Rafael Behr (Opinion, 21 September) and senior Liberal Democrats who question the wisdom of Tim Farron’s commitment to a second referendum once the terms of Brexit are settled, assume present attitudes will persist. They ignore the likelihood that negotiations will end in “a hard Brexit”.
Continued membership of the single market and of the EU customs union is the least likely outcome. Outside both, the prospect of an easy conclusion of favourable new free trade agreements (FTAs) with the rest of the world is a pipe dream. We would not only need a new FTA with the EU, likely to be a protracted negotiation as it has to be agreed by all 27 members, but also with some 50 countries with which the EU now has FTAs, as well as those with which it is now negotiating, principally China and the US. We would also have to re-enter the World Trade Organisation, which involves making a number of commitments that have to be approved by all 164 WTO members.
London’s survival as the financial centre of Europe would also be in doubt. Outside the single market financial institutions would be unlikely to obtain the passports they need for doing business in the single market.
The obstacles to a swift solution that would benefit our world trade are numerous and formidable.
The likely result within a few years is a “Brexit recession”, caused by reduced foreign investment, even disinvestment, by those who once saw Britain as the gateway to the single market – Japanese carmakers, for example – as well as an exodus of British companies to the continent. By the time negotiations conclude, there is likely to be a major shift in public opinion against our leaving the EU.
Dick Taverne
House of Lords
• Polly Toynbee (Get serious, Labour rebels, your country needs you, 20 September) makes the valid point that these 172 MPs should be standard bearers for the nation’s pro-EU 48%. In this context, I think it should also be borne in mind that less than 35% of the electorate voted for Brexit. Surely our elected representatives must take account of the 65% who, for whatever reasons, did not vote for the UK to leave the EU. It is another good reason for parliament, and not solely the prime minister, to decide whether to trigger article 50 of the Lisbon treaty.
Mike Pender
Cardiff
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