PITTSBURGH — One of the most fun exercises when a coaching vacancy in college football or basketball occurs is the wishful thinking of fans and media alike about which candidates will be interested in the job. It is almost always an exercise loaded with pipe dreams.
Almost as much fun is the moaning about who didn't get hired when the new coach is named.
Regardless of who is hired there will always be the national media and even some local media who will declare it a "home run hire!" And then they will go on to pontificate about just how great of a fit it is and how incredibly lucky your favorite school is to have hired him.
Unfortunately, we have been confronted time after time with the reality that there is no such thing as a home run hire, but some keep insisting on using that phrase. Sure, there are big names and hot candidates, but until they actually get to their job and prove they are up to the task, it is all speculation.
I say this with the back drop of the NCAA Tournament and the start of the coaching hiring and firing season upon us. I also have the benefit of hindsight as I look back at the happenings at Pitt with respect to the basketball job.
When Jamie Dixon left for TCU in 2015, some of the hottest "can't-miss candidates" out there were Bryce Drew and Archie Miller. And the year before that, the home run hire of all hires was VCU's Shaka Smart. Pitt had zero chance of getting Drew or Miller, but fans held out hope that Drew would be the guy.
Pitt athletic director Scott Barnes made the decision to hire Kevin Stallings, and of course that was about as well received as a steak and hamburger lunch at a vegetarian convention. It also turned out to be a disaster and a well-documented one, so there is no need to revisit the details.
Drew took Stallings' old job at Vanderbilt and was every bit the disaster Stallings was at Pitt. Drew was really good at Valparaiso, but coaching in the SEC is a different animal and he was fired after going 0-18 in conference games in Year 3.
Miller got one of the crown jewels of the college basketball profession — Indiana. He was going to take the Hoosiers back on top like they were in the golden age when Bobby Knight was hoisting chairs across the gym.
Miller was fired after four mostly forgettable years in charge in Bloomington. Again, he was excellent in the Atlantic 10 but overmatched in the Big Ten, and the job was clearly too big for him.
Smart already had been hired at another crown jewel program, Texas. The school has seemingly unlimited resources, its own TV network and is in a recruiting hotbed for basketball players. Smart was a perfect choice — young, dynamic, African American and took his last school, VCU, to the Final Four.
Unlike Miller and Drew, Smart hasn't been fired ... yet. He likely saved his job by making the NCAA Tournament this year but then put himself right back on the hot seat by losing to Abilene Christian. Smart has been in Austin six seasons and he has produced a losing conference record and zero NCAA Tournament wins.
One more "can't-miss" coach from that round of the carousel — Dixon at TCU — hasn't exactly lit the world on fire. He was considered one of the best coaches in America and going home to his alma mater was going to be a match made in heaven.
The school put resources into the program and ponied up for Dixon. The return has been a program that is still irrelevant — one NCAA bid in five seasons and a lot of resentment as Dixon was flirting with the UCLA job a couple years back.
Closer to home, Heather Lyke seemingly rectified the Stallings disaster by hiring another hot name, Jeff Capel, to be Pitt's coach. This was a decision that was universally praised as Capel's pedigree and background seemed to scream "can't-miss hire!"
Three years into Capel's time here and there has yet to be a winning season. The last two seasons have ended in monumental collapses down the stretch and he has had a bit of a mass exodus on his hands. Capel was known as an ace recruiter, but his class for this year has at least five scholarships available and zero players committed.
I'm not ready to write the obituary to Capel's time, as I think he has things on the right track. And he did take over a really bad program, so it is not surprising that it has taken some time.
Still, Pitt is not likely to be an NCAA Tournament team next season, and if they aren't, four years after arriving to a glorious welcome, Capel will find himself on the hot seat.
All of this should be a cautionary tale that there is no such thing as a can't-miss hire, and finding the right fit is more important than finding the right name. Remember that next time your school has to hire a head coach for one of its programs.
