Pete Crow-Armstrong has officially flipped the script on Kalshi’s NL MVP market and surpassed Shohei Ohtani as the favorite to win. Crow-Armstrong made the treacherous climb from 1% at opening to now being the favorite.
Ohtani was the favorite for most of the season before injury forced him out as a pitcher. Although his batting remains elite, it was his dual-threat ability that kept him far ahead. As things stand now, Crow-Armstrong has a 13% lead on Ohtani with a 57% chance of winning. A $10 trade on Crow-Armstrong winning the National League MVP profits $7.32.
NL MVP winner - Kalshi
- Pete Crow-Armstrong 57%
- Shohei Ohtani 44%
Just under a week ago, Pete Crow-Armstrong sat 3% behind Ohtani with a 49% chance to win. Kalshi’s latest update bumped him up 8% while Ohtani fell the same amount.
The rise
Pete Crow-Armstrong came into the 2026 MLB season as an afterthought in the NL MVP race. He opened at just 1% and has risen to contend with Shohei Ohtani since. He’s in the middle of a career year across the board with 487 at-bats, 136 hits, 31 home runs, 79 RBI, and 90 runs total on a .279 average.
At the time of writing, his run in August is what’s been solidifying his price at the top. In 73 at-bats, he has 19 hits, 19 runs, 16 RBI, and seven home runs, on a .260 average. If his efficiency continues, he’s on pace to break his previous monthly highs in June and July.
He has a strong chance to strengthen his price through the Chicago Cubs' final 11 series of the regular season. He’ll face the Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Cincinnati Reds twice. All teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in hits allowed.
Could Ohtani bounce back?
At the end of the day, yes, this is still Shohei Ohtani. His batting numbers are on par with PCA at 457 at-bats for 133 hits, 82 runs, 80 RBI, and 30 home runs at a .291 average. All MVP-worthy numbers.
Ohtani could reclaim the top spot if he returns to the mound this season. Recent reports hint at a potential return to pitching in early September. Others suggest that it’ll come soon, before the playoffs.
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