The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) may fare better than the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) this time, if the performance of the AIADMK-led alliance, which includes the two parties, during the 2016 Assembly election and the 2019 Lok Sabha poll is any indication.
The AIADMK has allotted 23 seats to the PMK and 20 to the BJP.
Five years ago, when the PMK, the BJP and the AIADMK contested separately, the sum of votes polled by the three parties in the seats allotted to the PMK exceeded the vote share of 50% in 13 constituencies. Of the remaining 10 constituencies, four constituencies saw the alliance’s vote share varying from 45% to 49%; five saw 40% to 45% and only one, Neyveli, under 40%.
But in 2019, when all three came together to fight the Lok Sabha election, the situation was completely different, as the alliance had only one Assembly segment — Jayamkondan — where its vote share exceeded 50%. A combination of factors, including the “anti-Modi” mood, worked against the coalition. As far as the AIADMK-led front is concerned, its performance in the Assembly election is bound to be much better than what it was during the Lok Sabha poll.
Jayamkondan is one of the six segments that form the Chidambaram Parliamentary constituency. In 2019, in this segment, Thol. Thirumavalavan, the founder of the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), polled about 25,000 votes less than what the AIADMK’s nominee, P. Chandrasekar, got. The VCK leader made it to Parliament by a margin of about 3,200 votes.
Shifting focus
The AIADMK-led combine scored a vote share of 45% to 49% in two Assembly constituencies (Dharmapuri and Pennagaram), both falling under the Dharmapuri Lok Sabha constituency.
PMK president G.K. Mani perhaps decided to shift to Pennagaram from his earlier constituency of Mettur as the alliance had performed better there than in Mettur, where the vote share was only about 40% against 45.27% in Pennagaram.
Neyveli and Sholinghur were the two other seats where vote share was in the 40%-45% range. In five constituencies, it was in the bracket of 35%-40%; in eight 30%-35%; in two 25%-30% and in two less than 20%.
As for the BJP, in 2016, the combined vote share of the candidates of the AIADMK, the BJP and the PMK crossed 50% in four constituencies — Ramanathapuram, Coimbatore (South), Aravakurichi and Nagercoil; 45%-50% in 10 constituencies, including Tirunelveli, Colachel and Virudhunagar; 40%-45% in three constituencies, including Karaikudi, and less than 40% in three segments.
BJP in Thalli
Three years later, even though the alliance’s vote share did not go beyond the 50%-mark even in one of the 20 seats allotted to the national party this time, it doubled its vote share in Thalli, from what it was in 2016. The NDA’s score card in Thalli, which comes under the Krishnagiri Lok Sabha seat, went up from 20.9% to 44.47%.
In Nagercoil (in the Kanniyakumari Parliamentary seat), the figure was at 44%. In four constituencies, the NDA’s score was in the bracket of 35%-40%; seven- 30%-35%; four- 25%-30% and three- 20%-25%
Even though the alliance’s vote share did not exceed 35% in Coimbatore (South) and Tirunelveli Assembly segments, the BJP hopes to win there this time by fielding well-known personalities. In 2016, Vanathi Srinivasan, now the party’s national chief of women’s wing (mahila morcha), contested from Coimbatore South and polled about 21.57% votes.
Nainar Nagenthiran, who lost in Tirunelveli by a margin of around 600 votes five years ago as a nominee of the AIADMK, has filed his nomination paper as the BJP candidate this time.
