which I’m entirely focused.
GRATTAN: So what are the two or three major problems in your mind at the moment?
BOWEN: Well, I would put it in terms of challenges perhaps rather than problems. When you think about the challenges on our energy transition, it’s just we are in a global environment with plenty of investment headwinds. So every country is dealing with that. That’s changed a little bit over the recent years. A few years ago, we were all competing for the same capital and, of course, we still are to a certain degree, but the investment decisions have become more challenged around the world and we’re included in that.
There are social license issues - community support - I don’t think that’s as black and white as you might think if you read certain newspapers in Australia. There’s a lot of support for the transition in the regions. And I spend a lot of time travelling around the country talking to a lot of people from all walks of life and it’s not the case that people in the city support action on climate change, and people in the regions don’t. It’s much more nuanced and balanced than that. Of course there’s issues and challenges in the regions which we’ve done a lot of work on and will continue to, but people in the regions, in my experience, a big group of them understand, one, the opportunities from action and, two, the absolute necessity of action and the fact that rural Australia is the area in many ways most at risk of the impacts of climate change.
GRATTAN: Just before we get into that, can we just close off on these targets? You are confident that Australia can reach the 2030 targets of 43% emissions reduction and 82% renewable energy?
BOWEN: I am, and again, in saying that I’m not saying ‘feet on the table, nothing more to do’, but I am saying we’ve made good progress and I’m confident.
So, on the 82% target, just figures out in the last 24 hours, the financial year to July that’s just ended, double the financial year before for renewable energy connected. Not investment decisions made or plans. Actually up and running and connected, and the 43% emissions reduction target, of course, it’s a challenge, it’s a lift for the country, but the last projections I put out show 42%, so getting pretty close to 43% with more to do.
GRATTAN: So, going back to these regional areas, there have been various wind farm projects that have fallen over recently, including a big one in Victoria. How worrying is this, and how vital are those projects to get to the targets?
BOWEN: So, you’re talking about onshore wind there, yeah?
GRATTAN: Well, onshore and offshore.
BOWEN: I’m happy to deal with both. Well, maybe offshore first, because it’s most prominent. I mean, offshore is a big job, you know, and we were not and are not projecting any electricity to come out of offshore wind before 2030. You know, these are big, long-term projects, and some will work and some won’t, et cetera, and there are global headwinds. So, that’s not to say it’s not important or that we shouldn’t keep going, but there will be challenges. Now, there’s been some accurate reporting of projects and owners around the world which are withdrawing.
There’s been some, I think, slightly inaccurate reporting, like, for example, projects that weren’t in the areas that we’ve designated not proceeding. Well, of course they’re not proceeding, because we haven’t chosen those areas for offshore wind. So, that’s not a project falling over, that’s a project not proceeding because we didn’t want that area to be developed, particularly in Western Australia, there was a story last week.
So, there are some challenges there, but, again, there’s also lots of projects proceeding and continuing their work, particularly around the Gippsland, that’s our sort of strongest zone, but also one in Portland, a few in Western Australia, and ongoing discussions with the Illawarra and Hunter proponents. So, you know, more work to do, but I think, again, just look at it in context. This is not something we were planning or are planning for 2026 or any time soon. This is a big new change for Australia.
On onshore wind, yeah, look, again, there’s plenty of projects proceeding. There’s been some, not, but, again, I think I’d point to those very strong investment figures, connection figures. By and large, our Capacity Investment Scheme remains very much oversubscribed. There’s more projects bidding in than we’re calling for. That shows strength of demand for more renewable energy, and I’m pretty happy with that.
GRATTAN: Roughly when will you be announcing the next target, the 2035 target?
BOWEN: So, the UNFCCC, the United Nations body responsible for these things, has asked parties, is what we call them in the process. That’s a fancy word for countries. To do it by September, and that’s what we’re working towards.
And, you know, that’s pretty appropriate. A smallish handful of countries have released their targets so far, the vast majority have not, and we will announce our target in very good time.
GRATTAN: Well, that’s pretty soon.
