What’s it going to take to get to the 2019-2020 College Football Playoff? Here are the five things the Pac-12 has to do to get in.
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What has to happen for the Pac-12 to get a team into the College Football Playoff? Along with the obvious – just win everything, and get in – here are five key steps for the conference to make it.
5. Win A Big Freaking Non-Conference Game Already
Outside of a random victory over Notre Dame here, or a random victory over Notre Dame there, when was the last time the Pac-12 won a really big non-conference game on a national scale.
Arizona State beat Michigan State last season, but the Spartans turned out to be mediocre.
As it turned out, Auburn wasn’t anything special, and it whacked the eventual Pac-12 champion Washington team 21-16 in the opener last season.
On the flip side, UCLA was embarrassed at home by Cincinnati, the Kevin Sumlin Arizona debut was a flop with losses to BYU and Houston, and USC got destroyed by Texas.
It’s hard to get noticed by the rest of the college football world if you’re not doing anything interesting.
This year, the Pac-12 needs to generate a buzz from Day One.
Arizona has to crush Hawaii on August 24. That’s not a big game, but the world will be watching.
Utah … beat BYU. Stanford … beat Northwestern. USC … beat Fresno State. And most of all, Oregon has GOT to beat Auburn in AT&T Stadium.
Along the way during the season …
NEXT: Wipe Out Notre Dame
4. Wipe Out Notre Dame
And hope the Irish win at Georgia on September 21st.
It didn’t help the Pac-12’s overall profile last season when the Irish took care of Stanford in South Bend and got past Stanford to finish 12-0. This year’s Notre Dame team isn’t as good, but there can’t be losses in the rematch games.
First, it would do wonders if there’s a shocking upset by Brian Kelly’s club at Georgia to up the buzz, and it would be wonderful if the Irish were 5-0 before hosting USC.
The Trojans need that game. Clay Helton needs that game. The Pac-12 needs that game.
Stanford gets the Irish in Palo Alto to close out the regular season, and there can’t be a slip. The Cardinal won’t get through the season unbeaten, but they might be just good enough to get to the finish at 10-1 if everything breaks right.
More than anything else, people will watch those two games against the Irish. The College Football Playoff selection process is still an opinion-based world – the more big Pac-12 wins, the better.
NEXT: USC Needs To Be USC Again
3. USC Needs To Be USC Again
It’s great when a Washington, or an Oregon, or a Stanford, or a Utah does big things, but across the college football landscape, the perception of the league changes when USC is terrific.
It shouldn’t be that way, but from a prestige factor, of course the biggest-name program has to be solid.
It doesn’t matter to Clemson that the rest of the ACC isn’t strong, but how much better is the league’s cachet when Florida State and Miami are a thing?
The same goes for the Big Ten – it’s a big deal when Michigan and Ohio State are rolling. The Big 12 needs Oklahoma and Texas to be good, only so more people pay attention.
That goes for the Pac-12.
A 5-7 USC that’s getting rocked by Texas and sputters and coughs its way through life is a problem. Last year, had Washington State been able to beat Washington and go on to win the Pac-12 title and finish 12-1, it would’ve been – at best – sixth in the CFP pecking order because it lost to a mediocre USC.
The Trojans don’t have to be amazing, but they do need to get by Fresno State, at BYU, and at Notre Dame in the non-conference slate, and they need to hover around the ten-win mark.
They need to be good enough so that beating them matters.
NEXT: Pick A Lane In The North
2. Oregon … Washington … Stanford … It Doesn’t Matter
Pac-12 North, just don’t wipe out your entire division.
One teams needs to rise up from the pack, but the division might just be too good to do that.
Oregon State isn’t a free space, but it’s close. After that, Cal has one of the nation’s nastier defenses, Washington State is going to be amazing again as long as the quarterback play is solid, and Washington, Oregon and Stanford are all good enough to potentially win the conference.
It’s a given that Oregon has to beat Auburn to start the season, but it has to go to both Stanford and Washington. Considering the Ducks have dates at USC and Arizona State, too, they might have to sweep the Dawgs and Cardinal, or else they’ll have to be perfect.
Stanford has to deal with a date at UCF and Notre Dame, but it also gets Washington at home. The Huskies have the easiest overall schedule of the division’s big three teams – other road games at BYU, Arizona, Oregon State and Colorado – but winning in Palo Alto could be a must.
Or Washington State has to rip through everyone – and it might be good enough to do just that.
No matter how this all works, the division has to pick a lane. One has to emerge and get to the Pac-12 Championship at 11-1, and then …
NEXT: Get Help. Lots Of It
1. The Pac-12 Championship Winner Might Need Some Help
A one-loss Pac-12 champion wouldn’t have been in the College Football Playoff last season. It wouldn’t have been close.
A one-loss Pac-12 champion wouldn’t have been in the College Football Playoff two seasons ago, although it would’ve had a strong argument over an Alabama team that didn’t even win its own division.
A one-loss Pac-12 champion wouldn’t have been in the College Football Playoff in 2015, but there would’ve been an interesting debate.
It’s not that the Pac-12 can’t get in – Oregon was a No. 2 seed in the first CFP, and Washington was a No. 4 see in 2016 – but in the overall pecking order of conferences, it’s a hard sell.
Based on perceptions going into the season. if all other things are equal and all five Power Five conference champs go 11-1, the SEC and Big Ten champions would be locks, and then it would be a battle among the other three. That 2016 Washington team was helped by Oklahoma losing two early games.
Go 13-0, you Pac-12 champion, and you’ll get in – all five Power Five conference champs won’t go unbeaten. But this season, the conference is far better and far more dangerous, so a perfect champion is more than unlikely.
A two-loss SEC champion would probably get in, but a two-loss Pac-12 champion? Not a chance. The Pac-12 needs the ACC, Big Ten or Big 12 champion to finish with at least two losses, and it’ll have to hope the SEC isn’t so good that two teams get in.
Or, one of the Pac-12 teams can be just that good and take care of business itself.
