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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
National
Christopher Knaus

Polling shows Shorten would surge in popularity if Dutton was PM – as it happened

Until tomorrow, dear readers

The hour is late. Parliament is quiet. Don’t be fooled though, the various contenders will all be doing the numbers and working the phones tonight.

We’re going to wrap up the coverage now. Thanks so much for sticking with me. It’s been a hell of a day. Remember to tune in tomorrow, when we’re likely to learn who will be the next prime minister of Australia.

Here’s what we’re expecting:

  • There’s a Turnbull-imposed time for the party room meeting at midday tomorrow. Turnbull is saying he’ll only hold the meeting (and therefore allow a spill for the leadership) if he is presented with the petition of 43 signatures, a majority of the party. Dutton’s camp think they’re close to that number.
  • The possible contenders so far are Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton and Julie Bishop. That is liable to change. The numbers are being worked late into the night. Our latest word was that Morrison was slightly ahead of Bishop as the alternative candidate to Dutton.
  • Turnbull is all but done. The fatal blow was delivered by Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash and Mitch Fifield this morning, when they abandoned him. If the spill is called, Turnbull will take it as a vote of no-confidence in his leadership and step aside. He says he would leave parliament, which puts Dutton in a tricky position, because it triggers a byelection and jeopardises the Coalition’s ability to marshall a majority in the lower house.
  • A crucial piece to this puzzle is Dutton’s eligibility to sit in parliament. Turnbull wants the solicitor general’s advice on Dutton’s case before the party room before the leadership spill. It’s unclear whether that advice will arrive in time. Dutton’s camp thinks he’s in the clear, and have their own legal advice to support that position. Leading constitutional lawyers disagree. They think there’s a serious question to be answered by Dutton. Only parliament can refer him to the high court but the issue might be enough to create doubt and anxiety in Liberal ranks.
  • Don’t forget those crossbenchers and rogue Nationals, either. Darren Chester, a Nat, is still not saying whether he would guarantee confidence and supply to a Dutton government. Other crossbenchers are making similar statements. The Coalition has a one-seat majority.
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Updated

“Hang your heads in shame,” the NT News blares on tomorrow’s front page. Fair to say the paper’s reflecting voter sentiment. Hard to see any new PM getting much of a bump in the polls, given the messiness of this spill.

An accurate representation of my current surroundings.

Jennifer Westacott, the Business Council of Australia chief executive, says the current leadership crisis engulfing parliament is affecting business confidence and certainty. Worst of all? It’s been like this for a decade.

She tells Sky News:

This is terrible. It’s terrible for business confidence. It’s terrible for certainty. But mostly it’s terrible for Australian people, who want to think that their parliament is there to advance their interests and think about their jobs, and their future, and their kids future.

The worst thing is that we’ve been in this ... for a decade. And what that’s meant is that as a country we have just stopped being able to get anything done. All the issues and problems that existed last week are here this week and will be there next week. We have an unproductive economy ... we don’t have an energy policy, we’ve got rising energy prices.

Jennifer Westacott, CEO of the Business Council of Australia
Jennifer Westacott, CEO of the Business Council of Australia. Photograph: Dean Lewins/AAP

Updated

We’ve just heard a very interesting dissection of the Liberal party’s woes on the ABC’s 7.30 program, where both Amanda Vanstone, former Howard minister, and John Hewson, former Liberal leader, appeared. They both raise concerns about Dutton’s ability to actually guarantee supply through the House of Representatives, which could prove a barrier to the governor general making him PM.

Hewson says the conservatives are “kidding themselves” if they think they can win with a narrow, far-right position.

They are kidding themselves to imagine that they could win an election by taking a hardline, right, genuine conservative position to the Australian people. To give up the centre ground, to give up some of the left issues that are of importance to very significant percentages of the Australian community, they’re kidding themselves they can win by narrowing the focus.

He also labels Abbott and Dutton “wreckers” and says it will only be a matter of time before Abbott destabilises a Dutton cabinet.

Abbott’s convinced hapless Dutton to lead the country. For how long? Imagine a Dutton cabinet with Abbott sitting there. How long would it take before he started to destabilise Dutton? He’s about rewriting the past. That’s the tragedy of all this - very self-absorbed behaviour on his part, risking the future of the Liberal party.

Hewson’s comments are less than welcomed by some within the Coalition.

Vanstone says the Liberal party, under Howard, was able to accommodate the broad church. She said that was crucial to Howard’s longevity.

Vanstone said the belief that you needed to lurch to the right to win in Queensland is wrong.

If it’s so critical to the right wing that we have someone like Dutton as leader, how does Warren Entsch, in the most northern seat in Queensland, a same-sex marriage supporter, get re-elected? You know why? Because he’s a good member, that’s why.

Updated

Seselja claims petition has 'around about' the required number of signatures

Zed Seselja, a conservative and key Dutton backer, says there is “around about” the required number of names on the petition calling for a party room meeting. That does sound awfully vague, but it’s roughly in line with what we heard from Liberal MPs earlier. You’ll remember that Turnbull has told them they need 43 signatures (a majority of the party) to force him into a party room meeting.

Well look I don’t know. I am not running the signatures. I’ve heard that it’s over 40, certainly around about the mark. But I would say this to you Leigh, it would be extraordinary and I would say untenable if we were to say that we would leave Canberra without having resolved this issue.

Seselja also says questions about Dutton’s eligibility for parliament are a “red herring”.

He says Dutton’s got strong legal advice that he’s in the clear, including from a former commonwealth solicitor general. The questions have been around for months but Labor has not sought to bring it to parliament for a referral to the high court.

He says it’s very difficult to win elections without the party’s base backing it. That’s why people are supporting Dutton, he says.

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Senator Zed Seselja. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

'Insanity prevails': key Turnbull backer slams civil war

Craig Laundy, a Liberal MP and key Turnbull backer, has just appeared on ABC’s 7.30.

He said the spill was “bizarre”, “crazy” and “insanity”. Laundy says the Liberals don’t even have candidate preselected in some electorates, despite the fact the spill may precipitate an early election.

I mean, we’re now in a situation where if the spill motion does carry tomorrow, we have a party room meeting, you know, we could potentially be in an election in the not-too-distant future. We still don’t have candidates preselected in a lot of seats around Australia.

Laundy says the minority of rebels in his party simply did not learn the lessons of Labor’s inner turmoil in the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years.

There are personalities involved today that saw that and didn’t learn from it.

He said the Liberals were within striking distance of Labor in the polls. They were in a better position than Howard had been. And yet, he acknowledges the spill has done tremendous damage.

This is the crazy world of Canberra. There was no one who had stopped and thought.

Updated

Bishop hits the phones

Guardian Australia understands that Julie Bishop has now rung more than a dozen MPs canvassing support.

Josh Frydenberg and Steve Ciobo are still in the field as potential deputies, we’re told.

The current assessment from moderate Liberals is that Scott Morrison, the other horse in the race, is faring better than Bishop in their current count. That does not rule Bishop out of the race, by any stretch.

Moderates are also saying there’s a real question of whether the party room meeting will, in fact, happen tomorrow. You’ll remember that Turnbull has tentatively scheduled the meeting for midday tomorrow, but only on the proviso that he receives a petition with the signatures of a majority of his party.

We’ll wait and see how it all develops tomorrow.

Peter Dutton as prime minister would be less preferred as PM than the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, a second poll released today shows.

While the two-party preferred polls have put Labor in the ascendency for almost two years, the albatross around the opposition leader’s neck has been his stubborn unpopularity compared with the man about to lose the prime ministership, Malcolm Turnbull.

Dutton as prime minister would reverse that: Shorten would be more popular in every state, and across all age groups, except those over 65, who narrowly favour Dutton, Roy Morgan snap polling from Wednesday shows.

Part of the rationale behind the Dutton for PM putsch was as an attempt to buttress the swing seats in Queensland – in danger after a disastrous showing in the Longman byelection.

The Liberal MP Scott Buchholz, who holds the safe Queensland seat of Wright, told Guardian Australia that Dutton is popular in his community, which is “ground zero for One Nation” because his record allowed the Coalition to argue they had “stopped the boats”.

But polling suggests the conventional wisdom that Dutton “saves the furniture” in Queensland is wrong: he is not more popular in his home state.

And the numbers confirm that south of the Tweed river – where most Australians live – the hopeful new prime minister has a significant problem.

Both Victoria and NSW have state elections within the next year – Victoria in November and NSW next March – and the ascension of a hardline right leader is being seen

Allied to that, in the context of a looming federal election – which could be sparked immediately by resignations from a parliament where the government holds just a one-seat majority – Dutton is viewed by many as a liability.

