What’s it going to take to get to the 2019-2020 College Football Playoff? Here are the five things any one of the top America Athletic Conference stars has to do to get in.
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
With all apologies to everyone else in the American Athletic Conference, it’s going to be UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis and USF contending for the conference title. The winner of the league is going to be in the mix for the Group of Five champion’s spot in a New Year’s Six game.
But what if that could be so much more? What if everything breaks right and a Group of Five champion finally gets the call?
With the given that 1) the team has to win the American Athletic Conference title by 2) going 13-0, and 3) catching a break that at least three Power Five champions have at least two losses, here’s what each team need to do to get in.
5. USF Bulls
Step 1: Stop … the … run. The Bulls were gouged way too often last season – allowing 248 yards per game – and with Wisconsin and Georgia Tech to start the season, getting a whole lot nastier up front is a must right away.
Step 2: Beat Wisconsin and Georgia Tech. These are the street cred games on the slate. There’s a later date against BYU, but start out 2-0, and the national attention will come to Tampa.
Step 3: Again, D up. Charlie Strong is a terrific defensive coach whose defenses haven’t been so great lately. Texas struggled to tackle, and last year’s Bull team had the 10th-best defense in the AAC.
Step 4: Own home field. Wisconsin, SMU, BYU, Temple, Cincinnati, Memphis. All are going to be tough, and all are going to be in Raymond James. Go unbeaten at home, and then …
Step 5: Beat UCF on the road. The Knights have won the last two in the series and four of the last six. The Bulls won in Orlando 44-3 in 2016, but all they need to do this time around is get a victory by any margin.
NEXT: Memphis
4. Memphis Tigers
Step 1: Whack Ole Miss. The Tigers were able to do it in 2015 with a dominant 37-24 performance, and they get the Rebels at home this time around, too. It’s the only game against a Power Five team on the schedule – it’s the showcase moment right out of the gate on August 31st. But to do that …
Step 2: Step up the pass defense. The Tiger secondary wasn’t totally miserable, and this year’s group should be fine, but it got hit a bit too hard at times last season. Ole Miss will come out throwing, but that’s going to be it for the high-octane passing games until November – with all due respect to Caleb Evans and the ULM offense.
Step 3: Don’t lose focus. There are just two 2018 bowl teams on the slate – Tulane and at Temple – in the first nine games. Navy will be better, ULM is sneaky-dangerous, and Tulsa will put up a fight at home. Of course to even think about going to the CFP, Memphis has to be unbeaten, but even with four road games in a six game stretch, the away date at Temple is the only real concern. And then …
Step 4: Get ready to rock the finishing kick. At Houston, at USF, Cincinnati. The massive plus about this brutal final stretch is that it’s tough enough to give the Tigers the respect from the CFP they’ll need.
Step 5: FINALLY beat UCF for the American Athletic Conference title. If it’s anyone else from the East, fine, but beating the Knights and getting over that hump after losing two straight AAC titles would make a much bigger splash.
NEXT: Cincinnati
3. Cincinnati Bearcats
Step 1: Beat UCLA – again – and pull off the shocker at Ohio State. The Bearcats have lost all five all-tie meetings with the Buckeyes, but go 2-0 with wins over the two Power Five teams on the slate, and they’d be well on their way. But to do that …
Step 2: Be perfect. That means there can’t be the lost fumbles there were throughout last season – 13 in all – and there can’t be so many penalties. The Bearcats were among the worst teams in college football when it came to getting flagged. There’s no beating both the Bruins and Buckeyes without being close to perfect. And then …
Step 3: Keep up the energy and focus. Miami University is almost always a spirited and dangerous rivalry game, and then comes the trip to Marshall, and then comes the East showdown against UCF, and then comes the date at Houston. On the plus side, if UC is 5-0 after all of this. it really does belong in the College Football Playoff picture. And then …
Step 4: No, really. Keep up the energy and focus. Let’s say the Bearcats do ALL of that and really do get to 5-0 – don’t blow it against Tulsa or at East Carolina. The work isn’t even done after that. with at South Florida, Temple and at Memphis to close.
Step 5: Win the American Athletic Conference championship against – likely – Memphis or Houston in a rematch. However, again, if Cincinnati goes 13-0 against UCLA, at Ohio State, at Marshall, UCF, Houston, at USF, Temple, at Memphis, and in an AAC Championship, it has to get very, very strong consideration for a CFP spot.
NEXT: Houston
2. Houston Cougars
Step 1: Make the statement right out of the gate in the Dana Holgorsen era. In 2016, the Cougars kicked things off with a dramatically dominant 33-23 win over Oklahoma. But that was in Houston. Win this time around in Norman, and there’s your big massive splash to get everyone talking. However …
Step 2: The Cougars have to do it all again a few weeks later when a dangerous Washington State team comes to town. The Pac-12 Cougars aren’t as good as the Sooners, but they’re still strong enough to be a conference title contender. Houston can’t beat OU and lose to Wazzu. The big problem before both of those games is …
Step 3: The Houston pass defense has to be better than it was last year. Oh goodie … the team gets to fix the porous pass D by playing Oklahoma and Washington State. One of the nation’s worst all-around defenses gave up 276 passing yards per game, and later …
Step 4: Watch out for the trip to North Texas. If the Cougars really can survive Oklahoma and Washington State, they can’t let down against a Mean Green team that could hang up 500 passing yards. But let’s say that all happens and UH really is 8-0 …
Step 5: Beat UCF – likely – twice, survive Memphis, and don’t whiff against the Navy option attack. There will be landmines aplenty over the second half of the season, and then comes the AAC Championship. The Cougars have to be perfect to do this, but they’re going to be more like the type of team that screws up everyone else than one that can be perfect from pillar to post.
NEXT: UCF
1. UCF Knights
Step 1: Use the first two games of the season to get Brandon Wimbush up to speed. With Darriel Mack Jr. hurting, the offense has to keep on rolling and thriving with the former Notre Dame starter under center. The Knights play Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic to kick things off, and then it’s on.
Step 2: They’re the games UCF has been missing over the last two regular seasons – back-to-back Power 5 games to make a splash. Stanford has to make the trip to Orlando, and then the Knights are off to Pitt before diving into the American Athletic Conference schedule. It’s not a totally brutal back-to-back set of games, but it’ll have to do. This year, though …
Step 3: The defense will have to do its part a bit more. Granted, opponents had to open up the O to try to keep up the pace, but the UCF D did its part, too, by not being all that great, allowing 500 yards per game. The Knight offense will still be fantastic, but it might take a wee step back. To beat the big boys, the team has to get from all phases.
Step 4: No American Athletic Conference misfires. Winners of 16 straight conference games and two AAC championships, the Knights might be rolling in league action, but they got pushed really, really hard by Temple and Memphis last season. One loss, and that’s it, but this time around they have to go to Cincinnati, Temple and Tulane, and host Houston and USF. Even with all of that …
Step 5: It’s going to take everything breaking right. Two straight unbeaten regular seasons got UCF nothing more than a hearty handshake. The College Football Playoff committee doesn’t care, and it’s still a fight overall to get the world to buy in that a team from outside the Power Five should get in, mainly because it’s not playing a Power Five schedule. It’s going to take three Power Five champs to have two losses or more, and no real viable one-loss options to spoil the fun.
Oh yeah … and UCF has to go unbeaten with a conference championship for a third year in a row.
