What’s does Clemson have to do to get to the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff? What’s the path?
The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will be played on January 1st, 2021, and the College Football Playoff National Championship will be in Miami on Monday, January 11th.
What does Clemson have to do to get into the fun for a sixth straight season? What are the five steps in the Path to the Playoff?
Path to the College Football Playoff, Step 1
The every-other-year pattern isn’t a bad thing.
The 2016 team went into the offseason really, really mad.
For all the fun and games around Dabo Swinney and the program, there appeared to be a serious business attitude that offseason after Deshaun Watson and company lost a thriller of a national championship to Alabama. There was a loss to Pitt along the way, but the Tigers went on to roll through Ohio State and then beat Bama for the CFP championship.
The 2017 team was good enough to earn the No. 1 playoff seed – despite a loss at Syracuse – and was dumped by the Crimson Tide in the CFP semifinal Sugar Bowl.
The 2018 version got back an ultra-motivated defensive front, welcomed in Trevor Lawrence, and ripped through just about everything in its path – at least after a scare from Syracuse – for a 15-0 season and a national title.
So last year’s team came up short against an epic-hot LSU team in a dream season – hardly any shame losing to that team.
Clemson knows how to dial it up that extra notch a year after a disappointment, and all that national title loss might mean is that the beast is angered.
Of course, it helps when you come up with great recruiting class after great recruiting class to restock the shelves. Even so …
NEXT: The area the Tigers need to work on will be …
Path to the College Football Playoff, Step 2
Reload on the offensive front
The Tigers have to keep the franchise superstar in one piece, and they have to pave the way for the other main man, too.
Everything will be fine on the offensive line in time, but four starters have to be replaced on the offensive front with just OT Jackson Carman returning.
The Clemson quarterbacks have been epic over the last several seasons, the receivers breathtaking, and the defenses have been loaded with all-timer college football talents. But the consistency of the offensive front five – even if it doesn’t always have the elite NFL star power of other top teams – that’s been the underappreciated rock that everything works around.
Every time the Tiger offensive line has been asked to hold its own in big games, it’s been able to do that.
The offseason will be about coming up with the right combination up front, and no one’s expecting anything epic right away, but as long as Trevor Lawrence isn’t getting beaten up, and if Travis Etienne is able to get a sliver of daylight to run through, the line will be doing its job.
It’ll have a few games to get everything together, but …
NEXT: Get rolling early
Path to the College Football Playoff, Step 3
Get off to a hot start and avoid the lull game.
Alabama might have lost two games last season, but it’s been brilliant under Nick Saban at – for the most part – consistently rolling through game after game without any real problems against the mediocre teams.
Ohio State had that problem in key losses in 2017 and 2018, but stunning defeats to Iowa and Purdue, respectively, served as the fire needed to focus the 2019 team under Ryan Day. There was barely a blip.
Last year, it almost seemed like it just wanted to get to the College Football Playoff in September. It woke up and was breathtaking, but only after almost losing North Carolina in a 21-20 thriller.
The 2018 team was special, but that came after surviving a scare against Syracuse. The 2017 team had a few early fights before losing at SU. Granted, the starting Tiger quarterbacks were hurt in both games, but they were still rough games against Orange teams that shouldn’t have been that hard to put away.
The ACC still isn’t going to be the SEC or the Big Ten, but it’ll be better. Beating a good Louisville team right away is a must, and dealing with Virginia in an ACC Championship rematch should be a thing – but both games are at home.
Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson has been fantastic at tweaking and improving as the seasons have gone on, but if there’s a whiff somewhere in the first half of the campaign – like on the road at Florida State – then there’s going to be reason for concern.
The ACC Coastal champion should be solid, South Carolina will be dangerous again – okay, maybe someday – and there’s what might be the non-conference game of the year in college football …
NEXT: Catholics vs. Clemson
Path to the College Football Playoff, Step 4
Beat Notre Dame
Oh sure, beating Louisville and Virginia won’t be without its charm, and getting by Florida State would get a headline in the national papers, but any team worthy of even thinking about the College Football Playoff should be 8-0 with this schedule.
And then comes November 7th against Notre Dame.
It’s a massive game, but it might not be the end of the world if the Tigers lose – at least respectably.
Again, the first eight games are all winnable, and the final three against The Citadel, at Wake Forest and South Carolina shouldn’t be a problem. However, beat what should be a nasty Irish team, and that should all but end any worries about getting into the CFP. That would be the buffer in case there’s a misfire anywhere else, including in the ACC Championship.
It’s still way early, but unlike last year – when Clemson failed to beat a single team in its first 12 games that finished in the top 25, and Virginia finished 25th in the Coaches Poll – Louisville, Virginia, Florida State, and – don’t laugh, really – NC State and South Carolina should/could all at least flirt with time spent in the various rankings.
It’ll be a stronger schedule, and that’s a good thing for the Tigers.
If Notre Dame beats Wisconsin and a likely-improved Stanford on the way to 8-0, it’ll be in the top five when the showdown in South Bend is on.
That’s another good thing for the Tigers. All they need to do is …
NEXT: Go unbeaten. Duh.
Path to the College Football Playoff, Step 5
Go unbeaten and win the ACC Championship
Yeah, no kidding.
2018 Ohio State was the only one-loss team to win its Power Five conference championship and not make the College Football Playoff in the six year CFP era, and every unbeaten Power Five champ has been in without a problem.
Naturally, if Clemson goes 13-0 and takes its sixth straight ACC title it’ll go on to the playoff no matter what as the No. 1 seed, and No. 2 at worst.
But the door might be open at 12-1, even if it’s just a crack. Worse yet, that door could be wide open if it doesn’t win the ACC Championship.
At least in theory, the past doesn’t matter when it comes to the College Football Playoff committee deciding on who gets in – it’s supposedly a clean slate to start the playoff rankings, and everything starts over each week.
However, if everything appears to be equal, of course the program that managed to win two of the last four national championships is going to get in.
But what if things aren’t equal?
What if Clemson loses to a Notre Dame team that has a not-that-bad schedule and finishes 11-1 or better?
Always assume the SEC and Big Ten champs will take a spot, and always be concerned that Oklahoma, or an Oregon, or a second SEC or Big Ten team could be lurking.
Again, as long as Clemson has just one loss and takes the ACC Championship there almost certainly won’t be any real concerns – it’ll be almost a lock to get in.
But go 13-0, and the chance of missing out is gone.
