The needle for dissolution of the House of Representatives now points toward early October.
According to sources, if Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is able to secure re-election as the LDP's leader in September, he might pull the trigger in the first half of October to dissolve the lower house and hold a snap election. But the optimal time to do so will depend largely on the state of novel coronavirus infections.
The LDP presidential election is expected to officially kick off on Sept. 17, with voting and ballot counting on Sept. 29.
This schedule leaves the prime minister some wiggle room to dissolve the lower house before the LDP election, if the state of infections improves significantly and the state of emergency currently in effect in 13 prefectures expires as scheduled on Sept 12.
However, the latest wave of infections shows no signs of ebbing and Cabinet approval ratings are at an all-time low. The Yokohama mayoral election on Sunday -- which resulted in the defeat of Suga's candidate, former National Public Safety Commission Chairman Hachiro Okonogi -- will also inevitably amplify voices within the LDP wary of the party's chances in the lower house with Suga at the helm.
In light of this precarious situation, if Suga manages to regain momentum by winning re-election in the LDP presidential race, he might very well hasten to dissolve the lower house in October, right after the party election.
The early October timing also reflects hopes that vaccination drives will have progressed by then, leading to a turnaround in the number of infections and easing political headwinds.
At a press conference on Aug. 17, the prime minister emphasized plans to "distribute enough vaccine to inoculate 80% of all eligible people by early October."
Of course, in an another conceivable scenario, the infection situation could prevent the Prime Minister from dissolving the lower house at all, leaving the election until the term of its members expires on Oct. 21.
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