The Penguins have received plenty of good news in the past week with regards to the health of some of their key players. Kris Letang is the most important injured player, and he's expected to be back for the playoffs. There has also been encouraging news about Evgeni Malkin, Conor Sheary, Jake Guentzel, Oli Maata, Chad Ruhwedel and Trevor Daley in recent days.
The party line is that the four-game losing streak (heading into Friday) is a product of injuries, and, once healthy, the Penguins will be legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. That is true, but only to a point.
Once healthy, the Penguins indeed become the team that nobody in the NHL particularly wants to play in the playoffs. They are still the defending Stanley Cup champions and still one of the deepest and most talented teams in the field. However, I'd be careful about dismissing this losing streak as meaningless _ because it's not. People who are focused on the team getting healthy for the playoffs are missing the point.
This could all turn out to be a case of too little and too late. This losing streak has all but ensured the Penguins will have the toughest road to a Stanley Cup championship of any team. They will have to face Columbus and Washington (possibly on the road in both) just to get to the Eastern Conference final. Then there's a strong possibility they might have to beat red-hot Chicago in the Stanley Cup Final. Those are clearly the three best teams in the league, and the Penguins might have to beat all three to win the Stanley Cup. That's asking a lot of any team, even one as talented and experienced as the Penguins.
That's why this current four-game losing streak is significant.
It could be argued the Penguins would have won most of those games had they been healthy. The Blackhawks clearly took advantage of the short-handed Penguins the other night, and a playoff series between the two would look much different than that game. But the Penguins are now out of legitimate contention for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division.
The day before the losing streak began, March 22, the Penguins had 101 points and were one point behind the Capitals for the best record in the NHL. They had the second best record in the league and were one point ahead of Columbus and Chicago.
That had the organization and fan base dreaming of a division title and a first-round series against a wild-card team. That would have meant cruising in an easy series (relatively) while Washington and Columbus knocked each other around in the first round. It also would have meant the Penguins would have to play only one of the two other top teams instead of both. That's when this losing streak began, coinciding with the Capitals stretching their winning streak to six games in a row.
The Penguins (103) now sit seven points behind the Capitals (110) with six games to play and have almost no chance of catching them. They are also three points behind the Blue Jackets and two behind the Blackhawks. They're almost assured of a first-round series with Columbus.
Most would agree the Penguins should be able to handle Columbus in a seven-game series because they're a better team _ but at what cost? That would be a brutal, extremely physical series. Let's also not forget the Blue Jackets seem to have an affection for taking runs at the Penguins' best players, so the risk of injury would be real. The series would likely be at least six games and maybe even seven.
Recovering from that series in time to play the Capitals would be difficult. It's fair to wonder what the Penguins would have left in the tank, especially against the Capitals, who seem to be playing their best hockey right now. The Penguins have had the Capitals' number in the playoffs, but this is a new season. The Capitals are desperate and know their window is closing, so it won't shock me if they break through this year.
I'm not saying the Penguins can't run through this gauntlet and come out the other side. They clearly can. However, it isn't going to be easy, and it may be asking a little too much of them. They haven't had their best players on the ice together much in the past six weeks, so there could be some rust, too.
This four-game losing streak isn't a true gauge because of their injuries, but it could turn out to be a huge factor in why the Penguins don't repeat.
