The advent of NFL free agency is just days away, and the New Orleans Saints are as busy as any other team in preparing for it. Despite travel restrictions and other in-house changes in response to the COVID-19 coronavirus, the Saints are moving forwards with business as usual.
So why haven’t they made any moves yet? Where are the annual salary cap cuts, restructures, and contract extensions with pending free agents? Like most teams, the Saints are waiting for the NFL Players Association to finish voting on the proposed collective bargaining agreement, which will dictate how teams do business over the next decade. Voting closes at midnight on Saturday, and Saints punter Thomas Morstead (a member of the NFLPA executive committee), has already voiced support for the new CBA.
Still, we’ll take a look at predicting what the Saints may do in the days, weeks, and months ahead. Here’s your road map to a busy Saints offseason.
- Creating more salary cap space
- Dealing with pending free agents
- Entering the free agent market
- Making the most of limited draft picks
Creating more salary cap space
Right now, the Saints are projected to sit about $9.3 million beneath the 2020 salary cap (per Over The Cap, which estimates an even $200 million salary cap). Creating more spending-room is always an offseason priority for them, and we’ve already identified four possible cap casualties (as well as four draft prospects who could help replace them). While releasing those players outright is the simpler path, it’s more likely the Saints try and negotiate pay cuts first.
A name we overlooked but whose future in New Orleans should very much be in doubt is Kiko Alonso, who is rehabbing a last-minute ACL tear. The Saints could try to get him to agree to a pay cut, but it’s also possible they release him outright now before bringing him back later in the offseason at a lower salary. Alex Anzalone is “good to go” from a season-ending injury, and rookie backup Kaden Elliss also recently updated his progress in his own ACL recovery.
Expect a few restructures before the Saints begin re-upping their soon-to-be free agents. Logical candidates for restructured deals (lowering 2020 base salaries by converting them to prorated signing bonuses) include Terron Armstead and Michael Thomas, each of whom are under contract at least through 2021 and carry salary cap hits in excess of $15 million. The Saints can create $13 million in new cap space by restructuring just two contracts.
But who could the Saints re-sign ahead of schedule, effectively restructuring other salary cap hits? We highlighted players like Larry Warford (due $12.8 million against the cap) and Demario Davis ($9.9 million) as candidates for ahead-of-the-curve contract extensions. Rapidly-developing markets at running back and free safety might prompt the Saints to try and re-up Alvin Kamara and Marcus Williams while they’re still playing on rookie contracts, too. Getting the jump on those deals would save millions down the road.
However, the biggest domino to fall is clearly Drew Brees. His 2020 cap number is going to be at least $15.9 million, and the Saints must finalize his new contract extension before they can work out any other big moves. Expect this situation to resolve quickly should the CBA be ratified. The good news is that Brees is likely to settle for another contract extension beneath his market value.
We’ll make a conservative estimate that the Saints go into free agency with about $16 million in salary cap space, which is much more than they’ve dealt with in the past. Expect the always-crafty salary cap wizards in the front office to find even more cash to spend, though.
- Creating more salary cap space
- Dealing with pending free agents
- Entering the free agent market
- Making the most of limited draft picks
Dealing with pending free agents
Let’s refocus on this year’s Saints free agent class. As many as 27 players could leave for new teams, though the Saints can retain some of them (restricted free agents like Taysom Hill) easier than others (like David Onyemata, apparently a hot commodity), while older veterans such as Zach Line have already opted for retirement.
Of those 27 free agents, 18 carry unrestricted status and should garner interest on the open market. We’ve predicted that 11 will return to the Saints, while the others should get offers New Orleans might struggle to compete with. In particular, Onyemata, Andrus Peat, Eli Apple, and P.J. Williams should get better opportunities than the Saints can offer from salary and playing-time perspectives. Teddy Bridgewater is arguably the best quarterback on the market for teams looking for a fresh face of the franchise.
