David Cameron at prime minister's
question time yesterday.
Photograph: PA
The truism that politics is about perception has defined David Cameron's approach since becoming Tory leader last year. Cameron knows that most people don't bother reading long analyses of policy in the broadsheet press (between them, quality papers sell around 3m copies a day). Many people make up their minds about politicians based on much vaguer forms of communication: headlines, soundbites, photo opportunities on the TV news.
People voted for Tony Blair in 1997 because they liked him and trusted him, and because he seemed competent and credible, not because of New Labour's five policy pledges, Cameron reasons. And he wants to pull off the same trick himself.
That's why today's news that a Tory tax commission has recommended £21bn of tax cuts is so important.
Never mind that the body's proposals are not binding on the Tory leader. Never mind the argument that Cameron and George Osborne, his shadow chancellor, want to define themselves against old-school rightwingers such as Lord Forsyth, the report's author.
The impression the voters get when they scan the headlines or turn on the news is that the Tories are still about tax cuts. And the conventional political wisdom seems to be that nine years of Labour government - with its emphasis on public services and maintenance of a buoyant economy - have left them mistrustful of tax cuts.
So far, Cameron has managed to transform his party's position through gestures alone, from his visit to the Arctic circle which signified his green credentials to the positive words about gay marriage in his conference speech. This approach has paid off and the public have taken to him; a Guardian/ICM poll last month found him leading Gordon Brown 35% to 32% on the question of who would make the best prime minister, while the ratings for the two parties gave the Tories a similar lead.
But over the next few months the policy commissions he set up to re-examine every part of Conservative policy - run by such familiar names as Iain Duncan Smith, John Redwood, John Gummer and Peter Lilley - will start to report back.
It is true that the public will not study every line of these reports. And, like today's tax commission, their recommendations will not be binding. They may, too, send an important "dog whistle" message to the party's neglected base.
But if they create the perception that the party has stood still while only Cameron has changed, they may undo much of the Tory leader's hard work.
