Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has suddenly emerged as a leading "post-Abe" candidate -- those most likely to succeed Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shinzo Abe -- with his rise occurring in the wake of his announcement of Reiwa as the new era name.
Suga is expected to visit the United States on May 9-12 and meet with U.S. Vice President Mike Pence. The visit is an unusual move for a chief cabinet secretary, who is responsible for crisis management. Some LDP members have said that his visit to the country may be the opening gambit in a strategy aimed at winning the next LDP presidential election.
During an event for users of the video-sharing website Nico Nico Douga on Sunday, Suga responded with a smile when the emcee asked him about announcing the new era name, saying, "I didn't expect that I would attract this much attention."
The image of Suga lifting up a picture frame to reveal the characters for Reiwa written in black ink attracted widespread attention and greatly enhanced Suga's visibility.
LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai and former Secretary General Makoto Koga have mentioned Suga as a candidate to take over as LDP leader after Abe. Koga is honorary chairman of the party faction led by Fumio Kishida, chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council.
Besides his name recognition, Suga's strong point is the series of achievements he has made on the domestic policy front. He was the main force behind introducing the new system to expand the number of foreign workers, reducing cell phone communication fees, and introducing the international tourist tax -- policies known as "Suga affairs" among government officials.
Suga's weakness is that he does not belong to a faction and thus lacks a firm support base inside the LDP. However, more than 30 unaffiliated LDP lawmakers in the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors are believed to support Suga. They include members of the Ganesha no Kai group comprising about a dozen lower house lawmakers.
"If a Suga faction is formed, it can attract at least 50 lawmakers who are [currently] unattached to any faction," said a Ganesha no Kai lower house member.
Suga has repeatedly denied that he wants to become prime minister.
However, if Suga also notches major achievements in the diplomatic ring -- where he has yet to involve himself -- he could become a major threat to former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, Kishida and other lawmakers who are sizing up their chances in the next LDP presidential election.
Suga is now seeking talks with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other U.S. government officials during his visit to the United States. He intends to closely cooperate with Washington toward solving the issues of the abduction of Japanese nationals by North Korea and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
In May 2005, Abe visited the United States as LDP acting secretary general and met with Vice President Dick Cheney and many other senior U.S. officials. The U.S. government is believed to have viewed him as a major contender for prime minister and offered him a cordial reception, with U.S. President George W. Bush speaking to Abe when they happened to meet in the White House.
"Who Mr. Suga talks to and whether he is invited to the White House will act as a litmus test for Suga's future," said an LDP senior official.
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