What 16 teams still have a realistic shot at getting into the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff? Here’s our ranking of who’s still in it.
What teams are realistically in the College Football Playoff hunt?
All unbeaten Power Five programs still have a shot, and several one-loss teams do, but lose two games, and no. Pac-12 teams with one loss … no. Group of Five programs with one loss … no, and being unbeaten doesn’t do much, either.
Below is a ranking of teams that have the best chances to get one of the final four spots, and who has the best path to the playoff. This isn’t a prediction of the College Football Playoff rankings – it’s a ranking who has the best shot to get in.
16. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-0)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 21
Remaining Schedule: Rice, FIU, Conference USA Championship vs. UAB or UTSA
Path To The Playoff: There isn’t one, and it stinks that there’s no real path to a New Year’s Six game considering the Thundering Herd have been as dominant as any Group of Five program. The 17-7 win over Appalachian State is more impressive than it appears, and they handed Florida Atlantic its only loss of the year. However, even with an amazing D and seven double-digit point wins in seven games – the rest of the schedule stinks.
14. BYU Cougars (9-0)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 14
Remaining Schedule: San Diego State
Path To The Playoff: There isn’t one unless BYU can somehow schedule a few Pac-12 teams who won’t want to take the chance on a loss. The entire world would have to melt down, and even then it would be a tough call to put in a team with one strong win over Boise State on the road – there aren’t any Power Five wins.
14. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (8-0)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 20
Remaining Schedule: Liberty, at Troy, Sun Belt Championship vs. Louisiana
Path To The Playoff: It might seem crazy, but the College Football Playoff committee can twist this to potentially get Coastal Carolina close.
If the Chanticleers blow out a Liberty team that beat Virginia Tech and Syracuse – especially with the GameDay hype this weekend – and if they can win a rematch against Louisiana – who rocked Iowa State 31-14 in Ames – for the Sun Belt title, and if those are the only two losses Louisiana suffers all year, and if Iowa State is the Big 12 champion, there’s a far, far, far better resumé argument than Cincinnati or BYU could make.
13. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 7
Remaining Schedule: at Tulsa, American Athletic Conference Championship vs. Tulsa
Path To The Playoff: There really isn’t one, and it’s not helped by needing to beat Tulsa twice just to go undefeated – there won’t be any real credit for that second win. The Bearcats have been dominant, but there aren’t any Power Five wins, and taking down UCF by three isn’t as impressive as it seems.
However, if they go unbeaten and Florida loses to Alabama, and if Notre Dame beats Clemson, and if Ohio State doesn’t play in or win the Big Ten Championship, and if Miami loses to North Carolina, and if Texas A&M loses to Auburn, and if the Pac-12 champion has one loss … then maybe.
12. Colorado Buffaloes (3-0)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: Not Ranked
Remaining Schedule: at Arizona, Utah
Path To The Playoff: The easy path would be for USC to lose one of its last two games and for Colorado to win out. If that happens, the Buffaloes will be 5-0 in the Pac-12 Championship with a shot at being an unbeaten Power Five champ.
The only reason they’re lower on this list than USC and Washington is the tie-breaker scenario. If they win their last two, and USC wins its last two, USC goes to the Pac-12 Championship because it’ll be 5-0 against all Pac-12 teams, and the Buffs will have a win over San Diego State on its resumé and just three wins over teams from the Pac-12 South.
This goes for Washington and USC, too – they also need Clemson to lose, and an A&M loss would help, too. A Florida loss to Alabama could also be a must.
NEXT: Path To The Playoff: Teams that have a more likely shot at the College Football Playoff
11. Indiana Hoosiers (4-1)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 12
Remaining Schedule: at Wisconsin, Purdue
Path To The Playoff: It’s actually possible, but it would require some help.
Jack Tuttle will have to step in for Michael Penix at quarterback and be great as Indiana rolls by Wisconsin on the road, and the blows out Purdue to go 6-1 with the only loss coming in the thriller at Ohio State. And here’s where it gets ugly – the Hoosiers would need coronavirus issues to keep the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten Championship.
If IU gets there and rolls Northwestern, the College Football Playoff Committee might like the branding of beating Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and the Big Ten West champ, to go along with the acceptable loss at Ohio State, It might deep the one-loss Big Ten champion worthy, as long as a slew of other key things happen.
10. Miami Hurricanes (7-1)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 10
Remaining Schedule: North Carolina, Georgia Tech
Path To The Playoff: There’s one very easy path, but it’s not likely – it starts with Clemson losing to Virginia Tech. If that happens, and if Miami wins its last two games, it’s playing Notre Dame for the ACC title,. Iff it wins that to finish 10-1, it’s off to the College Football Playoff.
If Clemson beats the Hokies, the problem will be the theoretical argument. For this to work, Clemson has to win the ACC Championship and the CFP might have to decide on three teams getting in. Miami doesn’t have a great win, but it’s only loss is at Clemson 42-17, so in the same way Texas A&M can claim it’s one loss is at Alabama – no shame there – the Canes might have a beef.
