What’s it going to take to get to the 2019-2020 College Football Playoff? Here are the five things that have to happen for Alabama and Clemson to not make the CFP.
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Of course Alabama and Clemson are going to make the College Football Playoff … maybe.
Here’s the premise – how is it possible for both Alabama and Clemson to not get into the College Football Playoff?
Unless you’re trying to be Captain Hot Take, of course you’re picking the Crimson Tide and Tigers to get back to the CFP for the fifth straight season. Or, maybe you’re picking one, but not both, which isn’t quite as wacky but is still a bit out there considering these are the two best teams coming into the season.
But what if the impossible happens and Bama and Clemson both miss out? These five things probably have to go wrong.
5. Injuries
Both teams have suffered their share of injury issues, like all do, but for the most part they’ve been able to survive and keep going thanks to all the ridiculous talent waiting in the wings for a turn. A lot of times with both Bama and Clemson, the Next Man Up is the Best Man Up.
These teams are both so good that one lost star here, or a few issues to a particular position there, can likely be overcome by all the rest of the superstars pulling their weight.
But what if Trevor Lawrence is out for an extended period of time? It would’ve been nice to have Kelly Bryant or Hunter Johnson around as an insurance policy, but they’re obviously long gone. If something happens to the franchise star, it’ll be up to Syracuse-win hero Chase Brice to play a huge role. While he’d be more than fine, he’s not going to be the No. 1 pick in the draft.
As good as Tua Tagovaolia is and has been, he’s also been beaten up in his short career with wrist and leg injuries playing a prominent role. Nick Saban won a national title with Jake freaking Coker, but even though Mac Jones can e more than fine, it would be nice if Jalen Hurts was still around.
It’s more than just the quarterbacks, though. For this to happen and for Bama and Clemson to miss out on the CFP because of injuries, both teams would have to suffered an unfair array of key ones. Realistically, it could be the only way they can be knocked out – it might have to come down to brutally harsh bad luck.
Ask the Golden State Warriors how a sure-thing can go so horribly, horribly wrong so quickly.
NEXT: Clemson’s reload is a rebuild
4. The reload on the Clemson defensive front seven stalls
Not even Alabama – okay, maybe Alabama – has been able to make the wholesale changes to one area like Clemson has with as much success.
It didn’t matter that just about the entire D line was gone from the 2014 team. The new guys up front in 2015 helped take the Tigers to the College Football Playoff National Championship game. And it didn’t seem to matter that almost all of those defensive linemen were gone the next season as the Next Men Up helped take the Tigers to a national title.
But there’s bound to be a slight bit of a hiccup after losing Clelin Ferrell, Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence, Albert Huggins, and Austin Bryant, right?
Probably not. Xavier Thomas is going to be a killer on the outside, Nyles Pinckney should be fine in the interior, and a whole slew of young guys are waiting in the wings to shine. It’s Clemson – the place is a machine for defensive linemen.
But what if the front seven really does need time to reload after losing one of the greatest lines in the history of college football?
Hybrid linebacker Isaiah Simmons is back after leading the team in tackles, but six veteran starters who were on a laser-focused mission have to be replaced. No one gets better after losing six of the top seven players on the defensive front.
Again, okay, Clemson does. But …
Maybe the group is too inconsistent to start the season. Maybe they don’t mesh, don’t have the same chemistry, or just aren’t close to being as good as expected. Maybe Dabo and the coaching staff just don’t have the right formula.
The rest of the ACC has to pray for a rebuilding process.
NEXT: Texas A&M becomes awesome
3. Texas A&M becomes awesome
Clemson hasn’t had too many issues with Florida State over the last four seasons, but before 2014, Jimbo Fisher’s Seminole program was a major problem, rising up to become among the elite of the college football elite with the swagger and attitude to match.
2013 Clemson appeared to be poised and ready to make that turn into the elite of the elite under Dabo Swinney, getting off to a dominant 6-0 start with a huge national showdown at home against Florida State as one of the year’s spotlight games. Just when it Tiger program appeared ready to announce its arrival as a national title player …
Florida State 51, Clemson 14.
Is Fisher’s 2019 Texas A&M team about to be at the same level as those FSU teams of the 2010s? No, but the program is on the rise and gets to play the roles of both the hunter and spoiler for not just Clemson, but Alabama as well.
Johnny Manziel might have given the Crimson Tide fits, but the epic Aggie win was all the way back in 2012. Bama has won six straight in the series since then and is 9-2 all-time in the series. However, if A&M can somehow upset Clemson, it would almost certainly be – if the Aggies don’t lose to Auburn – No. 1 vs. No. 2 when Bama has to make the trip to College Station on October 12th in what will be an all-time electric atmosphere no matter what.
