The Steelers have until 4 p.m. Monday to get a long-term deal done with Le'Veon Bell. If that deadline passes, the franchise tag designation will stick, and Bell will make $12.12 million this season.
The Post-Gazette's Ray Fittipaldo wrote about the intricacies of the situation earlier this week. Bell's situation isn't unique as teams designate players with the franchise tag to try and buy more time for negotiations every season.
That article points out that, for the most part, players designated with the franchise tag work out long-term deals right at the deadline. That would suggest the suspense will mount all weekend and then right about 3:55 p.m. Monday, the Steelers will announce they have reached a long-term deal with Bell.
Let's hope that is not the case.
The Steelers should not make Bell the highest paid running back in the league. They should not sign him to a long-term deal. They should not move an inch from their current position that he is on a one-year deal.
Bell is 25 years old and has played four seasons in the NFL. He is a young man in the real world, but in the world of NFL running backs, he is already becoming an old man. The average career of an NFL running back is only 3.1 years.
The larger issue is Bell has been a featured back his entire career. He has averaged 226 carries over his four seasons. That is 908 carries. Add to that his 227 receptions, and that is a lot of mileage and hits on a body.
Adrian Peterson has bucked the odds and remained productive despite the wear and tear on his body. But he is the exception to the rule. ESPN.com did a study two years ago and found that a running back's peak production will take place before his 27th birthday. After that, there is a sharp decline.
Bell will be 26 next February. That suggests he may only have two seasons _ this one and next _ as one of the top running backs in the NFL. It isn't a hard and fast rule, obviously, but there is a lot of data to back up the point.
That doesn't even take into account the fact that Bell has been injury-prone throughout his career and has played in all 16 games only once.
He has also been suspended twice for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Maybe he's put that behind him and it won't ever be an issue again. But that is a pretty big risk to take.
NFL contracts are not guaranteed, so the Steelers could structure a front-loaded deal. This would enable them to cut him after two or three years with a little less of a salary cap hit.
Bell likely isn't ready to take a team-friendly deal and like most NFL players will want a lot of guaranteed money. The Steelers would be foolish to give him anything more than about $20 million guaranteed.
That's why the best course of action for the Steelers would be to do what they used to do better than any other team in the NFL _ run out the clock. The Steelers should let Bell play this year for the $12.12 million and hope he stays healthy the whole season, has a huge year and leads them deep into the playoffs.
If he does all that, then they can put the tag on him again for next season. That would cost them about $14.5 million, but it would only lock him up for one more season.
That would represent $26.6 million the Steelers would pay Bell over the next two seasons, roughly the amount of guaranteed money they will have to give him to get a long-term deal done. The only difference is they could part ways with him after next season and have no dead salary cap money to deal with like they would if they cut him in the middle of a long-term deal.
Bell is one of the best running backs the Steelers have ever had. He is no worse than the second-best running back in the NFL. It is usually not a smart strategy to let players at the top of their profession leave and go to another franchise.
That is true in baseball, basketball and hockey, but in the NFL, especially with regard to business, that principle doesn't apply. The smart way to handle running backs is to try and get about five seasons out of them and then move on.
