Fremantle
It’s becoming a bit of a truism, but the Dockers just don’t score heavily enough. They can score quickly (take the Derby in round three, Sydney in round four or North in round 19), but the goals dry up. Yes, Walters and (maybe) Ballantyne back in the team is a massive help, but small forwards as we’ve seen over the years can struggle to find space in finals.
In their five losses this year, the Dockers average a whopping minus 27.6 marks against compared to plus 6.2 in their 17 wins. They rank 13th league wide for marks inside 50, even despite being fourth for contested marks. They have only two forwards Matthew Pavlich (25th) and Chris Mayne (37th) inside the top 50 league wide for marks inside 50.
Makeshift forward lines are difficult to put together. Young defender Alex Pearce was tried in round 17 against St. Kilda in a few unorthodox ways (starting up forward at the centre bounce to be then dragged up to the wing to create space behind him), but this is only solving part of the puzzle.
Ross Lyon needs a presence up forward. Having Pearce and Mayne lead wide and drag opponents out for Aaron Sandilands and Pavlich to get more one-on-ones is one idea. Another involves adapting their plan of pushing up to stoppages and leaving space for two half forward targets and then one deeper at full forward.
West Coast
The genius in the concept of the “Weagles Web” lies in the awareness of the back six to shift over and play in front/away from their man, relying on the ability of defenders to make the right call and intercept when required.
Usually when trying to outnumber a team at a contest, other teams fall back on the use of a loose man. This can rob the use of a number elsewhere on the ground. Players like Jeremy McGovern and Will Schofield have done well to use natural instinct rather than weight of numbers to win contests.
The problem is that teams will use the footage of how Adelaide opened them up by going “around” the web. The Crows in round 22 were smart enough to deploy a quick switch and used the “fat side” of the ground to find targets and isolate their forwards in space.
Fighting this exists in the gamble that the loose man (someone who’s a swingman like Eliott Yeo) can add something and relieve pressure on a system that has the potential to crack against better teams. If in a moment of peril, moving Yeo back with a sheer focus on defending and acting as a driver of play on the fat side of the ground maybe be worth it.
Hawthorn
There is no magic bullet to beating Hawthorn, rather a combination of factors that need to go your way. In their losses this season, there are two susceptibilities that are apparent – one statistical, one structural.
What Richmond did by controlling the tempo of the game in round 18, was also done by Essendon in round two and Port in round 21. In wins, Hawthorn on average have 46.4 more disposals than the opposition and in losses a deficit on average of 0.3 – a net differential of 46.7.
The other vulnerability comes in the form of their defensive structure. Brian Lake, James Frawley, Josh Gibson, Grant Birchall et al, whilst all fantastic players, can appear vulnerable as a group when their zone is pushed up too high. All of them play quite tall and Port’s fleet of smalls used this to their advantage in round 21, scoring many goals when they found space over the back.
For the Hawks, there’s no real dramatic change to their system. The focus should be on their discipline off the ball. For the forwards, strict zoning and the prevention of allowing opposition defenders to switch the ball. For the defenders, don’t get sucked into ground contests inside 50 and always watch for opposition numbers getting forward of the ball.
Sydney
Sydney’s style hasn’t dramatically evolved since 2012, compressing up the ground and leaving the forward line open for their high profile personnel to move freely.
There are two issues that have crippled them in 2015 – their speed and accuracy when using the ball out of defence and their forward structure was burdened Tippett’s ruck duties, Franklin’s absences and Goodes’s decline.
For a team that has preferred getting from point A to point B quickly, they’re ranked first in the league for disposals yet ranked equal seventh for disposal efficiency and eighth for inside 50s. They’re also ranked seventh for rebound 50s (a stat where the lower the better because you only need to get the ball out of there once – etc. West Coast rank 18th, Fremantle 17th, Hawthorn 16th).
These numbers portray multiple problems – they’re not only overusing the ball (a bad thing when you want to move it quickly), but it’s not getting all the way to the other end and it’s coming back to bite them on the counter. It’s likely intrinsically linked to how they’re unable to get clear targets up the ground with their missing/inconsistent key forwards.
