As I’m sure you’ve heard by now, former UFC champion Conor McGregor will be making his return at UFC 246 opposite fellow fan favorite Donald Cerrone.
The event will take place on Jan. 18 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and the headlining matchup at hand will be contested at welterweight.
McGregor (21-4 MMA, 9-2 UFC) is coming off of a failed attempt to regain his lightweight crown against current champ Khabib Nurmagomedov back at UFC 229, and has spent the bulk of 2019 with battles outside of the cage that range from formal assault charges to sexual assault allegations.
Whereas Cerrone (36-13 MMA, 23-10 UFC), who – despite starting the year off strong with wins over Alexander Hernandez and Al Iaquinta – is currently coming off of a pair of stoppage losses to two of the toughest hombres at 155 pounds in Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje.
Both men will have ample opportunity to take steps in the right direction come January, but I thought it wouldn’t hurt to lay out some of the things that I’ll be looking for from an analytical/technical perspective, using a fun point/counterpoint format to help primer the McGregor-Cerrone collision ahead.
Point: Lengthy layoff for McGregor
With most metrics traditionally indicating long layoffs as a negative, it’s hard to ignore the fact that it will be a solid 15 months since we’ve last seen McGregor compete in a cage come January.
If you count his special attraction with Floyd Mayweather inside of the boxing ring, then McGregor’s second-longest layoff comes out to 14 months; but if we’re just sticking to MMA, then his longest layoff technically jumps to a grand total of 23 months – – both of which roads resulted in a loss upon return.
Counterpoint: Prior comebacks and adjustments
Although McGregor’s most recent comeback bore little fruit, he has shown the ability to adapt and overcome adversity at earlier points of his UFC tenure.
After tearing his ACL mid-fight against Max Holloway back in 2013, McGregor took recovery and reinvigoration to a new level, making a successful return the next year (after an 11-month grand total). And in 2016, McGregor, despite suffering a crushing defeat to Nate Diaz at UFC 196 and nearly severing ties with both his head coach and the UFC that same summer, managed to turn things around in just 5 months time – showing off an improved arsenal and ability to manage pace.
Next page: “Cowboy” vs. southpaws, McGregor vs. kickers
Point: Struggle with southpaws for ‘Cowboy’
For those who’ve been following Cerrone’s career, it’s no secret that the skilled kickboxer has tended to struggle against southpaws stylistically, holding a record of 4-9 against UFC-level lefties (which could easily stand at 3-10 when looking at his last fight with Benson Henderson).
Cerrone has also been TKO’d in 4 of his last 6 losses (which only dates back to 2017), something that could portend trouble for him should he decide to stay on the feet with a southpaw who – despite being known for his counters – is very competent when it comes to using and playing with pressure.
Counterpoint: McGregor against kickers?
When looking over McGregor’s resume, his sample size is deceptively devoid of Thai-style kickboxers. It also doesn’t help that his fights with high-level strikers and competent kickers have mostly tended to end early and in his favor.
Still, when looking over the numbers, one statistic stood out to me: leg kicks.
Cerrone, who holds the UFC record for most leg kicks landed inside of the octagon, doesn’t tend to dwindle in that department when posed with an opposite-stance opponent. Whereas McGregor, though winning the majority of the exchanges he takes part in, typically gives a lot away in both the distance and leg kick categories.
In fact, Holloway, Dustin Poirier and Dennis Siver all scored 90-plus percent of their offense at distance, while legs kicks led in both in the lands and percentage fields when each fighter faced the famed Irishman. I also noticed that Conor, when he did choose to counter kicks, often did so with trip takedowns – something that he may think twice about given Cerrone’s dangerous guard game.
Next page: Welterweight advantages and disadvantages
Point: Welterweight advantages
Though the announcement of this matchup at welterweight seems to polarize the public and pundits alike, I suspect this came as the result of a shortened camp/the somewhat rushed nature of this booking.
McGregor has also seemed very optimistic about operating at this weight in the past, but I can’t help but think that this weight class favors Cerrone.
Not only does “Cowboy” have more experience at 170 pounds (6-4 in this division opposed to McGregor’s 1-1), but one could argue that the 13-year vet is more durable when not having to make the cut to 155 pounds – especially in this more advanced stage of his career.
Counterpoint: Welterweight disadvantages
When it comes to disadvantages related to these two fighting at welterweight, I can’t help but wonder about the cardio of McGregor.
Although the former champ-champ demonstrated an improved ability to manage his pace at the previously-mentioned UFC 202, his explosive nature and athletic make up traditionally makes him less dangerous (at least from a one-shot knockout perspective) as the fight wears on into the later rounds.
It’s hard to see this fight not being five rounds, so pace management will be something to watch for if this scrap doesn’t end early.
Next page: Early odds and leans
Early odds and leans
At the time of this writing, the oddsmakers and public seem to be favoring the Irishman, listing McGregor -260 and Cerrone +200.
I don’t disagree – nor am I surprised – to see McGregor installed and inflated to an over 2-1 favorite. That said, I suspect that even more money will be pouring in the popular former champ come fight time, making this matchup a tempting/dangerous match to make a play on.
Technical analysis aside, McGregor is by far this battle’s biggest intangible, as we really don’t know where he is or what we’re getting. And though I’ll be reserving my official pick for my fight week breakdown, I do think that the stylistic dynamics of this matchup are a bit more volatile than the betting odds indicate.
Regardless of what your take is on this fight, be sure to keep it locked to MMA Junkie for future updates, announcements and analysis regarding UFC 246.
