The Steelers' schedule was released on Thursday and by midday Friday many local pundits and observers had predicted them to be a 10- or 11-win team. The theory is that the Steelers won eight games last season without Ben Roethlisberger, and now that he is back, it has to be worth at least two or three wins, right?
Um, not quite.
Actually, the Steelers are more likely to be a seven-win team than a 10-win team. I have them at 8-8, though I didn't do that exhausting exercise where I go game by game and try to guess whether they win or lose. The problem is people still think this is the Steelers team of recent history that was perennially in the playoffs.
They aren't that anymore and the sooner people recognize that, the better off they will be. This is a team with a lot of flaws and a lot of questions, and that is generally not the profile of a team that has a breakout season and wins a bunch of games.
Start with Roethlisberger, who should be an improvement over Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges _ but by how much? And that's assuming Roethlisberger stays healthy and is able to play at a reasonably high level. That's also assuming he can find his magic without Antonio Brown to bail him out in big moments. Roethlisberger is 38 and no longer anywhere close to his prime.
James Conner could be a Pro Bowl running back, and if he has a big season the Steelers offense will have a chance to really take a step forward. But Conner has not proven he is durable enough to be counted on for an entire season. He needs to prove he can stay healthy for an entire season, mostly because he is the only three-down back the Steelers have.
JuJu Smith-Schuster might be the star receiver we saw two years ago. He also might be the pedestrian receiver we saw last year. Smith-Schuster has to prove he can be a star without Brown on the other side drawing the attention of the defense. And while James Washington and Diontae Johnson have shown flashes, neither has established he can be a consistent performer.
The offensive line showed some leaks last season. Alejandro Villanueva showed some signs his age may be catching up to him. Ramon Foster retired. David DeCastro is a year older. They have some options to fill out their line but they are either unproven or aging.
The Steelers also could have two excellent tight ends in Vance McDonald and Eric Ebron. But McDonald has also been injury prone and Ebron is coming off a major injury and has really had only one season where his production matched his potential.
Most of the projections are based on Roethlisberger returning and the Steelers defense, which is expected to be excellent this year. The defense doesn't have a lot of depth, though, and an injury or two could be huge. Also the defense is likely to take a slight step back because some of its success was predicated on generating turnovers.
Again, there are some reasons to think the Steelers could have a good season, but there are still a lot more questions than answers. And gone are the days when the rest of the AFC feared the Steelers or they were automatically contenders based on their roster. They don't have the high-level skill position players on offense they used to have and Roethlisberger isn't a young man.
And the Steelers don't play in a vacuum; there are other teams that seem to be better in the AFC. The Ravens and Chiefs are better than the Steelers. The Bills are likely better. The Titans and Texans are likely better and, yes, even the Browns are better. And don't be surprised if the Patriots, despite the loss of Tom Brady, are still better, as well. Those teams all have younger quarterbacks and younger talent at some key positions than the Steelers, and that is all part of the equation.
Add all of that up and the bottom line is this: If you are picking the Steelers to win 10 or 11 games, it means you believe a whole lot is going to go right for them. You believe Roethlisberger is going to beat Father Time, Conner and the tight ends will stay healthy, the offensive line is going to find a fountain of youth and Smith-Schuster will be a No. 1 receiver.
That's a whole lot that has to go right to believe that they are destined to have a bounce-back season.