The poll compared Labor leader Bill Shorten with Dutton and showed Shorten ahead in every state.

  • The gap is closest in Tasmania, where Shorten’s lead is 53% to 47%.
  • In Victoria, Shorten’s home state, the lead is massive: 64.5% to 31.5%, a lead of 33%.
  • Even in Dutton’s home state of Queensland, the margin is still sizeable: 53% to 40% - a gap of 13%.

Updated

The Senate wrapped up a short while ago. Safe to say the senators will be glad to be out of this place.

It’s very quiet in parliament. We haven’t heard any more on that ever elusive petition. But we’ll bring it to you as soon as we possibly can.

A bit of vision of that speech from Liberal senator Linda Reynolds earlier. She spoke of bullying and intimidation, and her disillusionment, while pleading for politicians to find a better way of working.

'Nastier', 'stupider', 'dysfunctional': resigning Greens senator lambasts parliament

The Greens senator Andrew Bartlett, once a senator for the Australian Democrats, is resigning and speaking in the Senate.

A pretty depressing day for him to leave. He gives us a view of how the parliament has changed during his more than 20-year career.

Everyone who works here says there’s a problem with the current state of parliament, he says.

They all say things have gotten worse. They use a variety of different words. But they all say roughly the same thing. This place is nastier, it’s stupider, it’s more dysfunctional. It’s less effective at doing the job that we are all meant to be here doing. That we all get paid and overpaid to do. We are here to represent and work with the community to work in a way that ensures we are a united, caring society.

As so many people have noted over the course of this, over that whole period of time since 2008 we’ve seen nothing but instability delivered through our political system.

Bartlett says there will be no “third coming” for him in the Senate. If he does come back, he will sit in the lower house and seeks to win the seat of Brisbane from the Liberals.

Bartlett returned to the Senate in November as a replacement for Larissa Waters.

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Andrew Bartlett enters the chamber to take the oath of office in November. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

Malcolm Turnbull set a pretty huge hurdle in Peter Dutton’s way earlier today when - in addition to seeking advice from the solicitor general - he suggested that he would have to persuade the governor general he is eligible to sit in parliament before he could become prime minister.

What does the governor general think about being asked to police the eligibility of a prime ministerial aspirant by the sitting prime minister?

A spokesman gave a short response:

The governor general, by convention, acts on the advice of the prime minister and government on such matters ... questions relating to political events are best directed to the government.

It’s an ambiguous and unilluminating response. Perhaps Turnbull could warn Peter Cosgrove off giving Dutton the gig – but the governor general has given no hint how he would exercise an independent judgment on prime minister designate Dutton, if it comes to that tomorrow.

Updated

I’ve been speaking to a few Liberal MPs to try and gauge how seriously they take the constitutional issue with Peter Dutton that Malcolm Turnbull elevated at his press conference earlier by calling for the solicitor general’s advice before the party room meeting.

Dutton supporters see the move as sheer bastardry. “Desperation, totally inaccurate and not a good reflection on the prime minister,” one MP told me.

That MP suggested it was “outrageous” to involve the solicitor general and MPs would ignore the advice.

Perhaps that’s what you’d expect from a Dutton supporter – but my read on it is swing voters are less angry but don’t regard it as a critical issue either. One said the constitutional issue is “beyond their remit” and they will “take no notice of it” because it’s beyond their control.

This parliamentarian – who voted for Turnbull in the first ballot – sounds thoroughly depressed with the whole episode:

I had no great love for Tony Abbott but I voted for him [in September 2015] because throwing out a sitting prime minister never works. It’s the same with Malcolm Turnbull – it doesn’t matter whether you love him or hate him, change is not going to help us.

Asked how the “madness” had taken hold in the Liberal party, the parliamentarian suggested colleagues’ “ego” and “ambition” was to blame. “It’s all about themselves.”

One factor that could swing votes more than constitutional issues: avoiding an early election. But the one person who canvassed this MP’s vote said it was “not his intention to go to an early election unless resignations and byelections force the issue”. (I suspect this was Dutton’s pitch FYI).

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Peter Dutton during a division where the opposition tried to have the member for Dickson referred to the high court for a breach of section 44 of the constitution this morning. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

Barnaby Joyce spoke to ABC radio a little earlier. He hit out at Turnbull’s decision not to stay on in parliament, should he lose the leadership. He said he does not agree with knifing a sitting prime minister.

I don’t agree with this process. A lot of people out there are dismayed with the chaos this inflicts on the parliament.

Hand in glove with that, if that is the case, the only way you can make this worse, is if you decide with a one-seat majority you are not going to represent the party you led.

Updated

There’s a bit of a lull in parliament at the moment.

A lot of the MPs have left the building. The Senate is still sitting on. So, what to do in the quiet? Well, you could listen to Alan Jones on Sky News. Or you can watch the excellent video at the top of the blog we’ve just published taking you through the twists and turns of the last three days. Tough choice, I know.

Updated

Bishop on the march

I still don’t have primary confirmation that Julie Bishop is in the field, but government MPs are telling me she is now campaigning flat-out.

Some predict she will pick up support from Victorian Liberals, because Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison are both bad news in the most progressive state in Australia. Bishop appearing has caused complications for moderates who were in the process of swinging behind Scott Morrison.

Some moderates think if she finishes ahead of Morrison in the ballot, swinging votes will swing behind Dutton, giving him victory.

You could not script this, seriously.

The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, with the foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop
The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, with the foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

Australia is a strange, strange place sometimes.

You may have missed this amid the chaos, but the Senate voted to hold an inquiry into the Peter Dutton au pair mystery. It promises to be very interesting. Lisa Martin prepared this report for Guardian Australia. She’s been excellent on this story. Martin writes:

The Senate has voted to investigate the circumstances surrounding Peter Dutton’s decision to use ministerial intervention powers to save two foreign au pairs from deportation.

The visa status of the two unknown young women has been in the public spotlight since March, when it was revealed the former home affairs minister granted them visas on public interest grounds in 2015.

Dutton stood aside as minister on Tuesday after challenging prime minister Malcolm Turnbull for the leadership of the Liberal party. His backers circulated a petition late on Wednesday in an attempt to trigger a second leadership spill.

Labor senator Louise Pratt, who chairs the Senate legal and constitutional affairs references committee, moved a motion for a snap inquiry into “allegations concerning the inappropriate exercise of ministerial powers with respect to the visa status of au pairs”.

Updated

A great take of today’s events from David Rowe, the Australian Financial Review’s cartoonist.

Updated

What do you do when your minister resigns? Edit Wikipedia entries about fish, I suppose?

Positioning at 20 paces

There has been some speculation among MPs about what Josh Frydenberg might do in any ballot tomorrow.

Some are claiming he’s now in the Dutton column, but I don’t think that’s right. What I think is entirely possible is Frydenberg will nominate for the deputy’s job regardless of who wins tomorrow’s ballot. He’s being urged to put his hand up.

The energy and environment minister, Josh Frydenberg, in the press gallery of Parliament House in Canberra
The energy and environment minister, Josh Frydenberg, in the press gallery of Parliament House in Canberra. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

It’s 5.30pm here in Canberra. Many of you are heading home and wondering where this all goes next. Luckily, my dear colleague Gareth Hutchens is back from prowling the ministerial wing of parliament house and has written up this great explainer.

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The Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull at a press conference in the PM’s courtyard this afternoon. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Petition is nearing necessary numbers: Andrews

An update on the petition for the party room meeting. The Liberal MP Karen Andrews spoke to reporters outside parliament earlier.

She said she understands that only “one more signature is required”. She signed the petition, basically out of frustration with the current mess, but warns that does not mean she will automatically back Peter Dutton.

But I will not stand by after having parliament adjourned today to have this matter not concluded tomorrow. I understand that only one more signature is required.

Updated

The former Labor prime minister Julia Gillard has warned Australia may be headed for an election focused on race and law and order. She was speaking in Melbourne and my colleague Luke Henriques-Gomes was there.

“I think we could be heading for a federal election that would be quite ugly around questions of race,” Gillard said. “There’s been no secret that there will be campaigning on law and order questions, putting to the forefront people’s race and ethnicity rather than the crime.

“I think it’s sort of incumbent on all of us when emotions get worked up around those things to be voices of reason, pointing methodically to the evidence rather than getting swept up in it. That in some ways sounds passionless … but over time I believe reason tells.”

Updated

Leadership spill marred by bullying, intimidation: Reynolds

The Liberal senator Linda Reynolds has given an impassioned speech in the Senate about the behaviour of people on her own side destabilising the leadership.

