There are a few ways to… well, if not “beat” Patrick Mahomes, at least make him look a bit more mortal. You can throw all kinds of two-high coverage against him, and that works more often than not. In 2021, Mahomes completed 215 of 332 passes against two-deep looks for 2,532 yards, 1,401 air yards, nine touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a Positive Play Rate of 50.3%. Only Trevor Lawrence had more interceptions against two-deep coverage last season, and given the disaster Lawrence had to work with, we’re inclined to say that it doesn’t count.
You can also throw eight in coverage against him to constrict his openings and throwing lanes, as the Bengals did against him in the second half and in overtime of the AFC Championship game, and that turns out to be pretty effective, as well — especially since blitzing Mahomes is an invitation to absolute disaster for your defense.
What you probably don’t want to do is to throw a bunch of vanilla one-on-one coverage (and coverage busts) against him. Mahomes will go thermonuclear on you if you do, and for some reason, that’s what the Washington Commanders decided to do in the first half of their Saturday game against Kansas City.
As you could easily surmise, it did not go well. Mahomes was in for the first two drives of the game, both drives went 12 plays (for 82 and 87 yards), the Chiefs were 5-fot-5 converting third downs, both drives ended in touchdown passes from Mahomes to receiver Jody Fortson, and Mahomes finished his day completing 12 of 19 passes for 162 yards, those two touchdowns, and a passer rating of 125.3. Had Mahomes not had a couple of miscommunications with new receivers, things would have been even worse for Jack Del Rio’s defense.
Sadly, this is par for the course for the Football Team/Commanders under Del Rio. In 2020, when Del Rio became the defensive coordinator, Washington finished third in Defensive DVOA. In 2021, that fell to 27th (28th against the pass), and busted coverages were a common problem, despite a lot of talent in the secondary.
Last season, no defense allowed more passing touchdowns than Washington’s 34, to just 11 interceptions. That defense also allowed 400 catches on 597 attempts for 4,542 yards, a completion rate of 67.0%, a yards per attempt allowed of 7.6, an opponent passer rating of 100.9, and an opponent EPA of 67.90.
Based on how things looked against Mahomes, the Commanders may be in for a repeat performance. How did things go so wrong in such a bit hurry? There were a few reasons. We’ll start with basic coverage issues.
Where are these guys going?
On this pass from Mahomes to receiver Justin Watson, safety Bobby McCain vacated the middle of the field to help cornerback William Jackson III with receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Valdes-Scantling is a downfield threat, so there is some sense to working his way, but the problem here was the one-on-one matchup it gave Watson against cornerback Kamren Curl. These are good players in weird positions.
Juuuuuust a bit outside. pic.twitter.com/1q5KHVdLQM
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) August 20, 2022
Remember what we said about Mahomes’ miscommunications, and how things could have been even worse for Del Rio’s defense? Here, Valdes-Scantling just scalds cornerback Benjamin St-Juste from the slot, and had Mahomes not missed the timing and distance of the play, that would have been an easy six.
Saved by the miscommunication. pic.twitter.com/NoG0YleuN4
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) August 20, 2022
And here, the Commanders call one of the cardinal sins of any defense, at least in my opinion. Why, on the your first defensive play of the game, are you conceding the first down? Especially if the cornerback is Jackson, who has been one of the NFL’s better press-man cornerbacks going back to his days with the Bengals. Asking Jackson to play off like this is just wasting his talent. This was basically a practice rep for Valdes-Scantling. Again, we get that Valdes-Scantling is an estimable vertical threat, but at some point, you have to challenge receivers.
Very few things in football drive me crazier than this. Why in the Cinnamon Toast (redacted) are you playing past the sticks? pic.twitter.com/vk2OhadYbr
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) August 20, 2022
Mahomes being Mahomes.
Of course, there are times with Mahomes where you simply have to take the L and move on. Occasionally, you could be Buddy and Rex Ryan combined trying to scheme against him, and it wouldn’t matter. This completion to Watson is every problem you have when you face the Chiefs all rolled into one: The scramble routes, Mahomes throwing sidearm and outside of structure, and the demented route concepts. Can’t blame the Commanders for this one.
That’s an evil design. Option mesh? WTF? https://t.co/dLdtbTFjTC
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) August 20, 2022
The second touchdown to Fortson was similarly impossible. Curl has good coverage to the boundary, but Mahomes rolled to his left, and made this banger of a throw.
Mahomes out here in the second quarter throwing dimes, rolling to his L.
pic.twitter.com/TyYuOl8P6M— John Ellis (@1PantherPlace) August 20, 2022
Enjoying the occasional victory.
There was one play that stood out from the Commanders’ side — this pass deflection by Fuller on a deep pass to rookie receiver Skyy Moore. The Chiefs were trying to test Washington vertically, and Fuller just wasn’t having it.
This is an excellent job by Kendall Fuller on the outside. Tough matchup, concept is designed to get him 1-on-1 against a post-corner-post. Plays it perfectly, locats the ball and undercuts to bat it away. pic.twitter.com/ZFSMSUfPAo
— Mark Bullock (@MarkBullockNFL) August 20, 2022
Still, the extent to which opposing offenses are able to cinch Washington’s defense into problematic matchups remains… well, problematic. The Commanders have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, but until and unless things improve in coverage, it just might not matter at all.
