A PLAID Cymru politician has pledged “independence is not off the table in any way” despite the party’s leader saying there would be no immediate referendum bid if they form a government next May.
Earlier this year, leader Rhun Ap Iorwerth said Plaid would not push for a referendum to leave the UK in their first term if they become the largest party in the Senedd following next year’s elections.
But Heledd Fychan, a Plaid Cymru member of the Senedd [MS], told the Sunday National independence will “unequivocally” be in the party’s manifesto and they will push for progress on an independent commission that found self-determination is a viable option for Wales.
Fychan said: “We never shy away from independence, but even when the SNP first came into power [in Scotland], they didn’t do it in their first term either.
“There’s a lot of work to do before you hold that referendum. You also need a majority vote as well to be able to progress that, and the polling doesn’t show any party having an outright majority in the Senedd. Of course, all of that can change.”
She added: “It’s about bringing people with us, and there are lots of things we’d need to get to grips with to begin with.
“[But] independence is not off the table in any way. I can unequivocally say independence will be there [in the manifesto].”
The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales was published in January 2024 and concluded the status quo and current devolution settlement are “not sustainable”.
It was established under the co-operation agreement between Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Government, which was ended last year by the former amid concerns over then-first minister Vaughan Gething’s election campaign finances.
The commission recommended a range of measures to strengthen the current settlement for Wales, including the devolution of justice and policing.
Fychan (below) said Plaid Cymru would want to be clear with the UK Government from the off about the need for further devolution.
Asked if Plaid would seek to edge things forward on independence, as Ap Iorwerth pledged in July, she said: “Certainly.
“There was a commission which looked into various options for Wales’s future and showed the status quo doesn’t work for Wales.
“We still don’t understand the refusal of Labour to devolve some things which are already devolved to Scotland, so we’d be keen to progress that because there are things holding us back.
“A priority would be ensuring that we be clear with the UK Government about trying to establish timescales to progress a number of things.”
The Senedd will be moving away from an additional member voting system next year – which is a mixture of first past the post and proportional representation – to an entirely proportional set-up, with its current 60 seats increasing to 96.
This will open up a number of possibilities for whoever forms a government and Fychan said Plaid are looking at the SNP’s path towards clinching a referendum for inspiration on how to realise their independence dream.
“The numbers we’re seeing don’t rule out Plaid Cymru being in a similar position to the SNP in 2007 when they went for a minority government,” she said.
“We’re looking carefully at what happened in Scotland in 2007 and what that meant then for the SNP in the following election as well.”
Labour have been in power for more than a century in Wales. They first won more Welsh seats and votes than their rivals at the General Election in 1922, and researchers have previously described it as the longest winning streak of any political party in the world.
But polls have consistently indicated the picture is changing. A YouGov survey showed last week that Plaid would take the most seats in the Senedd for the first time in their history with 38. Reform would be just one seat behind them on 37, but Labour would only take 11.
Professor John Curtice told The National last week that defeat in Wales would be a much bigger threat to Starmer’s leadership than a failure to take power in Scotland, given Labour’s mammoth streak of success there.
Fychan said she a defeat for Labour in Wales would be “huge” and polls consistently suggesting they will not come close to being able to lead a government is something she considers “quite remarkable”.
She said Plaid are now looking at their best opportunity to lead a Welsh Government since the onset of devolution.
“Those that were close to the campaign in 1999 say there’s a similar feeling there,” she said.
“We did have a good election result then, several seats in Labour heartlands nearly came our way, so I would think it’s our best opportunity since 1999, but the polling is even more positive now.
“We are also coming off the back of our best-ever Westminster result, so there is momentum there with Plaid Cymru and what we have been able to demonstrate while the Senedd has been in existence is we have credible policy offers.
“We’ve been able to deliver things like free school meals for every primary school child through the cooperation agreement.
“We’re seeing a willingness from people to engage with us we probably haven’t seen to date. We’ve sometimes struggled to cut through with the media and I think when Rhun Ap Iorwerth has been given that platform to showcase our policies, people like what they are hearing.”
However, despite Labour haemorrhaging support, Plaid are aware of the new adversary of Reform who are neck-and-neck with them in the polls.
Reform – as they have in England – have swooped in and clinched support from disillusioned voters in Wales who are not seeing the change they were promised by Labour.
Fychan said Plaid have been carefully considering how to adapt their strategy in a bid to stem the Reform tide.
“We’ve got a long tradition of progressiveness in Wales in terms of trade unions and peace movements, which is at odds with Reform,” she said.
“Our message has to be clearly targeted at those who do hold those values dear. Rather than trying to counter or target Reform supporters, I think it’s about appealing to those who are progressive, who do stand up for human rights.
“We also need to call out Reform though because they don’t have a leader, we don’t know who their first minister would be, and they don’t have a credible policy programme.”
She added: “There are things we can demonstrate we have achieved in opposition, so we we’re about to say now ‘just imagine if there was a Plaid Cymru government’ and we can deliver on all our policy agendas.”
