Scott Morrison has urged authorities to keep schools open for now as he revealed shock new predictions that hospitals and GPs could soon be overwhelmed by 300,000 people a day seeking treatment or testing for the coronavirus.
The Prime Minister Scott Morrison revealed the grim forecast at a press conference on Sunday announcing the toughest precautions to date would be enacted from midnight, including mandatory 14-day self-isolation rules for international travellers.
Travellers who fail to follow the rules could be detained and face penalties of up to $20,000.
But international flight crew will be exempt from the rules and simply asked to practise social distancing when in Australia.
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As the national toll of coronavirus cases hit nearly 300 patients, a 77-year-old Queensland woman became the fourth person to die in Australia from the virus.
The woman from Noosaville on the Sunshine Coast died in Sydney after flying from Brisbane on Friday.
A Queensland Health spokesman said developed symptoms on the plane, was taken to hospital and died the same day.
NSW Health announced on Sunday night a fifth fatality – a 90-year-old resident of the Dorothy Henderson Lodge aged-care home, where two other residents have died.
The woman died on Saturday.
International travellers who flout the new rules could be forcibly detained or face fines of $20,000 if they fail to comply with new orders to self-isolate in Victoria.
“I want to be clear about those travel restrictions I’ve just announced,” Mr Morrison said.
“All people coming to Australia will be required, I stress, to self-isolate for 14 days.
“This is very important.
“What we’ve seen in recent weeks is more countries having issues with the virus and that means the source of some of those transmissions are coming from more and more countries.”
Chief Medical Officer with an important update on testing and social distancing. For more information visit https://t.co/sHqKFpeFdh pic.twitter.com/JZE0KcaWsA
— Australian Government Department of Health (@healthgovau) March 14, 2020
Pleading with Australians to help health authorities manage the pandemic by ‘flattening the curve’ or peak of cases in coming weeks Mr Morrison revealed government modelling predicts hospitals and intensive care units could struggle to cope if nothing is done.
The modelling, obtained by The New Daily, is based on two infection rate scenarios that each coronavirus patient will spread the virus to 1.72 others or a higher infection rate of 2.48.
Assuming that every person infected will spread the virus to 2.48 people demand for hospital care, treatment or tests could spike to 300,000 people a day needing care if tougher measures are not taken.
But if quarantine measures for those infected is followed and self-isolation is practised that peak can be brought down to 100,000 coronavirus presentations a day in the health system.
Mr Morrison warned it could lead to rationing and new rules for intensive care unit beds and emergency department services.
“If you don’t take measures that seek to contain the spread, and mitigate the spread, then you have scenarios that look like this,” he said.
“You have scenarios where you get a very severe effect on the spread of the virus.
“You may move through it much more quickly, but what happens is the virus reaches more people, and that puts maximum pressure on your health system.”
The Prime Minister’s office was not prepared to provide estimates or modelling on how many people it expects will be infected, amid predictions it could involve millions of Australians.
The PM warned that the disruption to Australians daily life could last up to six months or even longer as the world confronts a once-in-a-generation virus threat.
But he said there were good reasons to keep schools open for now.
“People are naturally anxious about the issues of schools,” Mr Morrison said.
“As the British chief medical officer observed over the last couple of days, the issue of wide-scale closure of schools, it may be anti-intuitive but the advice is this could be a very negative thing in terms of impacting on how these curves operate.
“The two reasons: When you take children out of school and put them back in the broader community, the ability for them to potentially engage with others increases that risk.
“Also issues of herd immunity which relate to children.
“The other is the disruption impact that could have and put at great risk the availability of critical workers such as nurses, doctors and others who are essential in the community because they would have to remain home and look after their children.
“That could make the situation worse, not better.”
The PM said the issue would be considered further on Friday, along with arrangements for Anzac Day.
“We will be putting out specific guidelines about those [Anzac Day] gatherings, and particularly the participation of more vulnerable Australians and our elderly veteran community,” Mr Morrison said.
New restrictions around the visiting of aged-care facilities are also likely to apply shortly.
