Polish President Andrzej Duda won the first-round vote in his bid for re-election, but he failed to clinch an outright victory and will face Warsaw's mayor in a July 12 runoff, an exit poll showed.
Duda won 41.8% of Sunday's ballot, followed by 30.4% for opposition candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, according to an exit poll for Poland's three main television broadcasters published after voting ended.
The runoff between the two 48-year-olds will determine the fate of a five-year makeover by the nationalist ruling Law & Justice party. While Duda has endorsed Law & Justice's push to seize more power over all branches of government and the courts, Trzaskowski could secure a mandate to cut that short and rebuild ties with European Union partners.
The country of 38 million was for most of the past three decades hailed as a model of transformation from communism to a thriving democracy. But since 2015, Duda and his Law & Justice allies have clashed with the EU over everything from the independence of courts and control of the media to LGBT rights.
Tight race
The risk for an EU grappling with the pandemic and its economic fallout is that Poland may slide the way of Hungary, which has been transformed by Premier Viktor Orban into an "illiberal democracy."
If Duda loses the head-to-head face-off, it would allow Trzaskowski to block legislation and scupper Law & Justice's platform. The party lacks enough seats in parliament to override presidential vetoes.
Opinion polls taken before the first round put the outcome of a Duda-Trzaskowski runoff as too close to call, with the Warsaw Mayor gaining the votes won by most other opposition contenders and Duda those of an anti-EU nationalist candidate.
"The run-off is absolutely open," said Andrzej Rychard, a sociology professor at the Polish Academy of Sciences.
Duda was cruising for an apparent easy first-round win as recently as in early May, but his campaign took a hit as measures to tackle the coronavirus put Poland on the path toward its first economic recession in three decades.
The president turned to familiar Law & Justice tactics when his popularity dipped. He picked on gay people, vowed to defend traditional family values and cozied up to Donald Trump during a visit to the White House four days before the vote.
'Enough!'
By contrast Trzaskowski _ a political scientist who took the capital city's top job in 2018 _ supports same-sex partnerships. The son of a famous jazz pianist who speaks five languages, he he tapped into discontent with a rally cry of "We've had enough!"
Still, Duda, who has strong support among poorer and less educated Poles, has the backing of state-run television _ the main source of news for many. It hailed his meeting with Trump, where no major deals were signed, as a turning point in Polish history.
The main nightly news program also repeatedly questioned if Trzaskowski is a "true" Catholic and ran stories about whether his children went to first communion. It also stirred doubt over his ability to fight for Polish interests, because he once won a scholarship from a foundation linked to philanthropist George Soros, a figure often demonized by far-right groups.
"Trzaskowski has had a successful campaign ahead of Sunday's vote but he needs to convey a concrete message to a wider group of voters before the second round," Rychard said.