But there’s that little matter of the Aggies actually beating the Tigers – good luck
Texas A&M is getting dismissed by many going into the season mostly because the schedule is just too hard – at Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, at Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, at Georgia, at LSU – those are the highlights. It doesn’t mean this team isn’t going to be fantastic – it means it’s going to be almost impossible to get into the College Football Playoff chase with a too-brutal slate.
But the date in Death Valley comes right out of the gate, with A&M getting a week to tune-up against Texas State, first. There’s a week off to rest up before facing the Crimson Tide, but Nick Saban’s team gets an extra week, too.
This is a very, very, very dangerous A&M team, with the lines to hold up with the Tigers and Tide, and the veteran skill players to attack and keep pushing.
It’s asking for entirely too much for Jimbo’s team to beat both of the powerhouses, but if it could absolutely pull off special against one of them.
NEXT: The Alabama coaching turnover matters
2. The Alabama coaching turnover matters
Bring Alabama your tired, your poor, your huddled coaches yearning for a job.
It helps the cause when you’re able to have a staff of brand-name coaches who were/will be head men elsewhere. On the good side, the Bama assistants are elite coaching minds and true professionals wanted for the big openings. On the bad side, they’re mostly rentals.
All coaches are looking for the next gig up, but it’s truly different at Alabama. The egos have to be sublimated with no question whatsoever whose running the show, and things don’t always mesh quite right,
But it all worked just fine for the first 14 games of last season.
Former offensive coordinator Mike Locksley was the one who helped run one of the most devastating attacks in college football history, and now he’s the Maryland head coach.
Tosh Lupoi handled another great Bama defense, and now the former defensive coordinator is coaching up the Cleveland Brown defensive front.
Josh Gattis is Michigan’s offensive coordinator after handling the amazing Tide wide receivers, and quarterback coach Dan Enos is Manny Diaz’s offensive coordinator at Miami.
Boo hoo, it’s Alabama – so it brought back Steve Sarkisian as the offensive coordinator and former Rutgers head man Kyle Flood to coach the offensive line. The place is a factory for great coaching minds, but it still has to work.
Saban quipped that it’s hard for a staff to maintain 100% focus – even on something as big as the national title – when some of the parts have to get ready for their new jobs. This year’s staff will probably be kept on an even tighter leash than normal.
The disaster against Clemson aside, the staff that was in place last season helped put together one of the greatest regular seasons ever. This new bunch will be expected to do the same.
NEXT: They both … lose?
1. They could both be like so many other amazing teams and just, you know, lose two games
We’re taking it for granted that Clemson and Alabama are doing something absolutely amazing.
College football history is loaded with programs that went on mega-long winning streaks and dominated for years, if not decades. But in the current era, there’s more of an equal footing among the top conferences in terms of facilities and resources, and the schedules to get through are much, much harder now.
No, the ACC isn’t as tough as the SEC, but other than the non-conference games against Charlotte and Wofford, there isn’t one other game – be it at North Carolina, at Louisville, or against Wake Forest – that the Tigers can completely blow off as a light scrimmage.
The same goes for Alabama. Oh sure, it’ll beat Duke, and it should roll by New Mexico State and Western Carolina, but even the supposed layup games against Ole Miss and Arkansas are against real, live teams with plenty of talent.
It’s not just about who can beat Clemson or Alabama; it’s about the accumulation of body blows throughout an entire season. For Alabama to go eight years in a row without losing two games in the regular season – including conference championships – and for Clemson to do it four seasons straight in today’s day and age is amazing.
It’s so incredible that you can’t just assume it’s going to happen yet again – even if it probably will.
Think about how fine a line there is between elite greatness and being one rung below – just ask Georgia and Ohio State from last season.
Can you find two losses on Alabama’s schedule? Not unless you’re trying to make a call. But could the Tide lose at Texas A&M, or to LSU, or at Auburn, or at Mississippi State? Of course. Could it then lose to Georgia or Florida in the SEC Championship, too? It’s hardly an insane call.
Good luck finding any losses on Clemson’s slate, but could it lose to Texas A&M? Sure. Could it get tripped up by Syracuse for the second time in three seasons with the game coming on the road right after the date with the Aggies? After the last two battles between the two, it’ll at least be interesting.
Could there be a strange shootout loss somewhere like there was in the 43-42 firefight against Pitt in 2016? Could a close battle like last year’s game against Syracuse go the wrong way? Yeah, it’s possible.
Could Virginia come up with something amazing in an ACC Championship, or could Miami rise up and rock on the right day? No one will predict it, but it could happen.
Georgia has only made one College Football Playoff. Ohio State has only been in twice. Oklahoma hasn’t played for a CFP national title.
LSU has never made it. Neither has Texas A&M, or Texas, or Michigan, or Wisconsin, or Penn State, or Auburn, or Florida, or USC, or Stanford.
It’s really, really, really hard just to get into the four-team tournament, much less come up with what Alabama and Clemson have put together. There’s going to be a slip at some point.