BOWEN: Yeah, and look, I’d just say this, Michelle. I’m not sure if I’m pre-empting a question that you might want to ask me, but I think Australia’s pretty much best practice for setting targets. Together with- I put us together with the United Kingdom and Malta, three very different economies, but we’re the ones with an independent climate change authority. We call it an authority, they call it a committee in the United Kingdom, which goes through the evidence, passes the options and makes a recommendation to government.
Now, we don’t have to accept that recommendation, but it will be made public, so if we haven’t accepted it at all, it will be clear. And their advice, which I have not yet received, will be very comprehensive and go through all the rationale for their recommendation to me. And it’s very important to come to these things wide-eyed in terms of the options and the challenges.
You know, it’s very easy to, you know, pat yourself on the back, make a hero of yourself and say, I’m going to deliver 100% by X. Well, OK, I say to people who want a higher target than maybe what’s being floated or what we might end up with: Well, you show me how you’d do it, because I’ve got to actually do it. You know, I’ve actually got to deliver and explain it.
It’s all very well saying you want 80% or 90% emissions reduction. Well, you show me what levers you would pull to get that done, because I know what levers we’re going to pull, and we’ll have an ambitious target, but we’re not here to pretend it’s going to be easy.
GRATTAN: Well, the more realistic indications have been something between 65% and 75%. Business groups are a bit worried that the higher end of this would be somewhat punitive for them, for productivity. Are you able to give any indication of whether you’re leaning to the lower or higher end of that range?
BOWEN: No, I’m not, because I haven’t received the Climate Change Authority advice yet. There’s going to be- look, I’m already receiving plenty of free advice, including some business groups this morning, or businesses themselves calling for 75%, but I’m not going to sort of start engaging in that commentary. There’s different views out there, that’s true.
There are some who are aiming lower and some who are aiming higher. Ultimately, when I do release the government’s target, after I’ve taken it through the Cabinet, you’ll see the rigour that we’ve applied to setting it and it’ll be very strong.
GRATTAN: Now, the Opposition, rather spectacularly, of course, is reviewing its 2050 commitment, net zero commitment, and that’s provided you with a bit of grist as Parliament starts. But why is that target so critical to maintain?
BOWEN: It’s the basic bare minimum of action. It’s what the IPCC has recommended as what is absolutely necessary to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change. Let me be clear, not avoid climate change. We’re living in climate change now. But to avoid the worst catastrophic impacts of it. So to be debating net zero 2050 in Australia this year is like debating whether the sun should come up. It’s the most basic framework. It’s nowhere near enough, Michelle.
GRATTAN: It’s also 25 years ahead.
BOWEN: Which is not long. We are now closer to 2050 than we are to the year 2000, which I remember quite well and you do too. More than half our listeners will remember the year 2000. It wasn’t that long ago. We’re now closer to 2050 than we are to the year 2000. It’s not that long, really, in the greater scheme of things.
GRATTAN: Do you think 2050, the 2050 target, is gaining support with the public or losing support given high energy prices and various other controversies in this area?
BOWEN: I think it’s pretty static. I think it’s got strong support and it’s retaining that. I mean, the election result, you know, shows that. That we were told to get on with it, keep going, basically. Peter Dutton said he wanted a referendum on energy and climate. OK, fine. I mean, there were two pretty competing plans out there. To be fair, I’ll just say this. At least Peter Dutton had net zero as a policy objective. I mean, Susan Ley’s indicating maybe she won’t. I mean, I used to say Peter Dutton would be a worse Prime Minister for climate than Tony Abbott and I was correct at the time, but now it’s starting to look like Susan Ley would be even worse. But, you know, maybe they’ll have the process and stick to net zero. I certainly hope they do because that would be in their national interest.
GRATTAN: Now, Australia is bidding to host the next COP and that’s quite close, just next year. When will this be decided?
BOWEN: So, one of the things about the process to decide COPs, I’ve learnt is it’s quite opaque and there’s no particular timeline and no particular rules to the ballot. I will say, I’ve said before, we’ve got very strong support. So it’s not a matter of going out and getting more votes. You know, we’ve got-
GRATTAN: And it’s a two-horse race, right?
BOWEN: It’s a two-horse race.
GRATTAN: With Türkiye.
BOWEN: Correct, Türkiye. And the way it works is it’s actually a constituency of our group in the United Nations, Western Europe and Others it’s called. It’s 28 countries and, you know, we’ve got effectively 23 votes. 23 countries have said to me, yes, we’re supporting you.
