It promises to be the most open World Cup since 1992, which probably means it will be a disaster. A month ago, no one expected anything other than an Australian win. Now the gap between the yellow jerseys and the chasing pack has narrowed. Here - with apologies to Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and the six other minnows - is the Spin's guide to the teams that could win it...
Australia
Rarely can a run of defeats have done so much for the rest of the world. Australia might still be favourites, but they are no longer overwhelmingly so. Crucially, their aura is diminished. The loss of Brett Lee and the injury to Andrew Symonds are huge. So too, potentially, is the damage done to Mike Hussey's confidence in New Zealand. But Adam Gilchrist will now be available for the entire competition following the birth of his third child, and Lee's absence makes way for Stuart Clark, who has a point to prove. Oh, and the last time Australia's noses were put out of joint, they went on the rampage.
One-day record since last World Cup: P114 W80 L28 T1 NR5 Last 10 matches: W4 L6
England
The resurgence has been great, but how relevant is it? Big-hitters at the top of the order could dictate the pace of matches on the small grounds of the Caribbean, yet England's heavy arsenal - Kevin Pietersen and Andrew Flintoff - comes in lower down. There will also be a distinct lack of swing and a categorical absence of floodlights: a repeat of Jimmy Anderson's Cape Town heroics against Pakistan four years ago would be a miracle this time. And yet: England now believe in themselves, where a few weeks ago they could hardly walk past a mirror without wincing. But they must start by beating New Zealand in the group stages: those two extra points in the Super Eights could make all the difference.
One-day record since last World Cup: P87 W39 L42 T2 NR5 Last 10 matches: W5 L5
India
It will be a last World Cup hurrah for the fabled top-order triumvirate of Sourav Ganguly, Sachin Tendulkar and Rahul Dravid, but India's opponents might be more wary of Yuvraj Singh and Mahendra Singh Dhoni, two of the biggest hitters in world cricket. The Spin also likes the look of Robin Uthappa, a 21-year-old opener whose ODI strike-rate in seven games is 114. Anil Kumble could be a match-breaker on the slow pitches, and the young seamers ooze vitality. But, as ever with India, the overseas factor looms large. In 20 ODIs in the Caribbean, they have lost 15. Expect plenty of wailing and gnashing from the Indian press corps before the competition is out.
One-day record since last World Cup: P109 W53 L50 T0 NR6 Last 10 matches: W5 L4 NR1
New Zealand
Suddenly, you quite fancy them. A lower-middle order of Jacob Oram and Brendon McCullum means they are never out of the game; Shane Bond - assuming he doesn't break down - could be the fastest man in the competition; and Stephen Fleming has regained the reputation he lost in England in 2004 as the smartest captain in the game. Lack of bowling depth and the occasional tendency of the top order to go awol are both concerns, but the off-spinner Jeetan Patel could be one of the competition's unsung heroes. And they will field like Lou Vincents. Very backable dark horses.
One-day record since last World Cup: P88 W44 L39 T0 NR5 Last 10 matches: W5 L5
Pakistan
Your guess is as good as the Spin's. If Shoaib Akhtar and Mohammad Asif are fit/pass their drugs tests/don't vanish in a puff of smoke, Pakistan can repeat their 1992 triumph. If they aren't, Pakistan can still repeat their 1992 triumph. It just depends on whether they get out of bed without slipping on the comedy roller skate left there the night before. Both versions of the Pakistan team were on show in South Africa recently: 351 for 4 at Durban; 107 all out at Cape Town four days later. Still, if the middle order can avoid costly run-outs and Shahid Afridi finally takes an entire competition by its scruff, the only slapping Shoaib Akhtar and Bob Woolmer will be doing is high-fives.
One-day record since last World Cup: P104 W59 L42 T0 NR3 Last 10 matches: W4 L5 NR1
South Africa
Is it just the Spin, or has South Africa's elevation to No1 in the one-day world rankings come at precisely the wrong moment? History suggests they don't do expectation. It also suggests a sticky World Cup end: the farcical rain-rule in 1992, an inexplicable collapse against Roger Harper's off-spin in 1996, the Allan Donald run-out in 1999 and the Duckworth/Lewis fiasco in 2003. Five in a row would be harsh. But even factoring in the peerless form, the stratospherics of Justin Kemp and the bowling of Makhaya Ntini, it's hard to avoid the niggling suspicion that South Africa will find a way to muck it up once again.
One-day record since last World Cup: P88 W51 L31 T1 NR5 Last 10 matches: W7 L2 NR1
Sri Lanka
Not many people are talking about them, but despite their shaky form they possess the batting to exploit the small boundaries. If Sanath Jayasuriya's partner-in-mayhem in 1996 was Romesh Kaluwitharana, this time it's the higher-class Upul Tharanga. Remember their stand of 286 in under 32 overs at Headingley? Kumar Sangakkara is in the form of his life, and Mahela Jayawardene has some making up to do after scoring 21 runs in seven innings in the 2003 tournament. Then there's Murali, who can win three games all by himself. A good bet for the semi-finals.
One-day record since last World Cup: P98 W55 L39 T0 NR4 Last 10 matches: W3 L5 NR2
West Indies
Even Brian Lara has wondered publicly whether his team will be able to cope with the pressures of home-town anticipation, but West Indies could be as well-equipped as any. Bowlers like Ian Bradshaw, Dwayne Bravo and Corry Collymore know all about taking the pace off the ball, and Jerome Taylor - he of the Champions Trophy hat-trick against Australia - is a rising star. But their prize match-winner could be Chris Gayle, a scorer of 15 ODI hundreds with a strike-rate of 80. His brisk off-breaks will come in handy too.
One-day record since last World Cup: P94 W40 L48 T0 NR6 Last 10 matches: W3 L7
This is an extract from Lawrence Booth's weekly cricket email The Spin.