Who should the Saints move on from? Ted Ginn’s continued decline should mean his days in black and gold are behind him. A.J. Klein’s roster spot can probably be upgraded, but he also should be an affordable option and is open to returning to New Orleans. If Onyemata does land a blockbuster contract offer, the Saints have an ascending talent in Shy Tuttle, who could be ready for a bigger role.
All of this sets the Saints up to evaluate options on the open market, ahead of next month’s NFL draft. So let’s see who might be on their radar.
- Creating more salary cap space
- Dealing with pending free agents
- Entering the free agent market
- Making the most of limited draft picks
Entering the free agent market
The Saints should have three critical needs in free agency, with wide receiver and offensive guard at the top of the list. They’re followed closely by linebacker, which may be the best position to address with a veteran free agent. Affordable options like Detroit Lions slot receiver Danny Amendola and Buffalo Bills left guard Quinton Spain have already re-signed with their teams, as has Chicago Bears linebacker Danny Trevathan.
One name already tied to the Saints is Jamie Collins, who has worn several hats with the New England Patriots and would be a high-upside signing for New Orleans. Collins can play the same strong side role as Klein while impressing as a third-down pass rusher, able to move up and rush directly off the line of scrimmage when the situation demands. But he recently changed agents and is expecting a big pay day, signing the same representation as Saints safety Vonn Bell.
If the Saints strike out in pursuit of a top-tier linebacker like Collins or Cory Littleton, they could try out more budget-friendly options such as Christian Kirksey and Tahir Whitehead (who won’t count against the 2021 compensatory draft pick formula), or take a swing at a familiar prospect in Atlanta Falcons standout De’Vondre Campbell. It’s vital that they identify a durable playmaker who can start next to Davis in nickel sets, which the Saints used more than any other formation in 2019.
So, let’s say that the Saints add a veteran linebacker that gives them confidence. They also sign real competition for Nick Easton at left guard (Graham Glasgow would be a nice addition, but may be outside their budget if Easton remains at his current salary), and bring in a receiver looking to break out after being buried on a stacked depth chart (Breshad Perriman is a very intriguing target). Less-prominent moves would involve recruiting depth at cornerback and a veteran, pocket-style passer who can back up Brees without requiring as many schematic changes as Hill.
That sets them up to attack the draft as usual, pursuing the best players available. So while it’s far too soon to accurately project what the Saints will do on draft day, here’s our best guess, based off these moves.
- Creating more salary cap space
- Dealing with pending free agents
- Entering the free agent market
- Making the most of limited draft picks
Making the most of limited draft picks
If there was ever a year for the Saints to try and back out of the first round, this is it. The depth of this class at receiver and the scarcity of top-end talent at quarterback, linebacker, and along the offensive line just makes it the smart move — before you even consider that the Saints have just five choices in this year’s draft, with 60-plus selections made between their first and second picks.
The intelligence behind a move down makes even more sense when you consider how things are shaking out. Clemson all-star wideout Tee Higgins could be available early in the second round after a so-so pro day workout, which would be a steal given his obvious talent. The wealth of available options means that skilled talent might be overlooked in favor of better athletes, as happened a few years ago when Michael Thomas fell to the Saints in the second round. New Orleans could benefit from other teams’ overthinking again.
Unfortunately, trading down flies in the face of precedent. The Saints haven’t done that since the 2007 and 2008 drafts when Sean Payton was rebuilding the roster from the ground up. Instead, their strategy often focuses on trading up, targeting prospects who the Saints are confident can fit in and contribute right away. To illustrate that point, here’s a fun fact: Payton has traded up in every draft he’s conducted, except for 2006 (his first year on the job; the Saints also stood pat in 2012, when he was suspended).
But it wouldn’t be the first time the Saints have zigged when they were expected to zag. If another team makes them an offer they can’t refuse, they could strongly benefit from fighting their always-aggressive instincts.