And no country has said we’re not supporting you apart from Türkiye. There’s only 23 who have shook my hand and, you know, looked me in the eye and said they’re voting for us. But there’s no agreed time or process for a ballot.
It’s meant to work on a consensus, sort of an old world, sort of gentlemanly sort of approach to say whoever loses will withdraw. That’s not the way it’s panning out. I’ve had multiple meetings with my Turkish counterpart, including in Ankara, to try and, you know, find a way which, you know, may be a sort of win-win solution. We haven’t been able to find that yet. Again, I’ve seen some commentary saying - and you know, and fair enough, I understand why people might say this - is Australia should work harder to go and get the votes. With great respect, that’s not the challenge here. We’ve got the votes. We could have all the votes in the world. If Türkiye is not going to withdraw, that’s still a challenge.
GRATTAN: So this is an enormous event, though, and it’s planned for Adelaide. It must be frustrating and difficult that we can’t get a resolution.
BOWEN: A little, yes, but, you know, we’ve got to work with what we’ve got. Having said that, the last COP, the one last year in Azerbaijan, I accept Azerbaijan’s a very different country to Australia, but they found out a year in advance as well. And logistically, physically, they put on a very good COP. That can be done. And I know the Premier of South Australia is very, very enthusiastic in support of hosting the COP, and they’ll do a good job in partnership with us if we win the bid.
GRATTAN: Well, what’s your best guess about when we’ll get the decision?
BOWEN: Well, obviously, the sooner the better from our point of view, but there’s a few key meetings coming up in the next few months, and obviously this year’s COP in Belem in Brazil will be a key moment as well.
GRATTAN: And that’s what, November?
BOWEN: Yeah, that sort of timeframe.
GRATTAN: Will the Prime Minister be going to that?
BOWEN: Oh, well, I don’t announce the Prime Minister’s travel plans. I’ll leave that to him.
GRATTAN: But you’d expect that-
BOWEN: Well, again, I’m not speculating.
GRATTAN: Given the situation, he’d be needed there, right?
BOWEN: I’ve been around long enough to know, Michelle, it’s not my place to announce where the Prime Minister’s going and when.
GRATTAN: You’re currently doing a review into the East Coast gas market. What’s the timetable there? And what are you trying to get out of that? And is there any chance of a gas reservation scheme? Of course, you criticised the opposition’s proposal. So is such a scheme even constitutional? Or do you think that the existing powers that the government has to intervene are adequate?
BOWEN: So I was critical of the opposition’s plan because it hadn’t been thought through. There was very little to no consultation with anyone. And, you know, there were holes all through it, which we identified very quickly.
And we’re doing the opposite. We’ve got a six-month review with consultation, submissions invited.
Minister Madeline King and I will meet with key players, talk through the options. You know, the opposite of what the Coalition did. Because we’ve got an issue here. We’ve got plenty of gas as a country, but not enough gas for domestic purposes. To your question about would a reservation be constitutional, yes, if it’s prospective. So, I mean, some people say, I mean, just cancel the contracts. With the deepest of respect, they haven’t read the Constitution or the High Court’s interpretation of the Constitution because it’s not constitutional for the Commonwealth to do. But certainly the Commonwealth has options open to it going forward. There’s a review on. I know you’ve asked me to sort of pre-empt it. I’m not going to. There’s a review.
But clearly Minister King and I have called this review because we think there’s an issue. Also, there’s three- you’ve asked me whether the existing mechanisms are enough. Well, there’s three existing mechanisms in effect. And they’re all up for some sort of renewal in this little period. So what Madeleine and I thought is, well, let’s not - I have the levers on some and she has the levers on others - let’s not do three separate reviews. Let’s do a proper review into how they’re working, not working, what more we could do and how we could do it better. And that’s what we’re doing.
GRATTAN: Now, the economic reform roundtable under the Treasurer is coming up next month. How involved are you in that Are you putting forward any proposals? And in the tax debate in that roundtable, there’s a lot of pressure to increase the petroleum resource rent tax. Do you think that those who are advocating that have a valid case?