Reynolds said:

Yesterday here in this place I said that I was deeply saddened and distressed by what was happening over the last 24 hours and now 48 hours in my own party. And I’ve got to say what’s happened since yesterday – I’m even more greatly distressed and disturbed by what has been happening ... In fact some of the behaviour is behaviour I simply do not recognise, and I think has no place in my party or this chamber.

So whatever happens over the next 24 hours, I cannot condone and I cannot support what has happened to some of my colleagues on this side, in this chamber, in this place. The tragedy of what has been happening, the madness of what has taken hold of a number of my colleagues is this has been a very good government, and a government is always more than a leader, and the leader is only ever the sum of those he or she serves with.

She continues:

I just hope, as I said, whatever happens tomorrow that the behaviours that we have seen and the bullying and intimidation that I do not recognise as Liberal in any shape, way or form, is brought to account. And we can find a better way, all of us in this chamber, to deal with each other. And most importantly, to represent the people of Australia, because that is what we are here to do. We are not here to squabble with each other. We are here to serve the people of Australia. And I feel ashamed that we are letting our nation down. Thank you.

Senator Linda Reynolds
Senator Linda Reynolds. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

Australian stock market closes down 0.34%

The ASX200 has closed down 0.34% for the day to finish at 6,244 points. Although banking and utilities stocks led the way down, it’s not clear how much of the fall can be laid at the door of the Canberra carnage. The energy sector, which you might expect to suffer most from the political uncertainty, was up 0.8% helped by higher oil prices.

The drop in the Aussie dollar was more clearly linked to what our political editor Katharine Murphy calls a “complete shambles”.

The currency has lost 0.75% today to sit at US72.9c at the moment. But as I said earlier, that’s still higher than it was on Friday and it has been trending lower for the past six months.

The Australian dollar over the past six months.
The Australian dollar over the past six months. Photograph: Yahoo Finance

Updated

For a bit of much-needed levity, have a look at this piece from Guardian Australia reporter Naaman Zhou on the poor buggers all over the world who share the name Peter Dutton. They’re all taking it with good humour. Good on them. Should we give them a run in government? A cabinet full of foreign Peter Duttons. Can’t be worse than the current bunch. And by the time we fly them over, the prime minister’s liable to have changed a few times anyway.

We heard fiery speeches from both Labor’s Penny Wong and the Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, in the Senate earlier, as they backed a no-confidence motion against the government.

They’re both worth a watch.

Updated

Have a look at the time stamps on these tweets, and you’ll get an idea of the frenetic pace in this place right now. A claim is made that Tony Abbott is going to run for PM at 4.02pm. By 4.04pm, it is dismissed.

And further evidence:

Updated

Situation report from Guardian Australia's political editor

The first thing to say is this thing is a complete shambles. Like nothing I’ve ever seen. It’s chaos, and people are playing the echo chamber.

Scott Morrison is running, and canvassing. Ben Morton is doing his numbers. People are canvassing for Julie Bishop. I know many outlets are already running that she’s a certainty, but I have not had confirmation from her that she is running. Some moderates are sceptical that she is, because she agreed (according to a couple of sources) to be Morrison’s deputy in a meeting this morning. So that’s a bit of a wildcard. But she certainly has supporters in the party room.

I’m told efforts by the Dutton camp to collect signatures have stalled. Mathias Cormann has been canvassing on Dutton’s behalf, ringing around MPs – but people are refusing to sign what some are terming a suicide note.

The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, and the treasurer, Scott Morrison, during a division this morning
The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, and the treasurer, Scott Morrison, during a division this morning. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

That’s an interesting point from my colleague Paul Karp, just now. Dutton’s camp have reportedly pulled the petition from circulation for the time being, in the hope that Marino would unilaterally call the meeting. She is saying no, she will not do that.

Whip will not call for crucial party room meeting

Chief government whip Nola Marino’s office has just advised me that she will not be asking for a Liberal party room meeting.

So the Dutton camp’s argument that there’s no technical requirement for a 43-signature petition for the whip to call a meeting seems to be a moot point. Marino won’t call a meeting, Malcolm Turnbull has laid out his conditions: he wants to see the signatures.

Updated

Terrible look. The federal government has cancelled a meeting of state ministers for women to discuss women’s safety.

Natalie Hutchins, a Victorian minister, has just posted on Facebook slamming federal minister Kelly O’Dwyer for the decision.

Updated

Spill petition is a 'suicide note': Wilson

The Liberal MP Tim Wilson has described the petition for a second party room meeting, circulated by the Dutton camp, as a “suicide note” for the party.

Updated

No-confidence motion fails in the Senate

That motion of no-confidence has failed in the Senate. The government avoids embarrassment. It went down 31-35. Labor and the Greens voted for it, but the rest of the crossbench largely sided with the government.

Crisis grips Turnbull government, amid farce and strategic manoeuvring

Let’s recap on what’s been a truly momentous day in Australian politics. A lot’s happened in the past eight hours, and you’d be forgiven for feeling dizzy.

What’s new:

  • the Australian prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, is on the precipice. Conservative forces have continued to gather for a second tilt at the leadership, backing former home affairs minister, Peter Dutton. Dutton spoke with the prime minister this morning, demanding a second party room meeting. Turnbull denied him that opportunity.
  • Turnbull was dealt a fatal blow when senior frontbenchers Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash and Mitch Fifield resigned, saying the party had lost confidence in the PM. That precipitated a string of additional frontbench resignations.
  • At the death, Turnbull showed some fight and tactical cunning in the early afternoon. He demanded the party present him with a petition signed by a majority of Liberal members (43 members), before he would call a party room meeting. At the same time, he effectively left a time bomb for Dutton by saying he would leave parliament if he was turfed as prime minister. That would trigger a byelection and expose Dutton to the risk of losing his slender one-seat majority in the lower house and forcing him to an early election. The Coalition, on current numbers, would be destroyed at the polls.
  • Turnbull also raised further questions about Dutton’s eligibility for parliament. There are serious question marks over Dutton because childcare companies he owns received subsidies from the Commonwealth, a potential breach of the constitution. Turnbull said legal advice on the case from the solicitor general should be given to party members before they vote on the leadership. This helps to create uncertainty among those on the fence.
  • For his part, Dutton insists he has the numbers to topple Turnbull.
  • A party room meeting has been pencilled in for midday tomorrow, but it will only take place if Turnbull sees the petition. The added time helps to garner support for another candidate. Scott Morrison and Julie Bishop have been floated as potential candidates.
  • Turnbull said if the party voted for a spill, he would take it as a loss of confidence in his leadership. In such an event, he would not stand.
  • the chaos forced the government to abandon proceedings in the lower house today, an extraordinary step that was met with scorn and derision from just about everyone.
  • Dutton narrowly survived a push by the opposition that would have seen him referred to the high court, which would then have decided whether he was eligible for parliament or not. Dutton survived by one vote. Only the parliament has the power to refer MPs to the high court.
  • a motion of no confidence was moved against the government in the Senate. It prompted fiery speeches from Labor, the Greens, and the crossbench, who all slammed the Coalition’s inability to run a functioning government.
  • the motion followed farcical scenes in the upper house, caused by the huge number of frontbench resignations, which left the government unsure of how many ministers it had, what their responsibilities were, and who should answer questions.
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Greens leader Richard Di Natale during question time in the senate this afternoon, where he delivered a fiery speech attacking the government for its internal turmoil. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

The crossbench senator Derryn Hinch remembers the good old days, when we were, you know, a stable democracy. I’m still a sprightly 30, so I must confess that I have no idea what he’s talking about.

Hinch says:

I am old enough in this place to remember the days when we used to all laugh at the Italians. We said ‘how often they change their governments, how often they changed their leaders, what a stupid country that was and how irresponsible. What a lousy case of democracy.’

And now we will have tomorrow, it seems, an elected prime minister will not make it to his full term. A prime minister ... who was elected by the people and should serve his or her full term in government. And I am sorry it will not happen.

Updated

The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, has just delivered a powerful excoriation of the Coalition’s navel-gazing and internal turmoil. It’s sobering.

It’s a disgrace. It’s utterly shameful. We haven’t had a stable government in this country for a decade now. I’ve got a 10-year-old boy, he’s seen half a dozen different prime ministers. We have politicians in this joint who are more concerned about themselves, about their own self-interest, than they are with governing the country. Just think, while the Liberal party has been tearing themselves apart. We’ve got 100% of NSW that’s in drought right now, we’ve got the Great Barrier Reef on the brink of collapse, we’ve got floods in India. We’ve got a 12-year-old girl who is setting herself alight in Nauru. We’ve got kids who are in a catatonic state because they’ve given up hope, locked away in those offshore hell-holes. What’s the Liberal party doing? Focusing on vengeance. On payback.

