Plans are being made for a potential ‘firebreak’ lockdown next month, according to a senior government scientist.
An official is warning that the UK is heading for an ‘extended peak’ of Covid-19 hospital cases, which could ‘push the NHS to the brink of collapse’, reports the i.
The official is a member of the government’s scientific advisory group for emergencies — commonly referred to as Sage.
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They told the i that ‘hospitalisations are on a path to match the levels seen at the end of October last year’ — which is when the country entered a month-long autumn lockdown.
The expert did however add that deaths will not increase to their 2020 levels, as ‘vaccines are doing their job’.
“If you look at the current trends, hospitalisations are on a path to match the levels seen at the end of October last year,” said the source.
“While deaths are high compared to last year and are unlikely to hit the levels as seen last autumn because the vaccines are doing their job, it is the admissions that will push the NHS to the brink of collapse if they do not fall soon.
They added: “We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks.”
Further pressure on the health system is expected to come from other, non-Covid illnesses, the expert added — which were largely down last year.
“On top of that we have an expected resurgence in hospitalisations for other respiratory illnesses like flu,” they said. “If the current high levels of admissions for Covid continue the NHS will not be able to cope, so a firebreak lockdown is by no means out of the question.”
In Greater Manchester, four of ten boroughs are above England’s average coronavirus case rate.
The national rate is currently 315.3 cases per 100,000 people — with Tameside, Stockport, Trafford, and Salford are all above this level.
