The government is expected to roll out more populist policies in the coming months, such as its recently launched Niyom Yangyeun scheme, to pave the way for a potential return to power after an election in February, political scientists say.
Meanwhile, agencies are likely to quickly pass two organic laws that are needed before the election can get under way, to help ease pressure on Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who is taking flak for repeatedly delaying the highly anticipated poll.
However, if the election is not held as promised by February 2019, insiders say the regime could experience a crisis of confidence that would leave voters shunning Gen Prayut -- who made the February poll promise last Tuesday -- as he attempts to make a comeback.
A compromise appears to have been struck on Wednesday after the organic bills on the election of MPs and the selection of senators were successfully reviewed by a joint panel set up to reconcile differences between various parties. Representatives of the Constitution Drafting Committee, the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) and the Election Commission (EC) had been working to iron out contentious points in both bills. The tripartite panel on Wednesday finished its work and is due to return the bills to the NLA for a vote next Thursday.
Ubon Ratchathani University political scientist Titipol Phakdeewanich said the NLA and other agencies will help pass the election laws to reduce pressure on the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), which is led by Gen Prayut. The new constitution creates room for the NCPO to return to power after the election but it would require a certain degree of popular support to form a stable government, he said. "I am not confident the election will really take place in February 2019," he added. "Only when the royal decree on the election is issued will I believe it will happen."
Chulalongkorn University political scientist Surachart Bamrungsuk agreed the PM's latest promise was made under pressure, but he was not certain whether the organic laws will pass smoothly next Thursday. "But if the laws are passed, and the NCPO uses Section 44 to overrule them, the government will be doomed and must face a crisis," he said.
Likewise, the NCPO government will face a crisis if the election does not take place by February 2019, he said, adding that pro-election activists are already rallying and calling for elections by November this year as promised earlier by the PM, he said.
Pheu Thai Party caretaker deputy secretary-general Chavalit Wichayasuthi and key Chartthaipattana Party member, Varawut Silpa-archa, agreed Gen Prayut's announcement helped to increase confidence that the organic laws will be passed by the NLA, rather than dropped which may affect the election timeline. According to the constitution, an election must be held within 150 days after the organic laws on MP elections and senator selection become effective. However, the NLA in January passed the MP election bill with a clause that delays it coming into effect for 90 days after its promulgation.
Describing such a condition as a "legally supernatural", Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said Thursday the public must closely look at whether there will be such things in the future. "We must not forget the people believe that the NCPO can control the main direction [of the timeline] as it can control the Five Rivers, the agencies involved in the legislation process," he said. "In my opinion, to create confidence depends on the signal given by the NCPO chief."
Democrat Party deputy leader Nipit Intarasombat said many are concerned by the PM's remark that if there is any chaos, the election can't be held. "This is not a constitution [issue], it is about what the PM wants. If he is unhappy, he might postpone the election again, so we must not make the PM feel edgy," he said.