BOWEN: So in terms of the roundtable, obviously every cabinet minister’s involved in some form because it all goes to cabinet. I might be breaking news here, I’m not sure, I’ll be holding my own roundtable to feed into the Treasurer’s. I’ll be holding an energy and climate roundtable with key stakeholders in my portfolio in the lead up.
GRATTAN: When’s that?
BOWEN: I think August 8th, in Western Sydney. So I’ll be getting key players together to say, look, the Treasurer’s got his roundtable coming up, obviously not everyone can be at that. It’s in the cabinet room, it’s a smallish room. But that doesn’t mean that your ideas aren’t valuable. Let’s have our own roundtable and feed ideas in. So we’ll be issuing a report to the Treasurer’s roundtable. I’m not the only minister doing that. There’ll be a number of ministers doing that in their own portfolios, but that’s what I’m doing.
GRATTAN: Are you asking the Minerals Council, because they haven’t got an invite to the big one yet?
BOWEN: Well, I’ve sent invite letters out. But mine is more focused on the user end, not getting the minerals out of the ground. That’s Madeleine King’s portfolio. Mine is how we use the energy. So I’ve got a different group of stakeholders, with all due respect to the people at the Minerals Council. Mine’s much more the energy users, the different energy groups that produce energy, not getting it out of the ground, but actually the actual retail side of it.
I’ll be holding two roundtables, one on electricity and one on climate adaptation, which is going to be an increasing focus of this government and future governments, because, tragically, the world has left it too late to avoid the impacts of climate change, as I said before. We can hopefully avoid the worst catastrophic impacts of more than 1.5 and 2 to 3 degrees, but they’re going to have to adapt, and I’ll be holding a roundtable about the adaptation productivity nexus.
GRATTAN: Now, there’s a lot of talk at the moment about deregulation, both in the context of the roundtable, the Treasurer’s roundtable, and more generally. Do you think, in terms of energy projects, renewable energy, that there needs to be a loosening of regulation? Is there really too much red tape, green tape involved? And, of course, this raises the question of consultation, which is very important, but are the consultations holding up projects too much?
BOWEN: I don’t see it in terms of a loosening or a tightening. I do see it in terms of more efficient, faster and better. So I’m very supportive of the work of Murray Watt to try and get EPBC reforms through, for a whole range of reasons, the nature crisis being one of them, but also because it would be nice to get faster consideration of renewable energy projects. That’s not faster yes, necessarily, it’s faster yes or faster no. Either way, it’s better, because, you know, there is no point- it’s terrible for everyone, the communities involved, the proponents, the opponents, to have a two-, three-, five-year process which ends up in a no or a yes. If you can get a 12-month process or less, then everyone’s better off.
Now, we are making some progress there. We’ve got a- people wouldn’t really probably know about this very much, but, you know, we’ve got a priority list of renewable energy projects of more than 50.
We’ve agreed with the states. That’s working through devoted resources, more than $100 million at the Commonwealth level, to get faster consideration of those. Minister Watt has signed off some renewable energy projects very fast, very, very fast.
That’s a good thing. Minister Plibersek was doing the same.
And, of course, we’re, in some senses, managing strength, because there are so many renewable energy applications, you know, multiples more than there were 10 years ago. And, you know, probably, maybe it took our department, the environmental side, a little bit to catch up with that, to get more resources into it, because, you know, the growth is so strong. But I think we’re doing that now.
GRATTAN: Just to finish on AI, this is going to take a huge amount of energy as it spreads through the economy. Are you prepared for this? Have we made enough plans for that?
BOWEN: I think so, but I also think it’s an ongoing conversation, You know, so it is on our mind more broadly. It’ll come up in the roundtable. You know, it’ll come up- More than come up, It’ll be a key item.
It’s a challenge and an opportunity. AI is very energy hungry, You know, those data centres eat a lot of energy, but they’re going to happen.
And, you know, there’s a myth that people aren’t investing in Australia with data. That’s nonsense. The Prime Minister just announced a big one. There’s many more announcements that have been made. But there’s also opportunities, both the data centres themselves and the AI created to help us. So I think it’ll be a key part of the energy discussion at the Productivity Roundtable.
GRATTAN: Chris Bowen, thank you very much for taking time on a busy parliamentary day to talk with us today.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
