The New England Patriots had an opportunity to go for it on fourth down against the Indianapolis Colts, who won 27-17. It was the kind of decision that had the chance to change the complexion of the game, with New England facing a fourth-and-goal from the 7-yard line.
They kicked a field goal — to no one’s surprise. It was, from an analytics standpoint, clearly the wrong decision. Statistically speaking, Belichick should have gone for it. The Patriots were trailing, 20-14, when they decided to take the field goal. That slimmed the lead to 20-17. The Colts then scored a quick touchdown and iced the game. It was over.
Belichick’s overly conservative decision-making has been a common theme this year. With the Patriots being one of four teams having finished Week 15, here are the team’s stats on 4th-down conversions.
Patriots on 4th down*:
Attempts: 11 (31st in the NFL)
Made: 6 (t-30th)
Conversion rate: 54.6% (14th)*This is before 28 teams play in Week 15.
— Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis) December 19, 2021
Why are the Patriots almost last in the league in attempts when they’re in the middle of the road on successful conversions? We tried to tackle the issue earlier this season, because it has been a common theme all year. Belichick has never properly explained. So let’s dive in.
