This year's triple lock on pensions for 12.3million Brits could be scrapped as soon as next week, it is reported.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak is widely expected to axe or water down the Tory manifesto pledge to prevent pensions rising by 8% next April.
But he has still not made a public announcement on exactly what he will do, or how - and time is running out to decide.
The latest rise in average earnings will be published on September 14 - and if the triple lock is not scrapped in the coming weeks, that figure would set next year’s pension rise.
Due to a statistical quirk caused by Covid, the last rise in weekly earnings was 7.4%.
A similar figure this month would hand pensioners an April 2022 hike worth well over double the inflation rate, while 6million working-age Brits’ benefits are cut and most public sector wages are frozen.
A source refused to confirm or deny reports by Bloomberg, which said the Chancellor may reveal his hand as soon as Tuesday.
But Downing Street and Mr Sunak have both previously hinted they will axe the triple lock, at least temporarily.
No10 said last month: “We recognise the legitimate concerns about potentially artificially inflated earnings impacting the uprating of pensions.”
The anomaly emerged due to Covid layoffs and furlough.
In May-July 2020, average weekly earnings fell by 1% compared to the year before. That means they are now "artificially" bouncing back year-on-year.
But because the triple lock is based on the highest of earnings, inflation or 2.5%, the state pension rose by 2.5% in April 2021 anyway - even though earnings fell elsewhere.
Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Helen Morrissey said: “The projected huge growth in earnings data means pensioners could see their state pensions increase by more than 8%. Such a move will cost billions.
“There are several options available including reverting to a double lock or smoothing the earnings data to strip out the effects of furlough.
“Any decision needs to take account of the needs of both pensioners and taxpayers. An early decision would be welcomed as bringing clarity for everyone.”
But the Lib Dems, who pioneered the triple lock, said scrapping it would be "an outrageous betrayal to millions of pensioners".
Treasury spokesperson Christine Jardine said: "The Tories made this promise in their manifesto just two years ago. Clearly that manifesto is no longer worth the paper it was written on."
