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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Mark Tran

Peering ahead to the presidential race

The dust has barely settled on the US midterm elections, but political analysts - political junkies might be a more apt description - are already gearing up for the 2008 presidential race.

The polling specialist Rasmussen Reports today released its first presidential tracking poll, even though we are move than two years away from the presidential vote.

It shows that Hillary Clinton, who cruised to victory in her New York Senate race, is the frontrunner to win the Democratic nomination with 29% of Democratic votes. No surprises there.

What will raise eyebrows, however, is the strong showing of Barack Obama, the African-American senator from Illinois whose book, Audacity of Hope, is on the New York Times bestseller list. He comes second at 22% among Democratic voters.

The two are well ahead of other potential hopefuls, the former vice president Al Gore (13%), the 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards (10%) and John Kerry, who has a paltry 4%.

If the Democrats do pick Mrs Clinton, she would lose to John McCain, the likely Republican candidate, 48%-43% if the election were held today, the poll shows.

While we're on polling predictions, hats off to Larry Sabato, whose crystal ball was remarkably accurate in this week's midterms. The political scientist at the University of Virginia stuck his neck out and predicted a gain of six Senate seats for the Democrats, giving them 51.

If Jim Webb does win Virginia, Mr Sabato will have been proven right. He also predicted 30 gains in the House, giving the Democrats 232 seats - just three over the actual number.

For a flavour of the recrimination among Republicans, readers can check out the Hot Air blog - or Kevin Anderson's post on this blog. One intriguing argument is that conservatism did not lose, it was the Republicans.

Meanwhile, George Bush has become a punchbag - in video terms, at least.

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