There are 100,000 people in this country who are homeless. There are women who fear going home tonight, because one woman a week is killed at the hands of a violent partner. And what have we got? We’ve got this spectacle. This disgrace.

He screams at the Coalition benches.

You should be ashamed of yourselves. We have people across the country who are suffering, and look what you are doing. You are so focused on yourselves that you have forgotten what the country elected you to do, and that is to govern for them, not for you. Not for you. You don’t deserve to govern. You deserve to be turfed out. That’s what you deserve.

Updated

Channel Seven is reporting that Julie Bishop, the foreign affairs minister, is standing for the leadership. Just a reminder that, in this chaotic environment, claims and counter-claims are flying thick and fast. Not to say they’re not true, but we need to treat them with care. We’re working to confirm the report and will tell you if and when we do.

Updated

Simon Birmingham is continuing to defend the government’s achievements. Same-sex marriage, budget balance, lower taxes and the reintroduction of the ABCC are listed as among those. Birmingham said the choice between Labor and the Coalition is clear.

People will not, in the end, risk their jobs, their wages, their homes, their retirement savings, the potential for lower electricity bills, on that mob opposite.

Simon Birmingham leads the government in the upper house after the resignation of Mathias Cormann during question time in the Senate
Simon Birmingham leads the government in the upper house after the resignation of Mathias Cormann during question time in the Senate. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

The Centre Alliance crossbencher Rebekha Sharkie, who sits in the lower house, is using her afternoon of free time to watch the Senate in question time. She looks about as impressed as the rest of us.

pic

Updated

Simon Birmingham, the government’s current leader in the Senate, is doing his best to parry the attack. He says it’s all about policies and outcomes. Worth noting the Coalition dumped their two signature policies this week – the corporate tax rate cut and the core of the national energy guarantee. Oh and they stopped trying to repeal the energy supplement, which they’ve been trying to do since 2015, from memory.

Birmingham says:

What matters most to the people of Australia are policies and outcomes.

Policies and outcomes. And this government, this Liberal National party government, has delivered good policies and strong outcomes in spades. We, as the government, stand proud of our strong record of achievement, a strong record of achievement, and we will continue to deliver on behalf of Australian families, on behalf of Australian households, on behalf of Australian businesses.

Updated

Penny Wong continues to turn the screws.

I do want to make this point about what we have seen this week, and it has been an extraordinary spectacle, it has been an extraordinary spectacle of disunity, of division, of personal hatred, of enmity and ill discipline. It has been all of those things. But the most telling aspect of what we have seen on offer this week is this. When you ask the question who matters to the Liberal Party, you get one answer. Themselves.

'We have a rabble': Wong moves no-confidence motion in Senate

Labor’s Penny Wong is moving a no-confidence motion against the government in the Senate.

The motion also calls on Malcolm Turnbull to take Australia to the polls by visiting the governor general by 5pm.

It is very clear from question time today that Australia does not have a functioning government. Australia does not have a functioning government.

We have a rabble. A rabble of self-important people masquerading as the representatives of Australia.

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I don’t want to look at that car crash of a Senate anymore. So here’s a few pictures from the heroic Mike Bowers of that gob-smacking press conference earlier. Turnbull, with his back against the wall, shows some fight.

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Pure farce.

This is where we’re currently at in the 45th parliament. Senator Malarndirri McCarthy asks:

How many ministers currently serve in the Liberal National government? Who are they? And what are their portfolios?

I honestly don’t think anyone knows.

The uproar from Labor is deafening in there. Each time Birmingham tries to talk about the government’s performance, he is drowned out. The Senate president, Scott Ryan, is trying to wrest control.

Order on my left. Order on my left. If I call order, take a breath and count to three before the interjections continue.

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Question time kicks off in the Senate. This is embarrassing. Birmingham is listing the various portfolios that he, Scullion and Payne will take questions on. The lists are ludicrously long.

Labor laugh and yell from the opposition benches as Birmingham works his way through the portfolios.

Updated

The chaos continues over in the Senate. Senators were preparing to debate a bill on regional broadband. But the government appeared to have no idea who the relevant minister was. Instead of the name of its speaker, the Coalition simply wrote “minister”. Quality, stable government there.

You’ll remember that the former communications minister Mitch Fifield resigned earlier today.

We know now that Simon Birmingham will be the government’s leader in the Senate. Birmingham, Nigel Scullion and Marise Payne will take most of the questions on behalf of that slew of resigned frontbenchers we mentioned earlier.

Brace for full impact, guys. It’s going to be a heavy landing.

Updated

We’re all the crossbenchers today.

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Turnbull’s appearance lifted the Aussie dollar slightly from a low of US 72.85c but it has since been bumping along at US72.9c.

The ASX200, meanwhile, is off a little bit more than earlier at 6,250 points, a drop of 0.25% today.

Updated

Andrew Bolt, the late night Sky News commentator and keen promoter of the Anyone-But-Turnbull camp, had just had a hernia live on air.

He’s furious Turnbull is fighting back.

Firstly, he’s angry that Turnbull is demanding to see a petition with 43 names before he convenes a special party-room meeting tomorrow.

“He made up that rule. There is no such rule. Absolutely none,” Bolt says.

Secondly, he’s angry that Turnbull has asked the solicitor general to consider whether Peter Dutton is eligible to sit in parliament.

“Again, this is him trying to kill off Peter Dutton’s challenge. The only way that Peter Dutton goes to the high court is if there parliament refers him.”

Thirdly, he doesn’t like that Turnbull’s digging his heels so that Scott Morrison gets time to challenge Dutton properly with serious numbers.

“Malcolm Turnbull, the most leftwing leader of the Liberal party for, I don’t know when, is trying to stop the Liberal party from returning to its roots.

“It’s an utterly, utterly selfish and narcissistic move. His leadership is completely destroyed and he doesn’t care. He is staying on for as long as he can until he can nominate his preferred successor.

“I think it is a disaster. I have never seen such a selfish, damaging, suicidal kind of move from a man who’s only focus since the day he become prime minister was on himself.”

Bolt then reminded viewers that he wasn’t a member of the Liberal party.

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The time could prove crucial. It does two things:

  • it gives Scott Morrison more time to build support for a tilt at the leadership
  • it gives more time for concerns about Dutton’s eligibility to foment within the Coalition, including by allowing the solicitor general to deliver his advice before tomorrow’s party room meeting.

Oh, and it also gives Labor more time to do stuff like this:

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Let’s put some context around what we’ve just learned. It’s shocking, really.

Malcolm Turnbull has effectively just booby-trapped the prime minister’s office for Dutton. Turnbull has shown some fight. “I’ve never given in to bullies,” he says.

And indeed he is not.

Here’s why: Turnbull has suggested he will walk from parliament if he loses the leadership.

That would trigger a byelection. A byelection could rob Peter Dutton of the ability to command a majority in parliament.

At the same time, he’s put serious doubt on Dutton’s ability to lead a stable government or sit as an eligible parliamentarian.

Truly remarkable.

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So, Turnbull is seeking to buy time. He is asking for the party room meeting to take place tomorrow, at midday.

The press conference was also used to highlight the serious doubts over Dutton’s eligibility. He wants the party to see the solicitor general’s legal advice before the spill.

This issue of eligibility is critically important. You can imagine the consequences of having a prime minister whose actions and decisions are questionable because of the issue of eligibility.

Updated

Our political editor, Katharine Murphy, asks Turnbull who he means when he describes the bullies within the party.

He won’t name names. But he says the party is being dragged to the right. He also says the challenge began with a minority, and was built up through bullying and intimidation.

Again, I’m not going to go into names or anything remotely approaching recrimination or anything of that kind. I mean, politics is a tough business. You have got to judge the political actions by their outcomes.

I think what we’re witnessing, what we have witnessed at the moment is a very deliberate effort to pull the Liberal party further to the right. And that is a, that’s been stated by the number of people who have been involved in this.

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Turnbull suggests he would leave parliament

Turnbull suggests he will leave parliament, should he lose the leadership.

I made it very clear that I believe former prime ministers are best out of the Parliament

Turnbull is laying this entire leadership crisis at the feet of a “minority” within the party. He likens it to “a form of madness”. How did we get to this point, he asks.

