The George Pickens Experience is over in Pittsburgh, with the Steel City side opting to trade for Seattle Seahawks wide receiver D.K. Metcalf to be the team’s new number one option. With Metcalf in town, it always looked like the writing was on the wall for Pickens, and sure enough, the Steelers have since moved Pickens on to the Dallas Cowboys, leaving both receivers heading into 2025 in a new situation.
New teams and new quarterbacks mean new prospects, so which wide receiver looks primed to have the better 2025 season?
How Did We Get Here?
From Seattle and Metcalf’s side of things, the breakup comes down to the simple matter of a player who was looking to get paid for his years of stellar play and a team that was not ready to open up the checkbook for them. When the two sides couldn’t align on a timeline for an extension, Metcalf formally put in a trade request over the offseason and was summarily shipped off to the Steelers in exchange for a second-round pick and some late-round pick swaps. Pittsburgh locked Metcalf down to a 5-year, $150 million deal.
While the first formal move may have been Metcalf’s trade request, rumors of Pickens’ time in Pittsburgh coming to an end have been around nearly since the day he was signed. A wildly entertaining player capable of world-class catches, Pickens also picked up a reputation as a difficult player to work with, something that particularly runs afoul of the no-nonsense approach that head coach Mike Tomlin is known for. With Metcalf brought in, it was all but certain that Pickens would be moved in turn, and the Steelers shipped him off to the Cowboys in a move to help offset the lost picks in the Metcalf deal.
How Do The Receivers Stack Up?
In terms of direct production, this is a clear and immediate upgrade for the Steelers. Metcalf has outproduced Pickens every season since Pickens arrived in the NFL. The gap has been halved twice, with a 4-point edge in Pickens’ rookie season decreased to 2, then 1 point by last season. For players in leagues with bonuses for long touchdowns, Metcalf can be particularly appealing, as his ridiculous speed for a player his size has seen him score from inside his own half in every season of his career.
While things definitely point toward an improvement in the wide receiver room for Pittsburgh, that’s no guarantee of a better fantasy year for Metcalf this year for one big reason in two big ways: the quarterback room. When it comes to past production, it’s clear Metcalf has had more to work with. First, while he was getting the final productive years of Russel Wilson’s career and a resurgent Geno Smith, Pickens had Kenny Pickett, Justin Fields, and the third “dude is washed” season of Wilson’s career.
What Are Their Supporting Casts?
The second way Pickens may benefit through QB-comparisons is by finding himself in a better situation this year. While the Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s return from a severe hamstring injury offers pause for concern, his last full season in 2023 was arguably the best of his career statistically. Rodgers, conversely, posted decent looking stats on paper but clearly lost the locker room, made more negative headlines than positive ones and posted a TD/INT rate less than half that of his career.
Most notably his touchdown percentage of 4.8% each of the last two years is his joint-second worst in a full season. If Rodgers continues to regress while also continuing to expect unstoppable superstar treatment it could turn things toxic in the Steelers receiving game, damaging Metcalf’s value significantly.
X-Factor Considerations
Ultimately, the intrigue of fantasy football comes from the unpredictable variables that play a part in the success of players. Here are some key considerations that will determine which receiver has the better year:
- How will Rodgers call his games?: As anyone who has been a fan of the Steelers in recent years can attest, offensive play calling has been a sore spot. While Matt Canada was finally ousted last season, Arthur Smith came in with a similarly frustratingly conservative approach. With Rodgers under center, his at-the-line play calling may lead to more big-play opportunities for the explosive Metcalf.
- What will post-injury Dak look like?: The Cowboys’ passer looked like an elite QB still in his last full season, but coming back from an injury, particularly a serious one, always leads to questions. Prescott has already proven his ability to bounce back in the past, but if he struggles to reach his previous levels, it could seriously hinder Pickens’ potential.
- Where will their teams spread the looks?: With Calvin Austin III and Robert Woods as his platoon mates, Metcalf is an undeniable top option, though he lacks support. Pickens, conversely, has Jalen Tolbert in the three slot while CeeDee Lamb will likely remain the first look. While this offers more competition, it also means defenses will not be able to focus on Pickens the way they can on Metcalf, potentially opening up big days.
Who Will Have A Better Year?
The safer bet right now appears to be Metcalf. For all of Rodgers’ struggles with the Jets, top receiver Garret Wilson still put up 14.8 ppg last season, the best in his three years as a pro. Metcalf remains a talented and productive receiver who should have a decent floor most weeks.
Pickens is more of a gamble, though he is also the receiving option that may have the highest upside. If the Cowboys offense gets rolling, the passing offense presents a multi-pronged attack that is hard to manage. Prescott has shown the ability to feed multiple fantasy pass catchers, and a move to the #2-position could lead to a breakout year for Pickens.
