The clutch of four Sunday newspaper polls published over the weekend contained little comfort for Michael Howard with even the Sunday Times/YouGov poll showing a slight increase in Labour's lead over the first week of campaigning.
The new ICM published this morning in the Mirror which gives Labour a five-point lead and the YouGov survey in the Telegraph with the parties neck and neck confirms that whichever pollster you pick there has been precious little movement in the first week of the campaign, notwithstanding the temporary truce for the papal funeral and the royal wedding.
The main exception to this pattern has been the Mori polls based only on the voting intentions of those saying they are "10 out of 10" certain to vote. The Observer/Mori showing a seven-point Labour lead may have brightened Tony Blair's day but it should be greeted with a degree of scepticism given that a similar Mori poll for the FT recorded a five-point Tory lead only a week ago.
Nobody expects earthquakes after only a few days of campaigning but each Monday morning that passes without signs of a significant Tory advance will put Mr Howard under greater pressure. Expect to hear a lot more on immigration and law and order from the Conservatives between now and polling day.
Alan Travis, home affairs editor