The reality is that a minority in the party room supported by others outside the Parliament have sought to bully, intimidate others into making this change of leadership that they’re seeking. It’s been described by many people, including those who feel they cannot resist it as a form of madness, and it is remarkable we’re at this point where only a month ago we were being, as you all know being avid readers of polls, just little bit behind Labor and in our own polls a little bit ahead, but in any view thoroughly competitive.

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Turnbull will not stand in spill

Turnbull says if a leadership spill is called, he will not stand.

In terms of my own intentions, when the party room meeting is called, I will invite a spill motion to be moved. If the motion is carried, I will treat that as a vote of no confidence and I will not stand as a candidate in the ballot.

Show me the letter, Turnbull demands

Malcolm Turnbull materialises. He looks worse for wear. But he is still seeking to prolong his leadership. He says he is still waiting to see the petition calling for a party room meeting with a majority of the party’s signatures on it.

The party room, of course, met on Tuesday and confirmed my leadership by a majority. So we need to see that there is a majority of members and they need to put their names to it too. These are momentous times and it’s important that people are accountable for what they’re doing.

He concedes Australians will be horrified to see what is happening in their parliament.

Now, Australians will be rightly appalled by what they’re witnessing in their nation’s Parliament today and in the course of this week.

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There’s still another five minutes until we hear from Turnbull.

That gives us some time to delve into Peter Dutton’s history. Who is the man likely to be our next prime minister? How did he rise through the ranks of the Liberal party? What are his views on migration? Has he smiled before Tuesday? Is he even eligible for parliament? And what on earth is going on with those au pairs?

This video will answer all of your questions. And there’s gaffes!!

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Peta Credlin, Tony Abbott’s former chief of staff, is giving Sky News her interpretation of Malcolm Turnbull’s failings.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, she says Turnbull should never have left Abbott out of cabinet.

Meanwhile, spare a thought for Peter Dutton. No, not that Dutton. The other Dutton. This bloke:

Turnbull to speak

Malcolm Turnbull will speak in 20 minutes time.

We’ll learn, we expect, whether he will contest this leadership ballot.

Mike Bowers doing wonderful work, as always

This scene is one of many that will be remembered on - it must be said - a sorry day in Australian politics.

The Senate is still sitting, don’t forget. But the government front bench is now so sparse we’re all wondering what on earth is going to happen. Four ministers and two assistant ministers who sit in the Senate have resigned. But they still have to front up for Senate question time at 2pm.

Labor sources think the only ministers left to answer questions are Simon Birmingham, Marise Payne, Bridget McKenzie and Nigel Scullion.

Scullion, the Indigenous affairs minister, might even end up as the government’s leader in the Senate.

Oh, and this:

Updated

Our video producer, Becca Leaver, has put together this fantastic history of the (mostly recent) obsession our governments seem to have with tearing themselves apart. Have a watch.

Updated

Scott Morrison, Christopher Pyne and Nola Marino have just left the prime minister’s office, our reporter Gareth Hutchens tells us.

Important movements ahead of the party room showdown. Morrison is being positioned as a challenger. Pyne is key in the Turnbull camp. Marino is the chief government whip, and is responsible for planning the meeting.

Aussie dollar dips on leadership uncertainty

The dollar has wobbled a bit thanks to the shenanigans in Canberra. It has been holding fairly steady at US73c but dipped below that mark today to sit at US72.9c.

This tweeted chart from CommSec makes it look quite dramatic but it is worth noting that it is higher today than it was last Friday (US72.6c), despite four days of Canberra carnage.

It’s a similar story on the local stock market where it’s probably fair to say that investors are more concerned about what happens to the government in the White House.

The benchmark ASX200 is down slightly – 0.2%.

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I have no evidence that Malcolm Turnbull has vacated the contest yet.

We can only know these things minute by minute, but I just want to put this out there: I have no evidence as of this moment that the prime minister has given way for either of the challengers – Dutton obviously and, putatively, Morrison.

The impression I get from moderates is Turnbull is still on the grid. I have not confirmed that Morrison is a definite starter. I know others have, but I haven’t. The treasurer clearly wants to run but as of this moment (and I stress that is all that can be known) – things are still fluid.

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The resignations: a summary

It’s been a whirlwind couple of days. Just to recap, these are the ministers we know have resigned so far.

  • finance minister, Mathias Cormann
  • trade minister, Steve Ciobo
  • health minister, Greg Hunt
  • jobs minister, Michaelia Cash
  • law enforcement minister, Angus Taylor
  • communications minister, Mitch Fifield
  • multicultural affairs minister, Alan Tudge
  • human services minister, Michael Keenan
  • assistant science minister, Zed Seselja
  • assistant treasurer, Michael Sukkar
  • assistant minister to the prime minister, James McGrath
  • international development minister, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells
  • home affairs minister, Peter Dutton

The telling blow for Turnbull was, of course, the loss of Cormann, Cash, and Fifield, all at once. Cormann in particular takes significant numbers with him. Once those three abandoned Turnbull, they set off a chain reaction. We watched more junior ministers (Ciobo, Taylor, Tudge, Keenan) resign quite quickly afterwards.

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Updated

Greens staffer Tim Beshara has pointed out that adjourning parliament is not unprecedented:

In March 2013 parliament was also adjourned when Simon Crean forced Julia Gillard to call a spill, where she was unanimously re-elected. However, the house was adjourned at 4:19pm, after Question Time so it looks like there was considerably less fuss about it because proceedings had basically finished anyway before an adjournment debate scheduled for 4:30pm.

Christopher Pyne, the manager of opposition business at the time, was quite magnanimous about it:

Mr Deputy Speaker Scott, due to the unusual circumstances of today the opposition has offered to not proceed with the adjournment debate at half past four to allow the House to adjourn so the Labor party can either choose a new leader or reaffirm their support of Prime Minister Gillard. It is a generous act by the opposition but we understand the terrible circumstances the government faces and we wish to facilitate an opportunity for them to vote on a new leader.

Updated

House votes to adjourn

There you have it. The house has voted to adjourn. Parliament is done for another two weeks, at least.

They’ve won 70-68.

We only just crept past midday.

The house will now be adjourned until 10 September. Labor are yelling abuse at the government.

One Nationals MP has confirmed they’ll vote with the Liberals to adjourn parliament.

“Give the Libs time to go and sort their shit out,” the MP said.

Updated

While we wait for this vote, let’s think about the likely candidates in the ballot. Sky News is continuing to report that Scott Morrison will put his hand up. So Morrison versus Dutton.

There was suggestion that Kelly O’Dwyer, a moderate, would run as Morrison’s deputy.

Our political editor Katharine Murphy has confirmed that O’Dwyer will not run as deputy.

Updated

Our reporter Gareth Hutchens has just watched Julie Bishop, Scott Morrison, and Malcolm Turnbull walk to the house for the vote.

Updated

Plibersek challenges the government to call an election.

We are witnessing history being made today, because this house divided cannot stand, and given that we know that this house divided cannot stand, the only solution, the only solution, is for whoever the prime minister is right now to drive out to the governor-general and to let the people of Australia decide. Let the people of Australia decide whether they want a government focused only on itself

Christopher Pyne gets to his feet, looking resigned, and moves the motion to adjourn parliament regardless. A division is required.

Updated

Labor are lining up now. Labor’s deputy, Tanya Plibersek, is next.

The proposition that we would close down the parliament of Australia because they can’t organise themselves to work out who the prime minister is going to be – it’s a shock to the people of Australia, who deserve so much better.

She takes aim at the Nationals, who appear to be working out what they’re going to do. Plibersek challenges them to keep parliament going.

What are you going to do? Are you going to support the suspension of the parliament? Or do you support democracy? Do you support this parliament doing its job? Governing for all Australians?

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'Australia no longer has a functioning government': Shorten

Bill Shorten steps up to the plate.

We see a government and a Liberal party who know they need to focus on the needs of the people, but they just cannot help themselves.

He describes the government is “cannibalistic”.

I said on Tuesday that this is a government which had lost the will to live. But I don’t even think on Tuesday we could have seen the cannibalistic behaviour of a government who is eating itself alive. There is no doubt in my mind that the people of Australia think that the system is broken

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This is a significant development. It means we’ll see no question time. The government is seeking to give itself time to resolve the chaos engulfing its leadership. Tony Burke continues:

For those opposite, have a think about what you have all become. Have a think about it. Have a think where you might have thought ‘if I came to parliament I would achieve x y or z’. Because now those opposite are about to vote that they would rather not have a parliament at all.

Coalition shut down parliament for day, Labor pounces

The Coalition is moving to adjourn parliament for the day. What a mess.

