Stranded Australians bracing for their flights home to be cancelled are furious at the prospect of having to join the bottom of the queue for government assistance to return, as international airlines are told they can only allow as few as five passengers on to their planes to comply with Australia’s soon to be halved arrival cap.
Airlines have even been allocated “zero” passenger allowances for some flights, meaning they will have to fly empty planes into Australia.
Airlines flying zero passenger flights will have to rely on carrying cargo and outbound passengers to make the routes financially sustainable, however some are expected to halt services to Australia entirely as a result of the new caps.
Rather than cleanly halving the number of passengers each flight can carry, the new passenger limits, which airlines must comply with by 14 July, appear to incentivise airlines decreasing route frequency to allow them to group their passenger allowances into fewer, more financially sustainable flights.
One-third of all flights into Sydney have been given zero passenger allocations, while the remainder will only be allowed to carry between 25-26 passengers. Sydney’s weekly flight cap will be halved to 1,505 from 14 July – the largest of any airport.
Between 14 July and the end of August, a handful of flights into Melbourne will be cut to zero, with most flights limited to 11 to 13 passengers.
Across Brisbane and Perth, passenger limits vary from as few as five passengers per flight, up to 12 passengers per flights for airlines that adjust their frequencies.
In the days since national cabinet decided on Friday to cut Australia’s weekly quarantine intake from 6,070 to 3,035 – a lower intake than when the initial cap of 4,000 was first introduced last July – prices for remaining seats into Australia have skyrocketed.
As a result, prices for one-way economy flights from London to Sydney on some airlines have risen to as much as $36,000 from when the new caps come into effect on 14 July, while other airlines have halted sales into Australia until further details about their passenger allowances become clear.
Thousands of those with tickets already booked are expected to be bumped and join the list of the 34,500 Australians who are currently registered with the government as wanting to return home but being unable to do so.
Spokespeople for All Nippon Airways and Cathay Pacific have told the Guardian that disruption was imminent, while Etihad and Singapore Airlines spokespeople have indicated the airlines would continue flying to Australia despite the new limitations.
Airlines have estimated 18,000 people will be bumped by the end of August. However, when the cuts to the caps were announced last Friday, Scott Morrison indicated they could remain halved until next year, in line with the vaccination-aligned stages of reopening Australia.
Given a recent surge in exemptions granted to exit Australia, the sudden halving of the caps is expected to leave Australians who have travelled urgently for compassionate reasons stranded without access to flights home.
The Guardian has been inundated by Australians overseas who had flights booked to Australia in coming weeks who are now preparing emergency accommodation plans in anticipation of having their flights cancelled.
The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, which maintains the register of those stranded, told the Guardian that while it planned to run further repatriation flights in coming weeks, vulnerable Australians would be prioritised.
Reverend Andrew Cooper is expecting that because he has a cheaper economy ticket booked home for 23 July, he will be one of the first people bumped from his flight.
The Anglican priest has been working in Scotland for the past four years, and while he knew for some time his stint at his church would end and that he would begin a new role at a Brisbane church in August, Cooper deliberately booked his flight for months in advance, knowing there were others more desperate to come home earlier.
He also expected that by July travelling to Australia would become easier.
Instead, Cooper now faces an indefinite period without income if he is bumped from his flight, knowing he is unlikely to qualify for vulnerable priority to repatriation flights.
“I will become unemployed and homeless when my job here in the UK finishes in two weeks and will then have to lean on the government for assistance as the ticket prices will explode and I’m on a priest stipend ... All my worldly possessions are already in a container somewhere at sea so it’s already out of suitcases,” he said.
Cooper is furious at Dfat, claiming the department told him months ago not to register on its list of those stuck overseas because he had tickets for a commercial flight home.
“There is no way to indicate you are intending to return if you are on commercial tickets so the numbers Dfat quotes as wanting to come home are way lower than in reality,” Cooper said.
“I’m stressed, despondent and deeply anxious … Lord only knows how folk with families or separated from partners cope.”
A Dfat spokesman did not directly address whether those booked on commercial flights were counted in the 34,500 of those registered as stranded.
Meanwhile, Jane Halton, a health expert who conducted a review of Australia’s hotel quarantine system, on Tuesday said she was concerned at the number of people offshore who are still vulnerable, and disappointed that caps would be halved.
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