Realistically, they’ll need Ohio State to not win the Big Ten title, Alabama to destroy Florida, and for Notre Dame to lose once before the ACC Championship.
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CFP Top 25 Prediction | Week 13 Early Lines
Bowl Projections | Week 13 Scoreboard
9. Northwestern Wildcats (5-1)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 8
Remaining Schedule: Illinois, Big Ten Championship vs. Ohio State or Indiana
Path To The Playoff: There’s a cleaner path than you might think – even if it’s not likely.
If Ohio State can get to the Big Ten Championship, Northwestern is in the College Football Playoff if it pulls off the upset after getting by Illinois in the regular season finale. However, if Northwestern plays Indiana – if Ohio State isn’t eligible to get into the Big Ten title game – then nah.
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 4
Remaining Schedule: at Michigan State, Michigan
Path To The Playoff: One MASSIVE caveat here. If the Buckeyes are able to play their last two games against Michigan State and Michigan, put them No. 1 on this list.
If they can be healthy enough to play, and win both, they’ll go to the Big Ten Championship to face Northwestern and be no worse than the College Football Playoff two-seed – assuming they win out – playing in the Rose Bowl.
However, if the Buckeyes can’t play one of its last two games and is ineligible for the Big Ten title, then it’s going to take a whole lot of path-clearing to get there.
At 4-0 or 5-0 with no Big Ten title, the Buckeyes could use a Texas A&M loss, a one-loss Pac-12 champion, a Clemson loss to Notre Dame, and an Alabama win over Florida. That’s all possible, but basically, the Buckeyes will need a ton of help if they don’t win the Big Ten title
7. Washington Huskies (3-0)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: Not Ranked
Remaining Schedule: Stanford, at Oregon
Path To The Playoff: The Huskies might not have the sizzle, but if they can get to the Pac-12 Championship unbeaten, and if they can get by an unbeaten Colorado or Washington to be 6-0 with a Power Five Championship, they’ll have a shot.
6. USC Trojans (3-0)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 18
Remaining Schedule: Washington State, at UCLA
Path To The Playoff: The Trojans HAVE to look great in their final two games and get to the Pac-12 Championship – Colorado has to be out of the mix somehow. They also might need Washington to get there unbeaten, but no matter what, if they go 6-0 with a Power Five championship, they’ll likely have the leg up over Ohio State if it doesn’t win the Big Ten title.
5. Texas A&M Aggies (6-1)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 5
Remaining Schedule: at Auburn, at Tennessee
Path To The Playoff: Looks are going to matter here. If Texas A&M rolls past Auburn and Tennessee, and Florida – who the Aggies beat 41-38 – looks great over the final three games, it could slip in if Bama beats the Gators handily in the SEC Championship.
It would be a huge help if Clemson lost once more and/or Ohio State doesn’t play in or win the Big Ten Championship. A&M needs to be the most attractive one-loss non-champion on the board, and there’s still a shot if Florida beats Alabama – three SEC teams could certainly get in.
NEXT: Path To The Playoff: 4 teams with the clearest paths to the College Football Playoff
Path To The Playoff: 4 teams with the clearest paths to the College Football Playoff
All four of these teams aren’t likely to get in, but each of the four has a crystal-clear path.
4. Florida Gators (7-1)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 6
Remaining Schedule: at Tennessee, LSU, (likely) SEC Championship vs. Alabama
Path To The Playoff: It’s a wee bit tricky. There can’t be a loss to Tennessee or LSU, and the Gators are in if they win out, including a victory over Alabama in the SEC Championship. However, if they blowout Tennessee and LSU and lose to Alabama in a classic, there’s an outside chance they could still slip in as the No. 4 seed.
3. Clemson Tigers (8-1)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 3
Remaining Schedule: at Virginia Tech, (likely) ACC Championship vs. (most likely) Notre Dame
Path To The Playoff: Win two games and get in. The Tigers are out of the ACC Championship if they lose to Virginia Tech and Miami wins, and they’re almost certainly out if they beat the Hokies but lose a second time to Notre Dame.
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-0)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 2
Remaining Schedule: Syracuse, at Wake Forest, (likely) ACC Championship vs. (most likely) Clemson
Path To The Playoff: The Irish aren’t in the ACC Championship yet – they have to win one of the last two games to get in. They’re in the College Football Playoff if the win the ACC Championship going unbeaten or have one loss, and if they’re unbeaten going into the conference title game, they’re almost certainly in if the lose to – most likely – Clemson as long as they’re not blown out.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0)
CFP Week 1 Ranking: 1
Remaining Schedule: at LSU, SEC Championship vs. (most likely) Florida
Path To The Playoff: It’s simple – win one of the last two games. Even if Alabama loses to LSU, it’s in if it beats Florida for the SEC Championship. Even if it loses to Florida – and even if it’s roasted – it’ll still likely be a lock to get in.
Rankings AP | Coaches | CFN 1-127 Rankings
CFP Top 25 Prediction | Week 13 Early Lines
Bowl Projections | Week 13 Scoreboard