The manager of opposition business, Tony Burke, seizes on the news.

What is happening right now is that the government has decided that this place has fallen apart so completely that they are dissolving the parliament for the day, entirely. There will be no question time today because they don’t know who their ministers are, there will be no question time today because they don’t know who their prime minister is.”

He says no government in living memory has done this.

No government has decided ‘this is too hard, let’s go home’

Updated

Peter Dutton did not have a great record as health minister, you may remember. Doctors voted him the worst health minister in 35 years.

Some doctors remember. Former Australian Medical Association vice-president, Stephen Parnis, said he shudders at the “consequences for the vulnerable in our community” if Dutton takes power.

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It’s a lonely time for Christopher Pyne, the key Turnbull backer. On Tuesday, ahead of Turnbull’s surprise ballot, he walked through parliament whistling and with a smile.

Now, this:

Trade minister resigns

Steve Ciobo, the trade minister, has resigned. He was the last of the group that entered Turnbull’s office earlier to resign.

Updated

Dutton deeply unpopular: poll

Peter Dutton would actively harm the Liberal Party’s vote if made leader, according to a ReachTel poll conducted on Wednesday night.

The poll of 2,430 voters found that 55.5% would be less likely to vote for the Liberals if Dutton becomes leader, compared with 22.9% who would be more likely and 21.5% who say it wouldn’t change their vote.

In fact, a majority in all age groups and sexes would be less likely to vote Liberal. Women in particular seem to dislike Dutton - 57% would be less likely to vote Liberal. Young people aged 18-34 are most opposed (57.6%).

Malcolm Turnbull is the preferred Liberal leader with 38%, followed by Julie Bishop (29%), Tony Abbott (14%), Peter Dutton is on just 10% and Scott Morrison on 8.6%. So that’s bad news for Dutton - he’s behind his fellow conservative Abbott and good news for Bishop, who appears the best compromise candidate.

Among Liberals, Turnbull’s lead as preferred leader is even higher - he has 55% support.

The poll was commissioned by the Construction Forestry Mining Maritime Energy Union - which Dutton has frequently caricatured as being a militant union propping up Bill Shorten’s leadership.

The poll finds Labor leading the Coalition 53% to 47%.

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Peter Dutton makes a brief statement to media in Parliament House Canberra this morning. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

Updated

The ship is well and truly sunk now.

More heavy hearts, more resignations

Michael Keenan, the human services minister, is the next to abandon Turnbull.

In the best interests of all Australians, it’s important that the leadership is now resolved.

The chief government whip, Nola Marino, has just left Turnbull’s office, our reporter Gareth Hutchens tells me.

It’s likely the pair were working out the details of the now inevitable party room meeting.

Alan Tudge resigns

Alan Tudge, the citizenship and multicultural affairs minister, has also tendered his resignation.

Another two frontbenchers abandon Turnbull

The demise continues. Health minister Greg Hunt and law enforcement minister Angus Taylor have both tendered their resignations. Turnbull is looking increasingly isolated. in that office.

Our reporter Gareth Hutchens tells me Taylor and Hunt have just left Turnbull’s office, alongside Steve Ciobo and Alan Tudge.

Nationals MP Darren Chester has played an important role in all this. He’s not ruled out moving to the cross-bench with other Nationals MPs, should Dutton take the leadership. He’s also not guaranteed Dutton supply and confidence. We checked, and that position has not changed today. Remember that the Coalition’s majority in the lower house is wafer-thin. He has a one-seat majority. Chester’s position would leave Dutton exposed to a no-confidence motion and an early election.

Chester has just tweeted his disgust at the current situation in parliament.

Updated

The turnstiles keep clicking at Turnbull’s office.

The latest movements:

  • key Turnbull backers, Christopher Pyne, Trent Zimmerman and Paul Fletcher, just entered
  • attorney-general Christian Porter just left

Gareth Hutchens, our man on the ground outside Turnbull’s office, says treasurer Scott Morrison has just left the PM’s office.

Updated

The elusive smile makes a return. I’ll wager it would have faded pretty darn quick had just one more vote gone against him in the house earlier.

More movement at Turnbull’s office.

Treasurer Scott Morrison, the attorney-general Christian Porter, and financial services minister Kelly O’Dwyer have all entered on their own.

Things are moving at a remarkable tempo now. Fun fact: I bought a coffee this morning at 8am, and I’ve just realised I’ve been too busy to drink it. Now it’s gone cold. I can assure you this is very unusual behaviour for someone with a debilitating caffeine addiction, and a sign of the current state of parliament.

More movement around the prime minister’s office.

Our reporter Gareth Hutchens has just watched a group of frontbenchers and Dutton backers walk in to Turnbull’s office. The group included:

  • Michael Keenan
  • Angus Taylor
  • Steve Ciobo
  • Alan Tudge

Those individuals previously offered to resign, but Turnbull refused to accept.

Sky News is reporting that the treasurer Scott Morrison will run as a surprise candidate in any leadership ballot. We’re confirming that report as we speak.

Our photographer Mike Bowers was down at that Mathias Cormann press conference. It’s a moment history will likely remember as key to Turnbull’s demise. Here are the pictures:

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Senate leader Mathias Cormann, employment minister Michaelia Cash and communications minister Mitch Fifield talk to the media. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian
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Updated

Our reporter Gareth Hutchens, tells us Malcolm Turnbull has just walked back into his office with Craig Laundy, one of his key supporters. Oh, to be a fly on that wall.

Dutton survives high court push by barest margin

Wow. That was incredibly tight.

The government hangs on by a single vote. One vote. Remarkable. It was 68-69.

Just to put that in context, the parliament almost decided to refer our likely next prime minister, Peter Dutton, to the nation’s highest court because he may not have been eligible to sit in parliament.

Updated

Lower house crossbenchers are voting with Labor. Andrew Wilkie, Adam Bandt, Rebekha Sharkie, and Cathy McGowan are all voting with the opposition.

This could be interesting.

Labor tries to have Dutton referred to high court

Labor are being rather sneaky in the lower house, too. They’re trying to refer Peter Dutton to the high court over his eligibility woes.

The Coalition is in disarray, and the numbers are tight.

A division is being called.

Here’s the text of the motion, moved by Tony Burke, the opposition’s manager of business.

I move –

That pursuant to section 376 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, the House of

Representatives refer the following questions to the Court of Disputed Returns:

1. whether, by reason of s44 of the Constitution, the place of the Member for Dickson (Mr Dutton) has become vacant;

2. if the answer to Question (1) is “yes”, by what means and in what manner that vacancy should be filled;

3. what directions and other orders, if any, the Court should make in order to hear and finally dispose of this reference; and

4. what, if any, orders should be made as to the costs of these proceedings.

Updated

Meanwhile, in the Senate, Labor almost used the confusion and chaos to kill off the Coalition’s plans to expand its controversial cashless welfare card expansion. The government’s leader in the Senate, Mathias Cormann, just resigned so there was effectively no one in charge.

Labor tested the government’s numbers on the floor of the upper house, and almost won. They tried to bring on an early vote on the bill, but lost the vote 31-33. Had they won, they could have had a second immediate vote to kill off the legislation.

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How is everyone? Still with me? In case you’re as confused I am, I’ve just checked, and yes, we are in Australia (a developed democratic nation), and yes, we are about to see, yet again, a sitting prime minister turfed without finishing a full term. I’ve also slapped myself a few times and we are not, in fact, in some never-ending political nightmare.

Let’s map out the next steps. You have to think with that dramatic intervention, the next step will be a party room meeting. Will Turnbull contest a ballot? Will a third, surprise leadership contender emerge? Or will Turnbull see the writing on the wall, and allow the leadership to transfer without contest?

Remember this? The mateship? The smiles? The embrace?

It was less than 24 hours ago. Politics, what a business.

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Cormann looked resigned and downcast during that press conference. He knew the enormity of what he was doing. It’s all over for Turnbull.

I’m sure you were all glued to a television screen, somewhere. But if not, here’s the vision.

A leadership spill, surely, is now inevitable. With that dramatic switch from Cormann, Cash and Fifield, Turnbull looks done.

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Updated

Cormann says none of the trio were part of any conspiracy against Turnbull. He says Turnbull will go down as a “great prime minister”.

The language is fatal for Turnbull. He’s done in the eyes of Cormann.

I believe that Malcolm Turnbull has been and is a great prime minister. I believe that he will go down in history as having secured amazing achievements for Australia. There’s no question that Malcolm Turnbull’s plan for the economy, for jobs in relation to our national security - that we all have been part of implementing - has left the country stronger and in a better position.

