Plaid Cymru has hailed its win at the Caerphilly byelection as a historic moment for Wales, as the dramatic result left the leaders of Labour and Reform UK wounded.
Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party, which wants independence for Wales, seized the Senedd (Welsh parliament) constituency from Labour and resisted a fierce challenge from Reform UK.
Plaid Cymru’s candidate, Lindsay Whittle, received 15,961 votes, while Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell won 12,113. Labour’s vote collapsed in what had been a stronghold, with its candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe, polling only 3,713 votes.
The Welsh nationalists’ triumph was being put down in part to their clear, passionate call for the people of south Wales to reject Reform UK’s stance on immigration. It leaves Labour, which runs the Welsh government, facing the prospect of a meltdown at next year’s full Senedd elections.
Ap Iorwerth said the people of Caerphilly had chosen “hope over division and progress over the tired status quo”. He said: “We are now the real choice for Wales, the only party able to stop billionaire-backed Reform and offer a better future that works for everyone. Wales is ready for new leadership.”
The party said: “The victory marks a historic win for Plaid Cymru and a seismic political shift in Wales, signalling the collapse of Labour’s vote and a new two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK ahead of the 2026 Senedd election.”
The Labour Senedd member Alun Davies, talking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, criticised his party in Westminster for the way it had been speaking about refugees and “using the language of Reform”.
But the Labour UK Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds claimed Keir Starmer openly took on Reform in his conference speech.
He said: “With regard to the issue of the small boats crossing the English Channel and securing our borders, that is because people are saying to us, very clearly, it’s a huge priority for them.”
The polling expert Sir John Curtice said the result suggested Plaid was well-placed to lead the next Welsh government. But, he said: “I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst.”
The winning Plaid candidate asked people to remember Hefin David, whose sudden death led to the byelection. “He will be a hard act to follow. I will never fill his shoes, but I promise I will walk the same path that he did.”
Reform’s Powell said the party had learned a lot about campaigning, which would be put to good use at next year’s Senedd elections. “A big part of what we were trying to do here is to master our campaigning. We’ve trained so many people up on our systems. We’re now a grassroots campaigning party.”
Labour has dominated in Wales for a century but the party, which runs the Welsh government, now holds just 29 of the 60 Senedd seats and the byelection result makes it more difficult for it to pass its 2026-27 budget, which could leave the people of Wales facing cuts to public services.
The Welsh first minister and Welsh Labour leader, Eluned Morgan, said: “Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.”
The most senior Labour figure at the count, Huw Irranca-Davies, the deputy first minister of Wales, accepted that the party would have to think deeply about the result, but struck a defiant tone.
He said: “Some people are now writing us off. I have to paraphrase Mark Twain: rumours about death are greatly exaggerated. There have been occasions before where Wales has lost seats that are deep red and on those occasions we’ve bounced back having listened and come back with a compelling vision for people that is better than the doom and discord of people like Reform.
“I think we need to get back to focusing on those bread-and-butter issues, things such as cost of living, the money in people’s pockets, jobs and opportunities for young people.”
Irranca-Davies called on Plaid to talk to Labour about the budget. “It is really incumbent on some of those parties in the Senedd to come and talk to us about how we pass that budget.”
Immigration grabbed headlines during the byelection. Migration is not a devolved issue, and only about 3% of the people in the area were not born in the UK, but Reform made much of a vow to end what it called Labour and Plaid’s “mass immigration agenda”.
Labour’s standing in Wales has dropped off a cliff since Vaughan Gething stepped down as first minister last year amid a donations scandal. Morgan has tried – but so far failed – to draw a line between Welsh Labour and the increasingly unpopular UK party.
