Global volumes of alcohol consumption will fall until 2031, as consumers in traditional drinking markets such as Europe, North America and China cut back.
The consumption of spirits, beer and wine has fallen by 2% from 2024 to 2025 and will continue to fall in the following years until after 2031, a global alcohol market research firm, IWSR, estimates in its first 10-year forecast spanning 160 markets.
By 2035, total volumes are expected to remain 1% below 2025 levels despite a 9% growth in the global population of legal drinking-age consumers.
Annual per-capita consumption of pure alcohol is forecast to fall by around half a liter — roughly equivalent to two bottles of spirits per year — over the decade.
The decline is expected to be particularly pronounced in some of the world's largest alcohol markets.
Consumption volumes are forecast to fall by nearly one-fifth in both China and the United States by 2035. Germany is expected to record a 14% decline, while consumption in the United Kingdom is projected to drop by 13%. Japan is forecast to see a 15% fall.
By contrast, several emerging markets are expected to post strong growth, with India becoming one of the biggest drivers of alcohol demand after China. Annual servings consumed are forecast to increase by 13% in Mexico, 15% in Vietnam, 26% in Colombia and 38% in India between 2025 and 2035.
“2035 will be a vastly different market landscape than the one we see today,” Marten Lodewijks, President and Managing Director of IWSR, said in a press release.
The outlook varies sharply across different categories of alcoholic drinks. Global wine consumption from 2025 to 2035 is forecast to decline by 14%, spirits consumption is expected to fall by 2%, while beer volumes are projected to decline by around 1%.
Ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages, such as premixed cocktails, on the contrary, are expected to grow by 17% globally.
“Global RTD consumption reached 1 billion 9 litre cases for the first time in 2025, and there is no sign of this trend abating anytime soon,” Luke Tegner, IWSR Head of Consulting, said.