Updated

Cormann says he believes Dutton is the best man to take the Coalition to the election. But when asked whether the Coalition is now in a better position to win the election, he only offers this:

I will let Peter Dutton talk for himself. We have made that judgment. It is a matter for the party room.

Cormann is asked whether he thinks this is destroying the Liberals and is an embarrassment for the country. He responds:

I did not want to be in this position. I have loyally supported Malcolm Turnbull since he was elected leader of the Liberal Party. I was wanting to continue to support Malcolm Turnbull for years to come as leader of the Liberal Party. But I can’t ignore reality.

Cash and Fifield say they supported Turnbull in Tuesday’s ballot. They say that support has now been lost. Both say a party room meeting must now be called.

Fifield:

What needs to happen is this issue is resolved. We cannot allow this situation to continue. It does need to be resolved. These are difficult circumstances and what our focus is on - is to endeavour to achieve a resolution as quickly as possible.

Cash:

I became aware yesterday that it was very clear that the prime minister no longer, in my opinion, had the confidence of the party room. I too met with the prime minister yesterday afternoon and I advised him of this, and I urged him to call a party room meeting. My opinion in that regard has not changed overnight.

Updated

Cormann reveals he was taken utterly by surprise when Turnbull called a spill on Tuesday. He said he “did not want to be here”.

I did not want to be here in this position. I did not know that there was going to be a motion from the prime minister to declare the leadership positions vacant on Tuesday.

I, like others, was taken by surprise and I guess the reason we are here now is because that crystallised the views of the party room at that point, and in the context of a number of colleagues, including five cabinet ministers who supported Malcolm on Tuesday, indicating to me that they were of the view that there needed to be a change in the leadership of the Liberal party.

Updated

Cormann, Cash and Fifield have all tendered their resignations. Cormann:

We have had a further meeting with the Prime Minister this morning, all three of us, to confirm that we believe that there should be a party room meeting to resolve the issue of the leadership of the Liberal party, to provide certainty around the support for the leader of the parliamentary Liberal party and all of us tendered our resignation to the prime minister

Updated

Cormann abandons Turnbull

Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash, and Mitch Fifield have abandoned the prime minister.

This is crucial and could see the end of Turnbull.

Cormann:

It’s with great sadness and a heavy heart that we went to see the prime minister yesterday afternoon to advise him that in our judgment he no longer enjoyed the support of the majority of members in the Liberal party party room and that it was in the best interests of the Liberal party to help manage an orderly transition to a new leader.

Updated

This could be a critical press conference coming up from Cormann, Cash and Fifield. It’s listed for 9.35am. Don’t leave your seats.

They’re approaching the media pack now.

Updated

Kevin Andrews is appearing on Sky News. He’s a conservative and obviously deep in the Dutton camp.

Andrews is saying all that’s needed is two signatures on the petition to force a party room meeting.

The convention is quite clear. Yes I have signed a petition. I understand many of my colleagues have signed the petition, and therefore a party room meeting should be called.

That’s not Turnbull’s position. Andrews says:

It can certainly be delayed, but it can’t be denied.

And that trio – Cormann, Cash and Fifield – have just announced they will hold a press conference. The conference could be about the government’s decision to block Chinese communications company Huawei from the 5G network.

Very interesting, though, that they would choose this time to speak. It’s very short notice, and the three have just come from the PM’s office.

Stay tuned.

Updated

More movement outside Turnbull’s office. Guardian Australia reporter, Gareth Hutchens, says Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash, and Mitch Fifield have just walked out together. This is potentially important. Cormann is a crucial player in all of this. He’s a senior cabinet minister, currently loyal to Turnbull, but good friends with Dutton. If he switches sides, it will be a bitter blow for Turnbull.

Hutchens reports the trio “walked side by side, in the traditional ‘show of force’ stride”.

Updated

Chris Uhlmann, Nine’s political correspondent, has launched an extraordinary broadside against elements of News Corp and 2GB for their role in fomenting the current crisis. He says the Turnbull camp believes News Corp and 2GB are waging a war against the prime minister.

Uhlmann labels elements within those media companies as “bullies”.

Apparently, if you say that to them now, they get their knickers into a huge twist. Now if they want to be players in this game ... if they are making phone calls to people, trying to push people over the line, they are part of this story. All I’m saying is, if they want to dish it out, they should be prepared to take it. They are among the biggest bullies in the land, and it’s about time people called them out for what they are. And if they don’t like that, they can come after me.

Ouch.

Updated

There’s been a fair bit of movement in and around the prime minister’s office this morning. My colleague, Gareth Hutchens, is down near the ministerial wing, monitoring developments.

He’s just watched Julie Bishop and Scott Morrison leave a meeting in the PM’s office.

Martin Parkinson, the secretary of the department of prime minister and cabinet, has walked in a few minutes ago.

Updated

One window on the chaos

A conservative tells me there’s something of a Catch 22 in play right at the minute.

According to this account, several people who say they support Peter Dutton aren’t prepared to sign the petition.

They are telling number crunchers they will vote for him in a spill, but not commit their name to paper. My informant put the number of non-signees in the order of 15 MPs. If this is correct, and the dam doesn’t break over the course of the day, we are in a Mexican standoff.

A senior Turnbull backer insists there will be no meeting until there are 43 names on a petition, and no meeting with a challenger “under a constitutional cloud”.

Updated

Rudd says Dutton's apology boycott should bar him from prime ministership

Speaking of Kevin Rudd, he’s entered the current fracas to offer a warning.

I’m sure we all remember Dutton walking out as Rudd delivered his apology to the stolen generations. For that reason alone, Rudd says Dutton should never by prime minister.

A grown man, experienced politician who knew what he was doing - sending a dog-whistle to racist sentiment. A question of character. For this reason alone, he should never be Prime Minister

So, the crucial question. Where are we at with this petition? The numbers are still very, very unclear. It’s thought Dutton would need 43 signatures to overwhelm Turnbull and force him into a party room meeting, which would then force a second ballot for the leadership.

Is it a bluff? Well, Turnbull certainly thinks so. You’ll remember he’s already called for Dutton to put up or shut up. He’s saying “show me evidence of the petition and the required signatures, and I’ll call a meeting”.

Dutton is yet to do that, but he did intimate a little earlier that he wouldn’t have called for a second meeting if he didn’t have the numbers.

We spoke last night about the history of this tactic. It has been used in an underhanded way in the past, so we need to be careful.

When Rudd took the leadership from Gillard, rumours of a petition were intentionally circulated through the press gallery. It was enough to scare Gillard into a party room meeting and facilitate a successful challenge, securing Rudd power. The petition never materialised.

In this case, we have more confidence that the petition exists. Multiple sources have assured us they have laid actual eyes on the petition. Jane Prentice, a Liberal MP and Turnbull backer, said publicly that the petition existed, and that when she saw it last night it had nine signatures.

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Peter Dutton makes a brief statement to media in Parliament House Canberra this morning. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian

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Right, well. In case you were under any illusion, the Coalition is now tearing itself to shreds in full public glare, rather than in the shadows.

In the space of about five minutes, we’ve heard strong words from two Coalition MPs. Not backgrounding, no anonymous quoting. Just full-on attacks in the public sphere.

Nationals MP Michelle Landry said:

I do think that this is Tony Abbott and his mates who are doing this, and it’s a disgrace. It’s revenge on him losing the prime ministership and I’ve had enough, my electorate has had enough. If they’re going to change, do it today, let us get on with the job.

Liberal MP Sarah Henderson said she was offered a ministry to move to Dutton’s camp.

To be rewarded for an act of treachery would be a terrible thing.

Updated

Senior Labor figures hit the airwaves this morning, seeking to heap pressure on Dutton over the eligibility question.

Tony Burke, manager of opposition business, said:

There are really serious question marks over whether or not the man who wants to be prime minister of Australia later on today is even eligible to be a member of Parliament.

And this is because of his financial interests. The constitution’s clear, you can’t be taking cash for your business from the government and at the same time be a member of Parliament. And so there are really serious questions to answer here.

Updated

Progressive forces are already marshalling against Dutton, and GetUp has played a significant role. Earlier this week, the group released focus group research and polling that showed Dutton lacked support and was a relative unknown among voters.

GetUp has now come to parliament. They’re planning an event at 10am. They are gathering with human rights activists with photos of the children still on Nauru. Dutton this week said he was proud of having removed children from detention. GetUP calls this a “lie”.

