GOODYEAR, Ariz. _ Former Cubs manager Joe Maddon frequently expounded on the evils of "outcome bias," or concluding the outcome of an occurrence if one thing happened rather than another.
"Outcome bias messes with a lot of people's heads," Maddon once said.
That might be the case, but is it wrong to believe the Cubs' 2019 collapse might not have happened had Javier Baez been available for the stretch run in September?
Baez suffered a hairline fracture in his left thumb while sliding headfirst into second base Sept. 1 at Wrigley Field, when the Cubs were three games out of first place in the National League Central and held a 1{ game lead over the Phillies for the second wild-card spot.
With Baez out, the Cubs went 10-16 the rest of the way, missing the postseason for the first time since 2014 and waving goodbye to Maddon.
Would Javy being Javy have made a difference?
"You never know," Baez said. "I was in a slump when I got hurt, but there was still a whole month of baseball left.
"For me it was frustrating because it was a small injury, but it kept me out for a month. Who knows what would've happened if I was playing?"
We'll never know, of course. But we do know what happened with Baez in the lineup. He finished with 29 home runs and 85 RBIs in 138 games after finishing second to Christian Yelich in NL Most Valuable Player voting in 2018.
Baez had only one at-bat after suffering the wrist injury in Miller Park, striking out to end a 9-8 loss to the Cardinals on Sept. 21 at Wrigley Field, the dagger that for all intents and purposes ended the Cubs' wild-card hopes. (He also was used as a pinch runner in four games.)
"You definitely think about it, especially a guy of his caliber who can put a team on his back at times," pitcher Kyle Hendricks said. "That was a huge loss, and even to miss (Anthony Rizzo) for a few games, and for him not to be 100% when he came back. ... We had some tough things to deal with at the end of the year.
"You can always do the 'What if?' game, but it's good to have this clean slate and an opportunity. If we can be healthy all year, we can be pretty good."
Baez quietly is having a productive spring, hitting .409 after going 1-for-3 with an infield hit in an 8-5 win against the Indians on Saturday in a split-squad game at Goodyear Park.
With all the commotion surrounding Kris Bryant's contract status, Baez has been able to work in the shadows, just the way he prefers.
While Maddon was instrumental in allowing Baez to show his flair, which in turn made him one of the most popular players in the game, Baez has a new manager in David Ross, who is hoping to win with a more cohesive unit in 2020.
"It's pretty much the same," Baez said of Camp Rossy. "Just everyone getting their work in, getting ready for the season. The thing about Rossy is he's so positive. Everybody is so excited to have him around, and I'm excited, too, obviously.
"He's like Joe that way. Obviously it's a different mindset, but every time he talks he makes us feel better because he's a motivator. He knows how we feel and what adjustments we've got to make, so that's a good thing.
"But we've got to wait until the games start to see how everything goes."
While the consensus opinion is the Cubs will do whatever it takes to keep Baez under team control for most of the rest of the decade, there has been nothing to suggest they are close to extending him.
He knows this could be the last stand for many of the core players from 2016 but said he's not worried about what happens next.
"We'll see how everything goes on the business side, how many guys stay here," he said. "But it is what it is. You have to understand how far you're going (to last together) in this sport."
Baez seems unlikely to accept the kind of team-friendly deal Yelich just took to stay with the Brewers, and for good reason. He'll get a much higher average annual value than Yelich's nine-year, $215 million deal because his charisma and showmanship are almost as valuable to a franchise's box office as his hitting.
Cubs pitcher Jon Lester believes Baez is one of the "1-percenters" in baseball who can break the bank but noted the Cubs have another 1-percenter in Bryant.
"You can't keep 'em all," Lester said. "How many teams are like that? Well, maybe three that are like, that would sign all those guys and not think twice about being over the (luxury) tax.
"That's a tricky thing. When you have three or four of those 1-percent guy that you've got to give a 7- to 10-year deal to hold on to, that's tough."
Lester was a popular player in Boston for years, with two rings there to his name, but the Red Sox didn't try too hard to keep him and sent him to the A's in the summer of 2014 instead of losing him for nothing.
Like Bryant, Baez will be a free agent after the 2021 season, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he decides to test the market instead of signing a long-term extension.
"It's all up to what the players, what they want to do," Lester said. "I'm sure Theo (Epstein) and those guys have approached all of our guys and talked about it, but at the end of the day I don't blame anybody for turning anything down if they want to bet on themselves and go through the process."
The moral of the story: Cubs fans had better enjoy watching Baez while he's here, because nothing is promised in this game.
