Democrats may win Senate, but hopes dim for anti-Trump landslide
WASHINGTON _ Democrats have a better-than-even chance of winning control of the U.S. Senate in November, thanks in part to a backlash against Donald Trump, but it won't be as easy as they hoped.
Most Republican Senate candidates are running solid, well-financed campaigns focusing on local issues in their states and distancing themselves from Trump's many missteps. Incumbents fended off challenges from the far right. And major Republican donors like the billionaire Koch brothers have been focusing their money on saving Senate seats after taking a pass on supporting Trump.
But there's another force at play, as polls suggest a troubling trend for Democrats: In state after state, Republican senators are running ahead of Trump, who for his part has recovered a bit from the dismal polls he scored after the conventions. That means that some people who might be inclined to support Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton also are prepared to back a Republican for Senate, a phenomenon known as ticket-splitting.
"I think that we're going to see in some respects the return of the split-ticket voter," said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor at the Cook Political Report. One main reason: Clinton isn't much more popular than Trump, dragged down by her own political baggage.
Trump has closed the polling gap with Clinton a bit in recent days, with a new CNN/ORC poll showing the real-estate mogul with a two-point lead.
_ Bloomberg News
