With training camp just around the corner, Pro Football Focus went through their projections for the best and worst-case scenarios for each team entering the 2021 season.
For the Indianapolis Colts, the best-case scenario has them finishing as an 11-6 while the worst-case scenario has them all the way down to a record of 6-11, which would be the worst record for the organization since 2017.
“90th percentile outcome: 11-6
How they get there: Frank Reich is once again able to bring out the best in Wentz, who at least looks more like the 2019 version of himself, if not the MVP candidate he was in 2017. Offseason signing Eric Fisher comes back healthy and maintains stability at left tackle after Anthony Castonzo’s retirement, leaving Indianapolis with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.First-round selection Kwity Paye is able to provide an instant impact along the defensive line alongside DeForest Buckner. The former San Francisco 49er ranked seventh among interior defenders in pressures (53) in his first year with the team last season.”
This seems to be about right. If Wentz returns to a high level of play after remastering his mechanics and trusting the offense, the Colts have a good chance to do some damage.
The other part of the equation is the production the Colts will get from the edge rushers. Paye will certainly get his opportunities to shine, but the Colts will need some help from players like Kemoko Turay, Ben Banogu and Tyquan Lewis as well.
As for the worst-case scenario:
“10th percentile outcome: 6-11
How they get there: The change of scenery doesn’t do Carson Wentz any good. He once again resembles the quarterback we saw in 2020 — the one who led the NFL in turnover-worthy plays (24) and ranked last in the league in accurate-pass rate (46.8%).A young edge defender rotation cannot replace the production from Justin Houston and Denico Autry, either. That gives opposing quarterbacks more time to find receivers working against Xavier Rhodes and Rock Ya-Sin, with the latter coming off a 48.2 coverage grade in 2020.”
Wentz and the pass rush essentially hold the season in their hands. How they perform will determine what their ceiling looks like even if a 6-11 record may be difficult to see given the talent throughout the entire roster.
What say you, Colts fans? Do you agree with these scenarios?