This is where Sam Reid becomes important. Against opposition where there isn’t two monster key forwards to deal with in defence, it’s worth letting him lead up ground with potentially Nankervis or Kennedy to provide marking targets coming out of the back half. This would drag their defenders with them and leave Goodes one out with space to lead into for quick counters.
Richmond
Tempo is the key word for Richmond. There are mainly two key styles of play for the Tigers. One mimics Sydney’s counter attacking ploys, the other is the trudging and careful passing that we saw against the Hawks in round 18. The reason why the Tigers have played good footy in 2015 is that they’ve timed and worked out which variation works against different opponents.
In a sudden death game, it’s about adapting to the situation and halting opposition momentum. In their finals collapses, they will have fallen victim to opposition onslaughts. Carlton in 2013 came from the clouds to beat them and Port Adelaide in 2014 obliterated them in 20 minutes.
Their marks differential in 2015 in wins (102.3) compared to losses (85.0) indicates that compared to 2014, (87 marks in wins compared to 86.2 in losses) they’ve got to back their own improved ball control and slow the game down when required.
Western Bulldogs
The Dogs’ brand of footy is quite self-evident – aggressive and fluid. The whole concept is more nuanced than keeping the ball moving. Like Port Adelaide in 2013 and 2014, it exists to try and beat teams to the punch when setting up a defensive zone. Moving the ball quickly gives you the best chance to find a one-on-one.
Naturally the issue of moving the ball at a speed comes with the problem of committing too many players forward if there’s a turn over. Every team the Dogs run into will be looking to exploit this, so discipline off the ball is an absolute priority.
In a similar manner to how the Hawks force opponents down the line by blocking passing lanes and holding up men on the mark, the Dogs have to do this when they slow down the game to catch their breath.
They trialled something similar in round 20 against Melbourne, with three or four players congregating around a 20-metre radius of the mark on half-back, stopping the quick kick short or running handball.
Adelaide
The Crows’ greatest asset is their forward line. What has worked for them this season, is the structure that these three marking types adhere to. In a nutshell, Tom Lynch (leads the competition in goal assists – 29 at 1.4 a game) leads up as the high half-forward, acting as the conduit between midfield and the forward line. Josh Jenkins will then drop deep into the goal square which has two intentions.
Firstly, it isolates the quite tall Jenkins one-on-one with his opponent close to goal. Secondly, it give Taylor Walker the whole 50 to roam and prevents Jenkins’ opponent from zoning off to go outnumber Walker at a contest.
The system works fine, but the issue is this tactic will be page one of any opposition scouting report. Adding unfamiliar rhythms to this plan will potentially throw out any means of countering it. Rotate Walker into the Lynch role, forcing the opposition’s best defender up the ground with him for 10 or so minutes. Rest Sam Jacobs one-on-one in the goal square or even just keep rotating the three.
North Melbourne
One of the areas that holds North back is the flat-footedness of their defensive half. Robbie Tarrant, Lachie Hansen and Michael Firrito are lumbering types, whilst Scott Thompson has looked really hampered this season. Jamie Macmillan and Sam Wright rely on smarts rather than speed, while silky hopeful Luke McDonald has faced second year blues.
This leaves us with Shaun Atley. Atley leads the rest of the defensive group with 26 running bounces (1.3 a game) and 48 inside 50s (2.4 a game) and 71% of his disposals are uncontested. Ultimately, he’s really the only line-breaker they have coming from deep.
The problem North have is other teams are more than aware of this and over the last few seasons have been employing defensive tactics to block his running. It’s no coincidence that North looked better in transition in 2014 when McDonald and Daniel Wells (in his limited appearances) were able to break the lines with neat passing.
Brent Harvey was dragged further up the ground earlier in the season, but it caused North to be robbed of movement forward of centre. Atley has to be given assistance from team-mates (shepherding or handball option), or has to break lines along the boundary and then look to pass the ball inward.
.jpg?w=600)
