Phil Foden will be the key in this weekend's shoot-out at the Etihad – where I expect Manchester City to keep the title's destiny in their own hands.
As a contest between two of English football's greatest empires in the Premier League era, there is virtually nothing to choose between City and Liverpool. Since the 2018/19 season, Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp have been head and shoulders above the rest – and the stats prove it.
In their last 144 games, City have taken 338 points with a goal difference of +242, Liverpool have stockpiled 337 points with a +202 goal difference. That's why it's so hard to pick one side or the other to win on Sunday and win the title.
They have both become winning machines: Ruthless, consistent, thrilling to watch but still giving youngsters a chance to shine. This is fast turning into the biggest rivalry in English football since Fergie vs Wenger at Manchester United and Arsenal for seven or eight years either side of the millennium.
If I have to pick a winner this time, I would go with the formbook and side with home advantage – since 2010, Liverpool have won only once in 11 Premier League trips to the Etihad (City winning six with four draws). And although you can find potential matchwinners all over the pitch, repeatedly my mind is drawn to Foden's outstanding display when City dismantled Liverpool 4-1 at Anfield 14 months ago – one of the finest individual performances I've ever seen.
Foden made a stunning impact off the bench against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League in midweek, threading the pass for Kevin De Bruyne's winner through the eyes of a needle despite the attention of four defenders, and I think he'll start on Sunday. Liverpool won't be haunted by that result – they were in the midst of a shocking run of home defeats behind closed doors at the time – but they will be wary of Foden's twinkling feet and ability to pick a pass in the final third.
I don't think City can lose the title this weekend, but if they win to open up a four-point advantage with only seven games to go, I can't see Liverpool closing the gap. Having said that, both teams play a high line – and without Ruben Dias, I do worry about City defensively.
Liverpool have bags of pace to exploit the space in behind, and if they were to win, the momentum they would have from 11 consecutive league wins would be almost unstoppable. If Mo Salah was to sign a new contract on the run-in, that might be worth an extra point or two in itself because of the feel-good factor it would generate.
And I also wonder whether Guardiola will put Jack Grealish in his starting XI. As a £100million player, these are the games you want to play in, but so far Grealish has been very much a part of an all-star cast at the Etihad – not top of the bill. Unlike certain other clubs, one thing you notice about City and Liverpool is that you never hear players complaining in public about their lack of game time. No leaks, no briefings, all kept in-house.
That speaks volumes for Guardiola and Klopp's man-management, and it's one reason they have assembled two of the finest squads to grace the Premier League. I sat down earlier this week and tried to pick a combined XI from the players available to feature at the Etihad. I would have had an easier job trying to fit a coachload of day trippers in the back of a Ford Fiesta.
Here's what I finally settled on – with Foden as a false No.9 in a 4-3-3 shape: Ederson; Alexander-Arnold, Van Dijk, Laporte, Cancelo; Fabinho, De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva; Salah, Foden, Mane.