Shen Narayanasamy, GetUp’s human rights advocate, said Dutton needed to acknowledge the truth. She said:

Backbencher Peter Dutton said he had every child out of detention, but after 5 long years there are still 116 children detained offshore on Nauru. 40 of them were born behind bars.

The only life these children have known are guards shouting, steel fences, and unending detention on a tiny island the size of Melbourne’s airport. Where they’re called by a number, not even a name.

And more on Dutton’s eligibility. This is from George Williams, one of the most esteemed constitutional experts in the country. He’s read the advice commissioned by Labor and prepared by Bret Walker, SC. Williams is unequivocal.

It is clear that Peter Dutton should be referred to the high court. There is a real prospect that a person seeking to be our PM has breached section 44 of the constitution and is disqualified from parliament.

What does this mean in practical terms? Well, it requires parliament to refer Dutton to the high court, and that’s highly unlikely. What it does do, however, is put more doubt in the minds of those Coalition MPs sitting on the fence in this leadership tussle.

Can they side with a leader who may not even be eligible for parliament?

Just a little more on Peter Dutton’s legal advice. He sought it in December last year, so this whole issue has been in play for a long, long time.

Are you still struggling to work out what this is all about? I’ll try to break it down. You’ll remember that earlier this week serious questions were raised about Dutton’s eligibility for parliament.

Dutton’s problem lies in a section of the constitution (section 44 [v]) that bars MPs from holding a financial interest in the federal government. In this case, it’s alleged that Dutton’s family trust owned a childcare company that was receiving millions in government subsidies renders him ineligible.

Dutton has released his own legal advice, which amounts to two pages. It finds he is in the clear because Dutton’s trust did not have a formal agreement - of the kind referred to in the constitution- with the government to receive the subsidies. What they’re saying, in essence, is that the payments were made under a statutory scheme that required no formal contract with Dutton or his trust.

In the present instance, there is, in my opinion, no “agreement” within the meaning of s.44 (v) to which the trustee company is a party. The only relevant rights which are created are species of statutory entitlement. Accordingly, Mr Dutton cannot have a pecuniary interest in an agreement within the meaning of s.44(v) by virtue of the trustee company’s receipt of payments under this statutory scheme.

The advice, as I say, is only two pages. The lawyer who authored it is not a well-known constitutional expert.

On the other hand, two of Australia’s leading constitutional minds, Anne Twomey and George Williams, have both said Dutton has a case to answer.

Labor also commissioned legal advice from another very senior legal figure, Bret Walker, SC, who found Dutton was arguably ineligible for parliament. Walker’s opinion was more exhaustive and voluminous. It stretches out to about 16 pages.

Updated

Turnbull camp says they have numbers to survive spill

This all appears to be part of the Dutton camp’s strategy. Keep things moving. Keep the pressure on Turnbull. Try to force him into a party room meeting.

We saw similar tactics last night. Turnbull is, so far, remaining firm. They are confident they still have the numbers.

One of Turnbull’s key backers, Trent Zimmerman, spoke a little earlier. He said he is aware of no one who has switched to Dutton’s camp since Tuesday. In fact, he says all we’ve seen is some of the cabinet ministers who offered their resignations since re-affirm their loyalty to Turnbull.

I’m not aware of anyone who’s changed their views since Tuesday’s party room meeting.

Does Turnbull have the numbers?

I’m confident that that’s the case, since Tuesday we’ve obviously also seen strong statement of support from those cabinet ministers that voted for Peter Dutton on Tuesday.

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Dutton speaks to the press

Blink and you’ll have missed it. Dutton’s press conference was incredibly brief.

He confirmed only that he asked for a second leadership spill.

I’m going to address the media later on. As I put out, by way of statement earlier, earlier this morning I called the prime minister to advise him that it was my judgement that the majority of the party room no longer supported his leadership. As such, I asked him to convene a meeting of the Liberal party at which I would challenge for the leadership of the parliamentary Liberal party. Thank you very much.

Updated

Dutton releases his own legal advice on eligibility

Peter Dutton has just released his own legal advice on his eligibility for parliament. It finds him eligible for parliament. In an accompanying statement, he says the campaign against his eligibility is “spurious and baseless”.

Over recent days a spurious and baseless campaign has been conducted against me in relation to an alleged breach of section 44 of the constitution.

The timing on the eve of current events in Australian politics is curious.

There has never been any doubt about my eligibility to sit in the Parliament and I attach the unequivocal legal advice I obtained in 2017 to that effect.

Earlier, he said he told the prime minister that he no longer supported his leadership and again called for a party room meeting.

Updated

More ministers resign, Nationals MP pledges to defy Dutton and defect to crossbench

There have significant other developments in this moving feats this morning.

  • Kevin Hogan, a Nationals MP, has said he will move to the crossbench under a Dutton government. He would still guarantee supply and confidence to the Coalition, he said. That reduces the threat of an early election for Dutton.
  • Zed Seselja, a junior minister and Dutton backer, has insisted his resignation be accepted by Turnbull. The resignation has been accepted
  • Michael Sukkar, a key player in the rebellion and Dutton backer, has also insisted his resignation be accepted. The resignation has been accepted.

Updated

Dutton immediately hits back

Dutton has immediately hit back. Things are already moving at a cracking pace.

He has called a press conference. It is due imminently. We’ll bring you that as soon as it happens.

Turnbull demands evidence before calling critical meeting

Guardian Australia understands the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, and Peter Dutton, have spoken this morning.

The prime minister has told Dutton he needs to see evidence of the requisite number of signatures before calling a party room meeting, at which the leadership ballot would be held. Dutton has not provided such evidence.

Updated

Good morning, and welcome to another day of chaos in Canberra.

It’s Christopher Knaus here, ready to take you through what promises to be another day of heady leadership machinations.

Things are moving quickly already this morning.

We’re learning that Peter Dutton has spoken with the Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to request another party room meeting.

“A few minutes ago I spoke with Malcolm Turnbull to advise him I believed the majority of the party room no longer supported his leadership,” he wrote on Twitter.

“Accordingly, I asked him to convene a party room meeting at which I would challenge for the leadership of the Parliamentary Liberal Party.”

After failing to force a second leadership spill last night, Peter Dutton’s camp is beating the drum already this morning. We’re learning that conservative Senator Zed Seselja - one of the group of MPs who tried to quit the front bench after the spill on Monday - is now urging the Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to accept his resignation.

On the other side another Nationals member, this time New South Wales MP Kevin Hogan, has said he will sit on the crossbench if there is a leadership change.

Hogan has said he would still vote against motions of no confidence against the government and provide supply, but it sends a strong message.
Here’s what happened yesterday:

  • Late on Wednesday evening backers of Peter Dutton began circulating a petition to force a party room meeting. The push was unsuccessful, and the number of signatures remain unclear. We do know that it exists, though, which is something. A party room meeting can either take place tomorrow or in the next sitting period in September. The Liberal MP Jane Prentice said she thought the petition had about nine signatures on it yesterday evening. Estimates on the numbers have varied wildly.
  • Earlier, Dutton outlined a policy manifesto as he pitched himself as an alternative leader. One of his policies was removing the GST from energy bills for families and pensioners. The idea was widely ridiculed as an unworkable “thought bubble” and “piecemeal”. The Treasurer Scott Morrison, who is digging in with Turnbull, said it would be a budget “blower”.
  • Dutton also confirmed he was still working the phones, trying to drum up enough support for a second tilt at the leadership.
  • James McGrath became the third frontbencher to resign from cabinet, following Dutton and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells. McGrath is a former Turnbull insider. His loss is significant. As I mentioned, he’s now joined by Seselja and the earlier resignation of Concetta Fierravanti-Wells.
  • Turnbull, meanwhile, tried desperately to keep his cabinet together and stare down the rebels. He appeared alongside the treasurer, Scott Morrison, and the finance minister, Mathias Cormann, two figures of authority within the Coalition, and said that those who had previously offered their resignations had since re-pledged their loyalty to him.
  • Amid all of this, questions about Dutton’s eligibility for parliament have continued to swirl. Labor went hard on the issue during question time, before Turnbull referred the matter to the solicitor general for consideration. Late on Wednesday, Labor released advice from Bret Walker, SC, suggesting Dutton was not eligible for election and therefore not eligible to sit in the current parliament.
  • Tony Abbott denied doing any deal to secure a cabinet position under a Dutton government.
  • The Coalition has dumped two policies, one of which was a key part of its agenda. The corporate tax cut bill was blocked in the Senate, and Turnbull said it would not be taken to the next election. The government also said it would stop trying to repeal the energy supplement, a payment to low-income welfare recipients to help with energy costs.
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