One of the world's most protracted armed conflicts could finally be drawing to a close in Turkey. This month, a small group of fighters from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been waging an armed struggle against the Turkish state for greater minority rights, voluntarily disarmed.
At a ceremony in northern Iraq, PKK commander Bese Hozart announced that the disarmament by 30 fighters - 15 men and 15 women - was undertaken freely and in line with the group's commitment to pursue a democratic socialist society through peaceful means. The fighters' weapons were burned as part of the symbolic event.
The move came just days after the release of a video message from imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, who reiterated his call for an end to the armed struggle and the formal dissolution of the group. It was the first time the Turkish public had heard Öcalan’s voice since his incarceration in 1999.
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan responded by telling supporters that the country had reached a historic moment. Ankara now expects a complete disarmament of the remaining PKK fighters by autumn.
Since the beginning of the peace process last year, Erdoğan has ruled out making concessions, insisting the rebels are unilaterally surrendering. However, the high-profile nature of the disarmament ceremony is increasing pressure on the government to respond in kind.
“This is a historic moment; this is a conflict that has been going on for nearly half a century. Now it's the government's turn to actually open up the political space,” said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş of the Brookings Institution in Washington.
“Both the Kurdish side and the Turkish side are telling their own constituencies that they’re not giving up much—trying to convince their bases, which, in both cases, seem unprepared for such a radical shift,” she added.
Kurdish leader Ocalan calls for PKK disarmament, paving way for peace
Opaque negotiations, rising distrust
As a gesture of goodwill, the government has reportedly improved Öcalan’s prison conditions and allowed communication through a so-called “secretariat.”
However, the PKK continues to press for broader concessions, including an amnesty for its members and the right for ex-fighters to return to Turkey. There have also been calls for Öcalan’s release, alongside the release of tens of thousands of individuals jailed under Turkey’s broad anti-terror laws.
Yet concerns are mounting over the transparency of the peace negotiations. “It’s really difficult even to assess it because we don’t really know what’s going on,” said Zeynep Ardıç, an expert on conflict resolution at Istanbul’s Medeniyet University. “Some negotiations don’t need to be public, but the public should still be informed,” she said.
Ardıç warned that the current polarization in Turkish politics and a legacy of mistrust built over decades of conflict make transparency essential. “There should be a bit of transparency, because people don’t trust state institutions, people don’t trust each other, people don’t trust the government or the judiciary.
So, it’s not easy to succeed under these circumstances. The government needs to reinstall trust - not just among Kurdish people, but among Turkish people as well.”
Politics could undermine fragile progress
Following the disarmament ceremony, Erdoğan announced the formation of a parliamentary commission to oversee the process, including members from his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), his coalition partner the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and the pro-Kurdish People's Equality and Democracy Party (DEM). Notably absent was the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), whose exclusion is fueling fears that Erdoğan is politicizing the peace process.
Erdoğan requires the support of Kurdish parliamentarians to amend the constitution and potentially remove presidential term limits—allowing him to remain in power indefinitely.
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“Erdoğan is trying to juggle two conflicting priorities,” noted analyst Atilla Yeşilada of U.S.-based consultancy Global Source Partners. “A: give the Kurds the least of what they want in return for a constitution that allows him to run again, and B: broaden his war against the CHP. I don’t know how he can finesse that.”
While Erdoğan speaks of a new era of unity between Turks, Arabs, and Kurds, he is simultaneously escalating a legal crackdown on the CHP, even going so far as to label the party a terror threat. This is a risky move, given that the pro-Kurdish DEM party has previously supported CHP candidates in both presidential and mayoral elections.
Kurdish analyst Mesut Yeğen, of the Center for Social Impact Research in Istanbul, warned that Erdoğan may be overplaying his hand. “If Erdoğan’s pressure on the CHP continues, then it’s likely that DEM’s electorate, members, and cadres could grow discontent,” Yeğen predicted.
“They’ll think that if Erdoğan succeeds against CHP, he’ll start a similar campaign against the DEM. So I think they will strike a kind of balance.”
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Despite the uncertainty, powerful incentives remain on both sides to pursue peace. With the PKK largely pushed out of Turkish territory and facing military defeat, and Erdoğan in dire need of parliamentary support, momentum for a resolution is strong.
But with negotiations shrouded in secrecy, many remain skeptical about what kind of peace this process will ultimately deliver.
